AGL - Keep This One In Your Sights

Now here is a very interesting stock that seems to be setting up for a very nice move higher.

AGL is a stock I have traded for years and one of the main reasons I have continued to trade the stock is that it responds very well to technical analysis. There are some stocks that just don't seem to move based on technicals and then there are the average ones and then there are stocks like AGL that for whatever reason respond well to technicals.

The chart below is the 15 min chart and was used simply to confirm what I could not see on the daily chart, and that is if the rally was in the form of a trending move and it is.

Notice that the three legs up are just about equal in price and time, which is always a good sign.

Scroll down to the daily chart now.

You will notice the daily chart has given us my favorite chart pattern, Three White Soldiers!

If you recall, this is a very reliable trend reversal pattern and when you add taking your position upon a decline to the middle of the second candles body it bats better than 85%!

Notice also, that the middle of the second candles body comes in at about 16 1/2 and a 50% correction of this most recent rally comes in at 16 3/8 so we have some pretty strong support in that area and this is exactly where I would be looking to go long.

The target from the triangle comes in at 23 12/2 which represents a better than 40% move and more than likely in a fairly short period of time.

THE MAJORITY HAS SPOKEN

Your voices have been heard and action is being taken.

I will be setting up a completely separate blog for the Day Trading

with a link on this current blog to navigate your way to the

signals if you wish.

I have to agree with the vast majority of you that the Day Trading

Posts do take up a large amount of space and thus deserve

their own blog.

I will be working on setting up the Day Trading Blog this weekend

and time permitting I should have it up and running by the

opening bell on Monday.

Now comes the next question for all of you.

DO YOU THINK THE TREND ANALYSIS LLC BLOG SHOULD

BE STOCKS AND BONDS ONLY AND SEGREGATE THE COMMODITY

TRADING FROM THE STOCKS?

Day Trade Update 11/30/07

CLOSE

No real opportunities the rest of the day as it was simply pre-weekend games on the floor.

For the day we netted 6 3/4 points.

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1:45 pm EST

Stopped out at 1482.65 for a 2 1/2 point profit.

We have locked in 6.75 S&P 500 points so far today.

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1:41 pm EST

Move stop to lock in 2 1/2 points at 1482.65

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12:51 pm EST

We are going to go long here at 1480.15 on the break of the upper channel line and the buy on the stochastics.

Keep a pretty tight stop of a buck and a half to two bucks.

If it is going to move, it should do so in short order, if not something is wrong and we get out.


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12:44 pm EST

If we can break the upper channel line on the 5 min chart and get some follow through along with the stochastics on a buy signal then I might entertain going long.

But as things stand now, we remain flat awaiting a clearer picture.


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12:39 pm EST

There really is no clear cut picture as to what is going on and I had thought the market would have worked its way lower by now.

So when in doubt GET OUT!!!

At the market 1479.25 for a loss of .75 points.

This puts us up 4.25 points on the day.

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12:24 pm EST

Going short at 1478.50 with a close 1 1/2 point buy stop.


*************************************************************************** 12:16 pm EST

Really looks to be having a hard time and I am sure we will get stopped out at breakeven.

The next move will be to go short upon the crossing on the 5 min chart.


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11:59 am EST

Move stop to break even 1479.50

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11:49 am EST

Long from 1479.50. Stop just under the days lows @ 1476 even



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11:43 am EST

We were stopped out of our short position with 5 points profit.

Looking to go long on a crossing of the stochastics basis the 5 min chart.

Odds continue to favor higher prices today as the gap was not filled in the first hour.


************************************************************************************

11:21 am EST

Made the 1477.25 target so tighten up the stop to 1478.25 to lock in 5 points profit.


**********************************************************************************
11:16 am EST

1477.25 is the downside target. I would expect a rally after we achieve that price level.

This market is very quiet today.



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10:39 am EST

Watch the 1483 Pivot Point for a short trade if broken.

Keep an eye on the top blue line also as the 5 min chart has made a very nice bull flag and that calls for higher prices. We also did not fill the gap in the first hour, so this tells us that odds favor today to be a trending day in the direction of the gap which was up.

