Saturday, July 21, 2007

Keep The Stop Close

Corn is at the crossroads here.

The second leg down has not equaled the first leg down in price, so there is room for a bear market rally here. However, the lows were taken out and this would call for lower prices yet still.

The best plan of action is a tight trailing stop that will lock in our profits on corn should the market begin to rally.

One thing remains clear and that is the fact that the ultimate bear market low for corn has a long way to go before it gets here.

After The Correction Look To Corus

They say a picture is worth a thousand words.
In the case of Corus (cors) it will be many multitudes of a thousand.

Keep an eye on this one as it will offer a chance of a lifetime in the very near future.

Friday, July 20, 2007

If You Talk About It Long Enough You Are Bound To Be Right : )

For those of you who have rode this great bull market in oil and oil related stocks I say
great job on massive profits!

What I also say however is that all good things come to an end and with the vast majority of investors extreme bullishness on oil stocks it is starting to look like 1980-1981 all over again.
In case you are to young, take a look back at the late 70's and early 80's and you will see a very eerie resemblance to now.

Thursday, July 19, 2007


While Nanotechnology is an excellent long term investment, the sector currently looks rather weak on an intermediate term basis.

Use any weakness to add to existing positions.

How Many Chances Do You Want

If you have yet to begin your purchase of White Mountain, then now is an excellent time.

The stock has pulled back and looks to push higher, perhaps sharply so!

Remember this is an Ultra Long Term position and the Next Berkshire Hathaway, You simply have no excuse on this one.

Simply Way Over Done

While it may prove to be just a bit early to purchase AHM, I simply cannot resist the bargain prices it has reached.

I plan on purchasing my line over time just in case all the downside has yet to terminate.

This would be considered very Aggressive

Long Term Perspective On Interest Rates

The Secular Monthly chart of the 10 year note is clearly stating that the next major move in the price of the notes will be up.

This thus translates into lower interest rates.

Unleaded Looks Very Weak

The Continued Demise of Crude Oil

I realize that we continue to get battered with all the $100 oil opinions, but I continue to stick
with my assessment that the petro complex is in the process of a long term top and the next major move will be DOWN!!

Take a look at the C.O.T. Data:

Big Money is Selling, Selling, Selling
Fund Money are Huge Buyers
Small Traders are Huge Buyers

This all adds up to lower crude oil prices.

Sunday, July 15, 2007

TNH - Thank You!

It was an incredible ride, much higher than I thought it could go in such a short time.

The party however is temporarily over and now I look for a pull back into the low 70's before
I get back in.

The great part is that once this pullback has completed, the rally that will ensue will be even more powerful then what just occurred, so keep a close eye on this one.

Get Ready For the Unexpected!! - American Cars Back In Vogue

The Auto Sector is the next to bloom.

The purchases by private equity of Chrysler and Tower Automotive could not have been better timed. They were purchased at fire sale prices and if I could have gotten in on any of them I would have!!

Ford offers some great potential!!

Pfizer - MRK all over again!!

While Pfizer may appear to most to be in a world of trouble, it is not how it should be viewed.

PFE offers exceptional value at these prices and as I have said before, it is in much the same
position that MRK was before it promptly doubled!!

Not to mention the stock offers a 41/2 % dividend yield.

If PFE decides to dip back into the $22-$23 area, please feel free to buy everything you can get your hands on. Your Children will thank you.

MRK - A Lesson To Apply To PFE NOW!!

I have spoken about MRK in the past and especially the bargain prices we were given in the upper 20's.

The stock has more to go on the upside, perhaps the $70-$80 range, however it needs a pullback here of 10% or so so don't be alarmed when it comes.

IndyMac - Accept the GIFT

If you have not been purchasing IndyMac over the last 4 months, then you have been given yet another gift!!

You will look back 18 months from now and be very sorry you did not pick up this powerhouse
company that has NO SUB-PRIME Mortgages!!!

Did I Happen To Mention That IMB Has 54% of Its Stock Sold Short!!!
What will happen when all these short positions have to buy back in??

Can you say EXPLOSION!!!

Equities Continue to Deteriorate

Just a very quick note on the Equity Markets as a Whole.

Friday was yet another day of distribution by the smart money, so please do not get fooled by
the price action of some indexes.

It is important to note however that the bulk of the distribution by the big money has been
in a hedge type fashion. Which really helps to confirm our outlook for a sharp correction of 8%-15% followed by a hell of a rally.

I am not a bear by any means. I just recognize a market that is very tired and needs some
fear put into the players before it can continue the secular bull market!!

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