Friday, May 16, 2008

Interesting Correlation

Below are 2 weekly charts of the NASDAQ cash index.
The first chart is the major low that was put into place in 2003 and the second chart is the current low and subsequent rally.

You will notice quite a few similarities of the two patterns all the way down to both of them being 9 weeks long from ultimate low to ultimate high and both rallies being stalled out by the upper Bollinger Band.

If the market were to follow this current pattern on a weekly basis, then we could expect a sizable pullback from here. The bullish tone to this pattern is that once the pullback of 62% was completed we entered into a very strong rally phase that carried stock prices markedly higher.

One thing at a time though as we need first to see if indeed the market stalls at the current Bollinger band which held the market back this week and we are brushing up against as of this Friday.

I will be posting my Weekend Commentary later, I just thought there was an interesting correlation here and I wanted to bring it to your attention.

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