There are opportunities on both sides here, we just have to wait for them to set up.



************************************************************************************
Get ready on a break either way in the triangle

**********************************************************************************
Getting very close to SHORTING TIME!!

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PIVOT POINTS & MAGIC NUMBERS FOR 11/30/2007

PIVOT POINTS FOR 11/30/07

PIVOT - 1467.30

RESISTANCE

1. 1471.77
2. 1476.23
3. 1479.49
4. 1482.75
5. 1490.47
6. 1498.20
7. 1505.92
8. 1513.65

SUPPORT

1. 1464.04
2. 1460.78
3. 1456.32
4. 1451.85
5. 1444.12
6. 1436.40
7. 1428.67
8. 1420.95

MAGIC NUMBERS

• ABOVE 1475.32 RALLY TO 1486.57
• BELOW 1460.32 BREAK TO 1449.07

Pre-Opening Comment 11/30/2007

We have a very strong overnight market today and this should lead to a strong opening. Currently at 8:10 am EST the S&P 500 Futures are trading 14.5 points higher and barring any barring any major surprises in Personal Income and Personal Expenditures, these higher Globex prices should hold.

There a few very interesting items to note about this open and all of them point to a short term top being put in place very early in the trading day.

First, notice the triangle that has formed on the 5 minute chart. The minimum target on this formation is roughly 1484.

Second, there is a strong second level Pivot Point at 1482.75.

Third, with the stronger open the Magic Numbers call for 1486.57.

Lastly, 100% of yesterdays range added to the close calls for 1485.17.

Starting to see a little pattern in there?

So now for the good stuff, what to do with all of that information.

For Day Traders I would look to fade the open right in the area of the above numbers.

For short term traders, or even those who just want to shave a little cream off the top, I would look to take some profits after this great run up we have had. Personally I am going to be selling the GM and Ford in the aggressive trading account and look to buy them back later at lower prices.

Intermediate term traders can look to use the potential forthcoming weakness as a buying opportunity.

Position option traders should look to pick up some fairly valued index put options.

Really anyway you slice it, there is opportunity here regardless of your trading style. One more note about the possible upcoming market correction. Don't let it spook you because it is bound to be fast, steep and hard.

MINIMUM TARGET ON THE 5 MINUTE CHART TRIANGLE IS 1484.25

NEW DAY TRADE POSTING PROCEDURE

I realize that those of you who subscribe to the blog are getting an incredible amount
of emails with each day trading post I send.

There are times that I may post 20 or more day trading comments and actions and while
many are utilizing the information from the blog in real time, I realize that some of you simply
want the intermediate and long term analysis.

Therefore, in order to cut down on the number of emails you will receive with each day trading post, I am going to make one day trading post per day and I will add and edit this one post as the activity dictates. This way, all of the day trade posts will fall under one entry and alleviate
the overflow of emails.

If you are following the day trading emails, nothing has changed, other than the fact that all
of the action will be placed under one heading and one entry. It will simply be added to as the day progresses.

I hope this helps.

As usual, I welcome any and all comments on the blog, good or bad.

Cocoa - Close To Showing It's Hand

The next move in Cocoa will be let out of the bag shortly with a break on either end of the triangle.

It is high probability trades like this that you keep your powder dry for, so keep this on your radar.

The commercial traders are giving the impression that it will break down, or make an upward break failure, but let the market tell us what it wants to do.

More Confirmation

While we look for some short term weakness here, it is very reassuring that one more piece of the bullish picture has been put into place with the turning up of the sentiment gauge.

Dec. Oats Short Position

Move stop very close on the Dec. Oats Short position.

We have better than 60% on the trade and it had an outside day with a down close,
which typically is a precursor to higher prices.

I moved my stop to 270 even.

NEW SCALPER TRADE EXECUTED TODAY

Short Mar. Coffee from the close today with a close stop.

Looking for a quick 3-5 day decline.

Check sidebar for details under Scalper

Day Trading Analysis - 11/29/07

Even on days like today, there is something to learn about the markets.

The greatest never ending education you could ask for.

The triangle today was a thing of beauty and saved today from being a losing day.

