Thursday, May 29, 2008

Equity Market Comment - 5/29/2008

The hourly chart shows a counter trend rally back to the 50% level and then a turn away from those levels. The first leg down shows a clear 5 waves down so we know that there is more downside to come our way. This is acting differently then the other pull backs we have seen during the rally from the lows so be careful if you have been riding this higher.

While I had expected the low of the first leg down to come in on Thursday, it now appears that Thursday was actually a potential top of the first counter trend rally. Therefore we should expect sharply lower prices from here.

This move higher was a bit more that I had envisioned and I have been stopped out of my put positions twice with very small losses, however, yet another opportunity to profit from falling prices seems to be on the door step.

Intermediate to Long term traders should continue to hold a very defensive portfolio just in case this next leg down is the second wave lower of the bear market. Also take notice of the high level of bullishness amongst small investors and you have a fairly reliable recipe for sharply lower prices.

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