Saturday, November 10, 2007

Weekend Equity Market Comment - 11/10/2007

The probability model missed on the outcome of Friday, but I will give it the benefit of the doubt considering how incredibly accurate it has been over the last 60 days. I don't want to jinx the model, but it seems like the tune up I gave it really brought consistency to its abilities.

The model is giving very strong readings to this decline being just about over. As a matter of fact it calls for a low to be put into place Monday in the early morning at the 1444-1447 area on the Cash S&P 500 so watch that level very carefully. If you want to get micro about it, the model calls for a flat to higher open followed by one more push lower, with the low coming in from 10:00 to 11:00 and then clear sailing up with a close from 12-22 points higher. Now I realize that this is just a tad micro, but I do use the general hourly readings it gives me. I don't treat them as gospel, but it will give you a nice general framework from which you can base some of your day trading decisions.

If in fact the model is on target, then this low would classify as an intermediate term turning point and we should look for higher prices from there and as I stated on Thursday, the model did shift to buy weakness.

With this in mind, I will be picking up some short term long positions on the early weakness Monday and they will be placed into the Aggressive Trading Account on the blog. Whenever I post new additions or removals from the portfolio I always use that days closing price and not the price of the actual fill. This way in most instances it makes the account work even harder to perform well and I always like to have some of the deck stacked against me, it helps to confirm whether or not a specific strategy is worth a hoot or not.

I would like to mention that the probability model did return the possibility of an intermediate term low on Tuesday, but it was a rather remote possibility in relation to the typical readings the model gives. It never hurts to be too prepared though and so I mention it.

Have a great weekend and lets all have a profitable trading week ahead!

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