Pivot Point Study - 11/29/07

Very limited pivot action as the market was extremely range bound today.

The green dotted line represents the first hours range.

Daily Equity Market Comment - 11/29/07

Today was pretty much along the lines of what was expected, but even having a guideline to follow and the market going pretty much with the guide it still remained a very challenging day to day trade.

The action today was indicative of a market that is a bit confused here and typically this means that a pull back of some sort is just around the corner.

With the action today and the probability model both saying the same thing (Lower Short Term Prices Upon Us) It would be prudent for short term position traders to take their long positions here and await the pull back before getting back on the long side. Aggressive short term traders can look to exit their longs and put on a short position as it looks like we should get 30 to 40 S&P 500 points to the downside here.

Once this correction has run its course then I look for the real fireworks to start on the upside as a late year buying panic hits the street.

So, continue to buy on weakness and look for this weakness to be upon us very shortly, like tomorrow at 9:30 am. EST

Day Trading Update # 8

We are not there yet, but getting close to a shorting opportunity, so keep your powder dry and get your orders ready.

Watch the 5 minute chart and the one minute chart for a breakdown.

Day Trade Update # 7

TIGHTER UP THE BUY STOP NOW THAT THE TRIANGLE TARGET HAS BEEN REACHED.

I AM MOVING MY STOP TO 1464 TO LOCK IN 4 POINTS.

THE PICTURE TELLS A STORY

A PICTURE MAY BE WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS

BUT IN TRADING A PICTURE IS WORTH THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS!

The Next Move

Keep an eye on the Triangle for the next major move.

Remember, a failure either way is a stronger signal then the break either way.

We know the market is about to make an extended move in either direction by how quiet it has become, even for the lunchtime hour.

Day Trade Update # 6

I don't like the way the market is acting here.

Tighten the stop to 1470 even to lock in 1.5 points and get us even on the day.

Day Trade Update # 5

Move stop to break even at 1471.50

Day Trade Update # 4

Go short in here at 1471.50 with a 2 1/2 point stop loss.

Day Trade Update #3

Here is a very recognizable pattern on the stochastics, but on that needs some TLC before using.

The stochastics must cross 80 before we can go short. This is the safe way to trade it.

Day Trade Update #2

Stopped out of short with a 2 point loss.

Market looks poised to come back up and challenge the opening range.

Day Trade Update #1

Going short here as the market has moved up to the top of the opening range.

New Scalper Trade

Sell December Coffee Short on a close below 127 even, with a stop at the

high of 11/28/07.

Day Trading Study 11/28/07

Pivot Points and Opening Range Study - 11/28/07

Commodity Account Update 11/28/07

I realize that it has been quite sometime since I have posted on the condition of the commodity account and it certainly is not related to the performance as it has been doing very well, aside from the Euro and selected Grains that is.

Recently, as in today, we were stopped out of the short cotton trade with an exceptional profit.
I had moved the stop very close to the market so as to lock in the handsome profits. I plan on waiting out a potential counter trend rally in cotton and then entering the short side once again as the worst seems not to be over for cotton.

We were also stopped out of our short sugar trade today as well. To be honest I was simply waiting for that to happen as the market was getting very quiet with very small range days. I kept the buy stop very close and stayed short just in case the quiet activity was a precursor to a collapse in prices. However, the opposite held true and we were stopped out on the open with a 35% profit.

The grain complex is simply teetering on the edge of collapse and this is the only reason I remain committed to the short positions in Corn, Beans, Meal, Oil and Oats. Typically I do not carry so many lines in the same complex but there are times I simply get bitten by the Super Aggressive bug! We are licking our wounds a bit on the Beans, but other than that the grains have not been hitting us too hard. The Oats trade has panned out well and I really tightened up the stop today to lock in about half the profits. It is far from too late to get in on shorting the Grains, especially the Soybeans as they are just on the edge of a major move lower and with the beans once they start going they just go and go and go. This is one of the reasons I love trading Soybeans as they offer some real volatility to trade.

