COTTON - STAY ON YOUR TOES

KEEP THE POWDER DRY AND BE PREPARED TO SELL COTTON SHORT.

THE CHART IS REALLY STARTING TO LOOK AS IF IT WANTS TO ROLL OVER AND UPON THIS ROLL THE SHORT POSITION WILL BE INITIATED.

IDEALLY I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE PRICE LEVEL 66.63 OBTAINED BEFORE ROLLING OVER AND WE ARE NOT THAT FAR AWAY FROM THIS PRICE NOW.

THE NEXT LEG DOWN IN COTTON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A DOOZEY AND WE WANT TO TRY AND GET ON BOARD FOR AT LEAST 2/3 OF THE MOVE, BUT CONFIRMATION AFTER THE ROLLING OVER IS A MUST.

SUGAR

SUGAR BROKE FROM THE TRIANGLE AND HAS PRODUCED A VERY NICE RALLY.

THE TARGET FOR THE MOVE BASED UPON THE MEASUREMENT OF THE TRIANGLE BRINGS THE PRICE TO 11.95.

BLOGELITES - CRACKED THE TOP TEN!!

WELL, THE BLOG CRACKED THE TOP 10 WITH A 9 RATING ON BLOGELITES.

THANKS FOR TAKING THE TIME TO VOTE THE BLOG AND PLEASE KEEP IT

UP AND VOTE ONCE PER DAY EACH TIME YOU VISIT THE BLOG.

LET'S SEE IF THE BLOG CAN CRACK THE TOP 5!

NOW THAT WOULD BE AWESOME.

DON'T FORGET ALSO THAT IF YOU KNOW OF ANYBODY THAT THIS BLOG COULD BE OF USE TO PLEASE REFER THEM.

THANKS AGAIN FOR HELPING ME CRACK THE TOP TEN AND LETS KEEP THE MOMENTUM ROLLING!!

Daily Equity Market Comment 12/20/2007

We have quite a few short term buy signals making their way across the models and I have attached a chart of the hourly chart with a bullish breakout.

There is some very heavy resistance in here with a tight pool from 1450-1472, so if we can break 1472 we might see some fireworks to the upside. That is about 12 points from where we are now.

This also is the third day since the end of the sell-off so if the market wants to turn lower it would be Friday that would be the most logical. However, there continue to be strong indications that the rally will continue.

I remain 35% allocated to equities in the trading account and 100% long in the Long Term account. As I have said before, the market still needs to show me more confirmation before I increase my exposure.

Also, take a look at the 20% in 7 days stocks, some of them are doing very well and there were some additions to this portfolio today.

So in a nutshell, the market remains in the buy weakness mode with a real potential to accelerate higher from here.

p.s. If you have not visited the day trading site then stop on by.

BLOGLINES

DON'T FORGET TO CLICK AND VOTE THE BLOGLINES ON THE RIGHT HAND SIDE OF THE BLOG! THANKS

NEW TRADES IN SHORT TERM AGGRESSIVE EQUITY ACCOUNT

New Positions - 12/19/2007

THREE NEW POSITIONS TAKEN ON TODAY IN THE

20% IN 7 DAYS PORTFOLIO

12/19/07

Daily Equity Market Comment 12/19/2007

Today saw once again a multiple of trend directions which at these price levels can be considered bullish.

The daily pattern of a mid ranged consolidation calls for higher prices and perhaps sharply so.

I still have yet to get the strong confirmation that I need to put the last low as an intermediate term low, but as a whole, the market remains on a fairly predictable course of higher prices to come.

I did a bit more buying today on the afternoon weakness and as of now I am 35% allocated in the trading account and 100% un-hedged and long in the long term equity account.

One positive I did like today was the amount of put buying that went on at the first sign of weakness. This is a start towards the majority of investors being nervous and a bullish indication.

Continue to use weakness to accumulate quality issues that have been beaten up, but for your trading account do not move over the 50% allocated level until we get stronger confirmation.

Long Ford January 7 1/2 Calls

We purchased the Ford January 7 1/2 calls today for .20

As you can see from the chart there is no real heavy duty resistance until the 7.72 area and some very strong resistance in the 8.20 to 8.40 area.

The volume tool that is on this chart is simply one of the best as far as determining at what price or prices there was heavy turnover in the stock and thus support or resistance.

I do anticipate Ford to rally at least to the 8.20 level by the end of January. A tall task I know, but one that the stock is capable of accomplishing.

BUY CALLS ON FORD

Here are some of the reasons that I will be buying Ford Call options, once the ultra short term correction has run its course.

Notice there are three fairly heavy positive divergences on the two stochastics and also on the MACD. The MACD divergence gets more weight than the stochastics.

On a closing basis the stock price is forming a diagonal triangle and trending down. Odds are for a quick sharp break to the upside with this pattern.

GM has some similar patterns, but Ford looks to be poised for a stronger rally on a percent return basis.

I will be purchasing the January 7.50 calls which are 20 cents ask, 15 cents bid.
Fair value is .1811, so we are not getting ripped off on the trade.

The reason I am going out of the money is that I am looking for a minimum rally to $8.20 which would bring the options value to .80/.85 or just over 400% on a R.O.I. basis.

I may put together a mix of the Jan $6 calls and the Jan 7.50 calls for a more conservative strategy, just in case my upward target is too optimistic.

New Trades - 12/18/07

Three new trades added to 20% in 7 Days Portfolio.

