Monday, May 12, 2008


Now that I have my trusty notebook I can give a more detailed outlook on what the probabilities tells us about Tuesday.

It was much as I expected, except there is a bit more urgency involved.
If you have decided to carry your call options overnight then you need to release yourself of them no later than 9:45am est.

9:45 is also the time that we will want to purchase in the money SPY put options and I stress in the money. Not at the money or just out of the money, but IN THE MONEY. You are going to pay a little more for these options, but the reduction in risk will more than offset the increased price you will pay.

From 9:45am we should work our way lower finding some support in the 11:15 to 11:30 time frame. This should lead to a consolidation until 12:30 - 12:45 when we should break lower once again and not find the days low until 3:00pm. From there I would expect a small rally of sorts that could retrace close to 50% of whatever downside damage we have been subjected to up to this point. With this in mind, it would be appropriate for buyer of the PUT options to exit 3/4 of their position in the 3pm time frame and let the remaining 1/4 of the position stay in place with a break even stop loss. This will allow us to capitalize on a market that may in fact not even have the strength to put together a rally of any consequence.

Don't forget also that we have the Monday/Tuesday reversal pattern on our side for tomorrow so any strength that Tuesday brings can be sold or shorted with low risk.

Make sure you take a look at the chart below as it gives and excellent real time example of what may be going on in the intermediate term. This certainly does not guarantee that this is what will come to pass, but it is a very good time to watch and see if the pattern completes.

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