I have been watching the Hogs for quite a while now and they simply continued to decline day after day so obviously there was no real long trading opportunity there. Now however there seems to be some type of stabilization in the Meats and upon another thrust to new lows to shake out the last remaining hardcore long positions I do see some opportunity on the long side of the market. This is going to be a day by day analysis but the Hogs look to be the next big mover so keep then on your radar and really watch them if they make one more smash to new contract lows.

While there are other opportunities in the commodities markets I think we have enough on our plates right now.

Daily Equity Market Comment 11-28-07

The intermediate term is starting to come together nicely with almost all models on green for not only higher prices, but also strong confirmation of the most recent low being of some significance. This could very possible lead the way towards a run to the highs and perhaps more. Of course it is always a day by day study of the markets but there are some very strong implications that a very very strong wave of buying may be upon us.

The probability model is calling for some type of consolidation in here which should be great for day trading. The model calls for a back and forth day with the bulls winning out in the end.

Bitten By The Bug

I got bit by the flu bug today and was unable to accomplish anything, let alone
trade the markets.

Feeling better now I am going to attempt to update the blog.

If however I seem to be drifting from the subject you can chalk it up to Mr. Influenza.

I hope that some of you got a piece of the incredibility strong rally today.

Daily Equity Market Comment - 11/27/07

Today was quite the wild ride as I saw glimpses of buying pressure today that really showed eagerness to purchase which is a nice change of pace. Yesterdays Outside Day with a lower close proved to be what it usually is and that is very bullish. It is hard to believe that we had a 215 point rally today and it was an inside day on the S&P 500. It shows the level of volatility we have been experiencing lately.

I do have a bit of concern about the eagerness to purchase calls today, but then again, we were up over 200 points so as long as this call buying trend does not become a regular occurrence then this rally should stay healthy.

The probability model is giving a strong indication of further upside tomorrow with a possible blow out day to the upside. The model is also giving us strong directive to fade a strong gap tomorrow whether it be up or down.

Day Trading today we captured 16 1/2 points and I do hope some of you were able to get a slice of that. Tomorrow should offer some excellent potential as well.

The chart below is one of my favorites and once it turns up, which should be soon, it will confirm the intermediate term buy signal.

One strange thing today is that as strong as the market was, about 75% of our stocks in the aggressive trading account were down. Now I am not concerned about this as the nature of these types of stocks is volatility through and through. It is one of the reasons that this type of equity trading might not be right for everyone, but it is also why the returns since I began posting them in August have been so strong.

I also put a poll up on the blog that asks if you think I should post the day trading items in a separate blog as I know not all of you day trade and I can see how it would be a pain to wade through 20 some posts a day to find the intermediate term analysis. So if you can take some of your time and participate in the polling I would greatly appreciate it.

If you know of any family, friends or associates that might be interested in this blog please feel free to pass the word or send them a link.

Day Trading Lesson For 11/27/07

Daily Pivot and Opening Range Study - 11/27/07

Sometimes All You Need To Do Is Listen To A Stock

The Case of Revlon and It's Real Potential

Day Trading Update # 22

Exit Long position to end the day flat

Profit of 1.75 points on this last trade.

Good Day Today!! Much Better Then Yesterday

TOTAL S&P 500 POINTS CAPTURED TODAY +16.50

Day Trade Update # 21

Move stop to break even at 1426.50

Day Trade Update # 20

Long on a push through the highs at 1426.50

Day Trade Update # 18

I will be looking to get long on this pullback

Day Trade Update # 18

Stopped out at 1117.30 for a loss of 1.20

Day Trade Update # 17

Long from 1418.56 on a break of the Bull Flag

Keep stop close in case the breakout pattern fails

Day Trade Update # 16

Stopped out at 1416.25 for 2 1/2 points profit.

May have gotten stopped out early, but thats OK

Day Trade Update # 15

Lock in 2 1/2 points profit with your stop at 1416.25

Day Trade Update #14

Long from 1112.75, Stop is just under the Lows

Day Trade Update # 12

Lock in 5 points profit with your stop moved to 1420 even

Day Trade Update #11 - Lock In Profit

Move stop to 1422.50 to lock in 2 1/2 points.

Day Trade Update #10

Watch the wedge on the 0ne minute chart for an indication of where the market might go next.