Saturday, March 17, 2007

Earnings Yield

Lets talk a little about the value measurement of earnings yield.
While this measurement is being more widely followed, it remains a very key tool is
obtaining the true value of a security.

The earnings yield is nothing more that the opposite or reciprocal of the P/E ratio.
It helps to put value in a more easily understandable light as it can be measured against
the prevailing 10 year note yield.

The premise is that if the earnings yield on the market or whatever stock you wish to measure is greater than the 10 year note yield then the security is undervalued. Now this is a gross simplification of the theory, but it gives you a reference point.

Don't forget also that the 10 year T- note yield is a before tax measurement and the earnings yield is an after tax measurement. Therefore even if the earnings yield is less that the 10 year note yield, there is still a possability of a security being undervalued.

This gives you a very strong starting point as to where to go from here with the tool. Especially the after tax aspect of the earnings yield.

Here is an example of the calculation for the earnings yield on a stock.
Let us suppose a stock has a P/E ratio of 12. In order to get the earnings yield we just invert the 12/1 fraction to 1/12 and the yield comes to 8.33%. Compare this to the 4.5% 10 year note yield and you have quite the undervalued security. Maybe even more so than the 8.33% dictates as this is the after tax yield. To convert it to the before tax yield simply multiply the 8.33% by 1.33 for the 33% corporate tax bracket. The before tax yield becomes 11.08% which makes this security very undervalued.

You can also use the earnings yield of an entire index such as the S&P 500 to get a feel for the current state of value in the market. Above this post you will see a visual of the current earnings yield model that shows the S&P 500 to be quite undervalued. This does not take into account the after tax effect which would move the target for the S&P 500 even higher.
The earnings yield is a great tool and should be in every good investors toolbox.

Friday, March 16, 2007

Major Bearish Sentiment is Very Bullish

Here is but one piece of the puzzle that shows the wide spread disparity amongst matket players.

It seems that since the start of this bull run in 2003 that any decline in prices, no matter how insignificant is met with worry, toil and trouble.

This bodes very well for my long term outlook on equities.

Put/Call ratio's are at historical highs!

Could rates test their historical Lows

Seems to be Something Going on Here!
Take a Look and Tell me what You Think!!

Seems to be a slight pattern here with the lower 70 day ema Envelope band!!

Thursday, March 15, 2007

First Post

Sorry about how messy my first post was, it will get better with time.

Where the Equity Markets Stand Now

It appears to me that a major low in the S&P 500 was reached on 3/14/07 with the strong reversal day.

There are many technical indications that the low has been put in place as well as a very large level of fear amongst investors. These are the needed ingredients for a strong move up.

Nothing from a fundamental perspective has changed, so as with a company, if the price gets hit and the fundamentals remain strong then buy buy buy!!

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