Friday, October 5, 2007

Additions To Aggressive Equity Portfolio

There are a few Short positions that have taken a bit of a beating, one in particular that has gotten pummeled.

With the Technicals giving the same advice it did when the initial short was put in place, I have added to the positions.

Below is a list of the averages.

MALL - This is the Final Average as the position is down 15.17%. Another 7% and I will be covering the entire short, however it really looks tired here and an addition to the short looked to be prudent.

CSIQ - First average here. The stock has negative divergences everywhere!

TBL - Rally looks like a counter trend move and lower prices should be right around the corner.

I have to have large amounts of evidence in order to average down in such volume, as this is typically not the case, however all of these stocks look like they are on the verge of lower prices.

MALL - Add To Short


The 1/3 position of put options taken on at 1557 basis the S&P 500 has been stopped out, with a minimal loss.

A break back below 1559 basis the Cash S&P 500 will trigger another 1/3 position to be established in the OEX Puts.

Ultra Short Term Sell - BUY PUTS

We are going to buy puts in steps here, as it is quite aggressive in the face of such strength.

Now that the target has been achieved I am going to put on 1/3 of my position with a stop at 1561 on the S&P 500.

As the market begins to go with the first trade I will then add to the position as this occurs.

Remember, this is a very aggressive trade, but also one that could score big today and perhaps be out for the week-end.

Ultra Short Term Trade - Sell Signal Just Around The Corner

One more push to new highs for this move and it will be time to sell the rally short and/or purchase at the money OEX puts.

Look to 1557.50 - 1558.25 as a solid area to enter bearish positions.

Yearly Model Forecast

Over the past 3 months or so I have talked about the Yearly Model Forecast and the dates it calls for either highs or lows.

While the model cannot be used to predict price, it can predict time and also the possible characteristic of the move from date to date.

The dates for the model are as follows:

LOW - 3/14
HIGH - 6/13
LOW - 8/23
HIGH - 9/28

From this point the model shows a very sharp decline from 9/28 to 10/16, with the final low for the year coming in on 11/2.

From 11/2 until the end of the year, the trend should be up, with a very strong December.

So to go over all the dates again -

3/14 Low
6/13 High
8/23 Low
9/28 High
11/2 Low
12/30 High

We shall see how it plays out, but so far this year the results have been quite good.

I will post a chart with the dates on it on Friday.

Thursday, October 4, 2007

Bio-Tech Index - Rough Patch Ahead

The Bio-Tech index looks to be in some trouble here.

How severe the break will be is as of yet unknown, but the fact remains that it will be rectified
lower and more than likely sharply.

Commodity Watch List 10-4-2007

Copper and Hogs are entering the Watch List status and should be monitored for buy signals.

Hogs even if they are to have a counter trend rally offer about 9 cents potential which is quite a move.

Copper offer the potential of a mini collapse as prices are on their third try to break through their highs and should it fail this time you will have quite a few commodity funds running for the exits.

As of now I have no positions in place, but they need to be monitored closely.

Equity Market Comment - 10/4/07

While the market has yet to break, the put/call ratios over the last 4 days are starting to show some serious short term bullishness.

I continue to maintain my hedge in equities and expect a correction off the August 16th low.

While I do anticipate this move to be only a correction, once the decline begins I will get a better pulse on the intermediate term health of the market.

SMCI - Add To Short Position

SMCI is forming a pattern that should resolve itself to the downside and typically it should happen quickly.

Currently SMCI is short in the Aggressive Equity Trading Account and I added to the position near the close today.

Wednesday, October 3, 2007

TNH - Waiting To Add To Positions

Although TNH still needs to decline 2 more days before it confirms it is in a corrective mode, it always pays to try and be one step ahead.

Look to add to the long positions on a retracement of this first leg up.
The blue lines on the chart below should offer you some guidance.

The true upside potential of Terra Nitrogen is truly staggering and as I have stated before, if you thought the move from the low 20's to 140 was big, just wait for this next leg up to get started full force.

For those of you who do not feel comfortable buying into a limited partnership, which is what TNH is, there is the stock of the parent company TRA Terra Industries that is always an option.

