Saturday, August 11, 2007
This calls for an early rally on Monday which should complete that up leg.
Look for strong resistance at 1467, 1472 and 1475. 1472-1475 being the most logical.
From there you can see that the clear direction is down.
August 24th remains the most logical day for the low.
Friday, August 10, 2007
I continue to stress the fact that this corrective phase in the market is not over and there is still quite a bit of potential downside left.
The above chart helps to support just this as these sentiment indicators need to get much lower before a low of substance can be called.
It simply remains to risky to trade anything for a rally so we will just stand aside for now.
The main hedge we have had in place remains in tact as this only looks like a potential for a short term bounce.
Thursday, August 9, 2007
Shorting all strength continues to be the best action.
Copper remains in a secular bull market and needs to complete its current pullback before
the purchase can be exercised.
A Short term low at 1449.
Rally to 1476.50
Final Collapse to 1387 for the end of the correction.
The time model continues to suggest the date of August 23 to August 24 for the ultimate low.
Remember that these models are for guidance only and nothing is ever etched in stone.
However, it does appear to me that the final low is NOT in place yet and while there has been some short term fear created, we have yet to see the wide spread despair that comes with major lows.
I don't see this being a straight shot down to our final bottom, but you have to be prepared for anything.
The hedge remains in place and targets for the final low are as follows:
All targets are basis the S&P 500 and the highlighted target holds the most weight.
With much of the talk of a panic today, it could very possible be a set up for a rally tomorrow or Monday. This rally should be sold if it presents itself.
Wednesday, August 8, 2007
20 + S&P points is not bad for an hours work!!
With this information in mind, take 1/2 of your position at current levels and should the stock ultimately fulfill its 14 1/4 target then the other half of the position can be put in place.
The upside potential of this stock is huge and I do not mean a double or a triple, but more!
Take a look at a 2 year chart of TNH (which is also nearing our buy range) and you will get an idea of exactly how powerful an advance is possible with USU. Now everything is never etched in stone and we must always buy and sell stocks according to what the market dictates, but the risk to reward on USU is great! Not bad Long Term Fundamental prospects either.
Tuesday, August 7, 2007
before I take the hedge off and begin a stage of buying.
Be prepared for some real volatility over the next couple of weeks and don't expect everything
to happen quickly.
August 24th remains the target day for the low.
I remain fully committed on the long side with a very close stop to protect from any breakdown.
If I am correct on my analysis then lumber should have quite a sharp move to the upside and as long as there is not hard breakdown from these levels then all systems remain on go.
Monday, August 6, 2007
The next intermediate term move up has the potential to be a huge move.
Keep this one on your radar.
There are quite a few commodities that are starting to line up nicely for moves one way or the other, so I am going to be very busy.
decline to stay healthy. The DAX needs to correct more than our domestic U.S. markets, but after that is complete then watch out.
You can participate in the German Market by finding a mutual fund or the easy approach is simply to trade the ETF, the symbol being EWG.
Sell Stop at $1.29
Keep in mind on this one that I very rarely will even consider a stock below $5 per share, but for
the purpose of this educational module I make the exception.
This will be a counter trend move and from there the final decline on this intermediate term correction should be over.
Please have in mind that the Math Model is very specific and although at times it will get the numbers wrong, it is very accurate on direction and structure.
I will be posting my buy list in anticipation of the final low that I see for August 24.
Sunday, August 5, 2007
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I hope all of you had a great weekend and lets get ready for what should prove to be a very
interesting week in the markets!
The level we need to look at is a close below 1387 on the S&P 500 and not the actual 200 day moving average.