Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Sugar - Still No Green Light

Sugar remains on the watch list for a potential buy. However it has its work cut out for it to even move into a slight buy signal. The sentiment is decidedly bearish and this will come into play once a turnaround in prices occurs. The more bearish sentiment there is in the market, the stronger and larger the ensuing rally will be.

Cocoa - A Safe Short

Cocoa is still in a very vunerable position and is a safe short at current levels.

The possability of a crash in cocoa prices remains a very strong possability.

Look For The Short End of the Yield Curve to Rally Stronger than the 10 or 30

The Inverted Yield curve that we lived with for over a year, reversed its course a while ago and now remains flat. Look for this spread to widen yet more as Short Term rates move lower much quicker than the 10 year or 30 year.

The Intermediate Term trend for Interest Rates across the board is Lower.

Demise of Crude - What is the Deal with Unleaded Gasoline???

Crude should continue to work itself lower over the intermediate and long term. On the Daily chart, it continues to work off the Triple Top and Bar the very short term rally, the price of crude seems to be destin for lower prices!

The anomaly of lower crude prices to higher gasoline prices continues, but I do not think for long. Once crude begins to decline once more then look for gasoline to really collapse in price.


Corn looks poised to finish its counter trend rally into the 408 area.
From there we should look for the grains to begin yet another leg down.


Equity - Intermediate Term Bearish - Long Term Ultra Bullish

I wanted to quickly put things into perspective here as I have been talking quite bearish over the last couple of weeks.

On the Intermediate Term there simply is no doubt that the equity markets are in trouble and a decline is definitely brewing. This is exactly why I have hedged my stock positions.

However, for Long Term Investors this decline will offer a chance to put to use any cash that might be laying around and buy good quality stocks.

I am Ultra Bullish on the Long Term and there are several reasons, but one of the major reasons is characterized in the chart below.

As you know, the most prudent thing we can do and especially in the equity markets, is to follow in the foot steps of the commercial money and do the complete opposite of the average Joe or small speculator.

The chart below shows the red line (Average Joe) at its most bearish in years. Small speculators are very nervous and this bodes very well for the long term vitality of the stock market.

Even more impressive is the Blue Line (Commercial Traders) or the smart money. The Smart Money is Currently more bullish than they were at the March 2003 Secular Low! As a matter of fact, they are the most bullish they have been in over 10 Years!! This in a market that has had quite a rally already.

So it is very plain to see that on the Intermediate Term, Caution is warranted. However on a Long Term Basis, Stocks remain Historically cheap and the Big Boys know it. This market Long Term has the potential to double over the next 18 months!! WOW!! People have been waiting for the time when our domestic markets would start to perform as well as some of the foreign markets and it looks like over the next 2-3 years, that time will be here!

Monday, May 14, 2007

Equity Markets

The equity markets continue to flash very negative indications of direction.

I am 100% hedged as the market looks like it could take a pretty nasty tumble.

I do remain Long Term Bullish however. It just seems like the hedge is the prudent course of action here. I even exchanged out of my equity mutual fund holdings!


A very nice move in Ford stock today, but it appears that intermediate term wise, the stock
has reached its peak ability to rally.

We have a very nice 18% in 2 1/2 months on the stock and it would be wise to decrease your allocation to the stock if not get 100% out of Ford.

New Posting Policy

It seems that daily posts are starting to get a little redundant.
Therefore I am only going to post as the market warrants.

I will continue to update the short term trading model each day as well
as the quick glance Trends.

Day to Day comments on the market however will be cut back to only
as needed. I do hope this does not pose a problem for anybody!

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