Although TNH has offered better returns on its capital appreciation and the rich dividend, some people just feel more comfortable owning the actual equity. Long Term options are also an option with TRA as well.

Either way you slice it, both TNH and TRA should offer some stellar returns in the not so distant future.





Below is about as clear cut a stock to be sold short or put options purchased.


The beauty of this stock is not all the technical sells it has given, but the fact that it also gives us a very limited risk exposure with the triple top and unorthodox inverted head and shoulders pattern.

Place the protective stop just above the triple top highs.

TQNT - Add To Short Position

Adding to the short position in TQNT as the charts is without question calling for lower prices and the indicators are saying this is near the start of the decline.

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Soybeans Have Broken!

The beans broke today with a vengeance and slid right through any short term support there might have been.

The grain markets as a whole have the potential to become a blood bath to the downside, so keep those short positions in place!

Great Currency Trade Opportunity - SHORT EURO

There is some good potential for a short sale on the Euro here.

A good trade could very easily turn into a superb trade if in fact this is a secular turn in the trend of the U.S. Dollar which very well could be the case.


Here is a new Short Position that was added to the Aggressive Equity Portfolio today.

Take note of the huge volume in the stock as it moved higher and then today shows a long Black candle, which usually leads to lower prices.

Commodity Trading Account Update

While the commodity trading account was struggling a bit through the last half of September, the positions in the portfolio have really begun to turn around.

Among the best positions to turn around are the cocoa and cotton that were quite a ways under water and have finally begun to go our way. As a matter of fact the cotton trade is even as of today. The cocoa trade is starting to take off as cocoa begins to move into a potential crash mode as was seen in the action today.

Below are the closed trades in the commodity account and while the performance is below my expectations, it still carries a pretty good annualized return and the tracking of the account is still in the early stages. These performance numbers should do even better as the current open positions in the account improve.

LONG LUMBER - STOPPED 9/12/07 LOSS (-17.3%)
SHORT GOLD - STOPPED 8/31/07 LOSS (-11%)
LONG HOGS - STOPPED 9/18/07 LOSS (-15%)

RETURN SINCE INCEPTION 08/01/07 - +11.52%

3 Winning Trades
3 Losing Trades
1 Break Even Trade

Aggressive Stock Trading Account Update

There has been quite a bit of action in the Aggressive Stock Trading Account over the last week.

While I have been trying to drain down the number of positions in the account as I really do not like to carry more than 10 stocks at a time, it has been a struggle to reduce as the opportunities just keep on flowing.

Below I have listed the current results of the portfolio.
It has been doing very well, hopefully I can keep these results consistent.

Remember that these are very aggressive trades and thus the high returns.
Because these are high aggressive trades only risk capital should be utilized.


LONG ALIF - Stopped Out 8/28/07 Loss (3.7%)
LONG IRS - Closed 08/28/07 Gain +8.55%
LONG DNR - Closed 09/17/07 Gain +7.05%
LONG SNTA - Closed 09/17/07 Gain +26%
LONG KBH - Stopped Out 09/20/07 Loss (5.2%)
SHORT CROX - Stopped Out 09/24/07 Loss (4.1%)
LONG VLCM - Closed 09/25/07 Gain +6.43%
LONG INAP - Closed 09/25/07 EVEN
LONG KEI - Closed 09/25/07 Gain +4.1%
LONG BCTE - Closed 09/26/07 Gain + 26.4%
LONG TNXI - Closed 10/02/07 Loss (1.60%)
SHORT CMA - Closed 10/02/07 Gain +1.60%
SHORT DKS - Closed 10/02/07 Loss (.84%)
LONG PUDC - Closed 10/02/07 Gain +21.87%

RETURN SINCE INCEPTION 08/01/07 ... + 86.56%
8 Winners
5 Losers
1 Break Even

One item of importance here is the fact that the portfolio has achieved excellent results while only sporting a 57% win ratio.

This feature alone shows clearly that if you are selective, cut your losses short and let your profits run your investment returns will soar.

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