Daily Equity Market Comment 12/18/2007

We made a nominal new low today with some very trade able volatility.

We had a clear 5 waves up and it looks like we may have had the first leg down already, so this would call for some strength early followed by weakness and a retracement to the levels marked on the 1 minute chart below.

The bullish part of today was the impulse rally structure of the market and also its ability to recover from a pretty sizable and a little panic stricken decline. We even managed to keep a put/call ratio in place that remains bullish for stock prices.

As I mentioned yesterday, we will know very quickly if in fact the low put in place is the end of the correction as the market should move sharply higher from here.

I remain 25% invested with my intermediate term trading capital and I am 100% long on the long term positions after lifting the hedge position.

If we get more confirmation that this rally is the real deal I will be making call option purchases on select issues, with GM and Ford to the forefront. Of course after option expiration I anticipate getting into some AMD call as well.

We had a great day on the day trading with over 15 points captured. If you have the time stop on by and take a look. www.lowriskdaytrade.blogspot.com

Also, if you could take the time to click on the blog elites Icon in the upper right hand corner and Enter and Vote for the blog, I would sincerely appreciate it and if you could make this process a daily ritual that would be even better. I realize that time is a valuable commodity, but it should really only take about 10 seconds of your time as once you click on Trend Analysis LLC you will be brought right back to the blog.

As usual I welcome any and all input and if there is anything in particular you would like to see or have covered, just drop me a line and I will do my best to accommodate the request.

Have a great week trading and I look forward to all of your comments and suggestions!

Re-Visit Your Money Makers

From time to time and especially when I suspect a low of some significance may be in place, I like to look back to the stocks that made me a bunch of money on the long side.

Sometimes it is a good thing to just forget about a stock for a while after you take a big profit out of it and such is the case with USU.

Could be another 50% return easy if the "W" pattern goes to completion.

Help Me Move Up The Ranks

You will notice at the top right of the blog is the title "Help My Exposure" and a
Blog Elites Icon.

If each time you visit the blog it would be great if you clicked on that link.

The click on Enter and Vote and find my listing.

Click on my listing and it will give a vote for the blog and take you right
back to the blog for your viewing.

You are allowed only one vote per day, but if you could make an effort to vote each day or
however often you visit the blog I would sincerely appreciate it.

Thanks for Viewing and I hope to continue to educate guide and learn through all of this.

Option Expiration Time Again

In keeping with this week being option expiration, let us not forget the behavior of some stocks
just after the most recent months options go off the board.

Typically, the players will wait for the Dec's to go off the board before the stock mounts a trending move, in this case it should be a rally.

With this being the case I will more than likely be picking up January calls on AMD this Friday and when I do I will post the transaction.

Soybean Meal - Step One Completed Today

Soybean Meal broke the ascending triangle on the stochastics today that we spoke of over the weekend.

If this pattern is valid then we should see sharply lower prices almost immediately.

I believe this collapse in prices should carry across the entire grain complex, but only time will tell us.

As it is, if we start to see the meal begin to crack under the technical pressure then it will be time to put on a sizable short position.

Lean Hogs - Keep It On Your Radar

We continue to look for one more push lower under the 58.150 level to end the major bear market in hogs.

It appears that the market is in that process now and once we have the low taken out we will begin to look for some type of price stabilization in order to begin putting a long line into play.

Keep this on your radar as the volatility in the market could bring this scenario to life very quickly.

Copper - Looking For A Bottom

You will recall when we talked about the inside skinny on Copper and how the breaking of
the symmetrical triangle in either direction would lead to an extended move.

The break came to the downside and continues to decline.
The target for copper, based upon the symmetrical triangle comes in at 2.74 plus or minus a penny.

This move will also bring the decline into a five wave down pattern and should indicate some type of rally, possible a very large rally even if copper only makes a counter trend move.

So at this point we are looking for copper to get to or close to its target price and then see some stabilization in order to initiate a long position.

The jury is still out on the long term picture for the industrial metal, but many questions about the long term health of the market will be answered upon the reaction off the decline.

Daily Equity Comment - 12/17/2007

Everything seems to be coming together for the intermediate term low scenario.

The beauty about this scenario is that it will be either proven or dis proven in very quick order, so we will know exactly where the market stands.

At this point we could still get a bit more downside, but it should be nothing of consequence if this scenario holds true. The other item that will give us a heads up is whether or not the market begins a very sharp and steep rally from here as the current scenario would call for just this.

Until this market has proven to me that we are entering a sharp rally phase I will continue with my step by step allocation. Currently I have 25% allocated to available equity resources and I have covered all of my hedge positions, so you might say in a way that I think the low is in place.

The only strong reservation I have is that I really would have liked to see more pessimism come into the market on the correction, but hey, the market certainly never makes it easy and that is what I really love about it...... A Never Ending Education!!!

POTENTIAL INTERMEDIATE TERM LOW ALERT

The market looks like it has completed the intermediate term correction and I will begin
to initiate long positions here, albeit at a conservative pace.

We have hit the downside targets and while it occurred a couple of days early I have covered my long hedges.

The reason I am not jumping in with both feet is the simple fact that this correction did not bring forth a large amount of fear amongst investors and this could be the wild card for the current decline being a bit more than just an intermediate term correction. Time will tell and thus I will allocate my first 25% to long positions.

My apologies if this post jumps all over the place, but I have about 10 things going on at the same time right now.

Lets see what happens!