Wednesday, May 28, 2008

TNH - The Whole Picture

TRA chart for reference to this post.


We talked yesterday about some of the commodity based investments that have done very very well as oil has continued to move high, but many of these same stocks are starting to show fatigue and may be on the verge of a substantial correction.


Below is TNH, which is actually a limited partnership.

TNH is the one I spoke about getting out pre-maturely at $95 only to watch it continue to climb sharply higher. No complaints here though as we purchased it at $17 and sold it at $95.


The chart speaks for itself as it begins to show some serious long term cracks in its trading pattern. The parent company is called Terra Industries (TRA) and although the patterns on the chart is a bit different than TNH, it moves in lockstep with TNH.


There will be a strong play on the downside with TRA once we see TNH break the lower line of its wedge. Options are also offered on TRA, so when the time comes we will look into some put options to capitalize on what could be a mighty collapse.


The other reason I bring this stock up is that it tends to lead Crude Oil prices by about 1-2 weeks, so we may be able to get a heads up on the future course of crude oil prices simply by watching TNH.




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