Thursday, May 3, 2007

Some Of The Stocks We Have Been Watching

Dean Foods Finally Broke!
Look for strong support at the first green line

DVSA is starting to look great, and the stop loss area is so close it is almost a risk less trade.

CORS is yet another one that is looking good. Broke out of its coil and should head higher.
Remember Corus Bancshares also made a multi year secular low recently, so it offers some real long term potential.

Equity Market Comment

Whatever you do, don't get sucked into this rally around this area.
The smart money continues to dump their equities to the weak investors and this is not bullish at all. Keep in mind that this is only on an intermediate term time frame.

Long Term, the Equity Markets remain very healthy. There is just a bit of investor complacency that needs to be weeded out.

Wednesday, May 2, 2007

Lumber is Starting to Shape Up Nicely

Keep a close eye on Lumber here as it begins to act very bullish.
It still needs to show more on the positive side, but much like cotton and sugar it would be prudent to keep tabs on them.

Markets Comment

Still waiting for Sugar to turn the corner to buy. Today was constructive, but we have seen this pattern now for weeks. Sugar needs more confirmation across the board before a long position can even be considered.

Aggressive Traders can get bullish on Cotton as intra-day it made some very positive signs.
Still to early for Trend Traders to Enter this Market

Hogs continue their decline as well. The hogs have reached a point where we could really see some acceleration to the downside!

Cocoa made its expected two day counter trend rally, but if this trend is to continue down, we should not see the market up on Thursday. Intermediate term cocoa remains bearish.
Gold has reached a short term point where a rally might be expected. This should only be a counter-trend rally however as the intermediate term trend is without question DOWN!!

Rates moved up just a hair today, but the intermediate term trend remains down for rates.

Crude Oil continues its decline and should do so for the foreseeable time.
It still has just a bit more to confirm before we can call this a major trend shift.

The pattern remains the same as each time we get a short term sell signal, the market manages to have a sizable rally.
I still have my hedge in place however as an intermediate term correction is imminent.

Tuesday, May 1, 2007

Equity and Stocks Comment

While WHI has struggled as of late, it appears like it wants to move higher. I continue to hold my position that a secular low has been put in place.

USEC- Is in an area now where we might expect some type of snap back rally. However I will keep the hedge in place as the intermediate term trend remains clearly down.

While there was a nice reversal today in the market, the rally on the whole was rather tepid.
I continue to look for an intermediate term correction.

DVSA - Reached and exceeded its downside target, but it was able to close above its support level, therefore a buy signal was issued. A stop at 7 1/8 is in order but this stop will be on a closing basis only.

Commodity Market Comment

SUGAR - Still looking for a bottom in here. Has some serious hurdles to clear before it will have the ability to work higher.

COTTON - Continues to try and put a bottom in.

COCOA - Intermediate Term trend remains down, but should be about ready for some type of counter trend rally.

CORN - Continues to chop around in here, with a break out of the consolidation zone to the downside expected.

Monday, April 30, 2007

Equities and Rates Comment

While USEC is an excellent long term holding. It currently has the potential to have quite a correction and thus a hedge for the stock was put in place.
Once the correction has run its course the hedge will be lifted and more stock accumulated.

Keep a close eye on DVSA. It is starting to get close to the target.

The increase in volume today helped to clinch the intermediate term trend shift to down.Also the fact that this was the largest decline in 33 days, another key number.

Intermediate term trend for Interest Rates remains Down. Short Term direction also changed course to down. Take a Look at the Chart!!

Sunday, April 29, 2007

The State of Revlon

Still has something to prove on its pullback and that is what will dictate a taken position or not. Take a look at the chart!!

Current Intermediate Term State of the Equity Markets

I had posted this chart earlier and it seems to have more and more relevance as time goes on.
The equity market would have been in much better shape had it corrected a while back, but it has over-extended itself and brought in a bunch of intermediate term complacency.

We will have to see how it plays out, but I really am starting to lean into the camp of the March low having the potential to be violated upon the decline. It is for this reason that I am going to initiate a hedge in the equity portfolio.

Call me Short Term/Intermediate Term Bearish here. I do remain Bullish long term.

This is a chart of the Sentiment of the equity markets. Not only are we near the area that declines usually begin, but there is a relationship with the 39 day moving average. Take a look at the chart.

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