Days like this do tell us something. They tell us that the stock is about to make a sizeable move in one direction or the other.
Remain flat until it tips its hand on which way it wants to move and then climb on board.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gander Mountain Update
No real progress in GMTN as we had a very narrow ranged day.
Days like this do tell us something. They tell us that the stock is about to make a sizeable move in one direction or the other.
Remain flat until it tips its hand on which way it wants to move and then climb on board.
Days like this do tell us something. They tell us that the stock is about to make a sizeable move in one direction or the other.
Remain flat until it tips its hand on which way it wants to move and then climb on board.
Equity Market Comment - 3/4/2008
Sentiment, both short term as the chart below demonstrates and long term remain on our bullish side with some wide spread disparity and some readings that have not been seen since the bear market termination in 2003
The 1 minute chart below shows the S&P 500 (Blue) and the CBOE Put/Call ratio for today.
Notice the heavy put buying from 2pm on and the market began to recover. This is an ongoing event just about in every instance and clearly demonstrates the very high level of bearishness amongst investors.
The 1 minute chart below shows the S&P 500 (Blue) and the CBOE Put/Call ratio for today.
Notice the heavy put buying from 2pm on and the market began to recover. This is an ongoing event just about in every instance and clearly demonstrates the very high level of bearishness amongst investors.
When does a down day become an up day?
When the market is in the process of a mini bloodbath and it manages to close well off those lows and actually show signs of buying outpacing selling for the day.
This was what happened today, and it is because of the very strong seasonal time frame we are in that it was even able to occur. While the action today was not what I had anticipated and certainly not what my models had suggested, it remains a fairly strong plus just the same.
The model for tomorrow is even more bullish then it was for today with all 9 components squarely in the bullish camp. This at the very least makes the suggestion that any downward pressure we might see on stock prices will be very limited and in all probability with the action today, Wednesday should be a fairly strong day for equities.
I remain attached to my theory of higher stock prices and not a new bear market. It seems as of late that I am just about the only bull left out here and that my comrades is a very very good thing.
I continue to hold a fairly conservative allocation to stocks as there are still quite a few benchmarks the market must clear before I can justify a more aggressive stance, take comfort in the very high probability that any downward pressure on stocks from here should be very limited and the path of least resistance is very close to turning up.
Continue to look for good solid bargains in the market, and there are quite a few right now, but remain conservative in your allocation with perhaps a 50% to 60% total allocation to equities.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Gander Mountain Knocks On The Door Again
It appears the decision to lock in profits on the Gander Mountain trade was a good one as the stock has move all the way back down to the breakout point and currently is resting on the long term trend line.
This offers some potential for yet another long trade.
If GMTN can bounce from here and close back above the trendline, then we will have potential for a very bullish move higher.
This trade also offers some very limited risk as we are right at the trendline and a bounce off of this line will be the trigger to purchase the stock, with a very close stop loss just under the trendline. Risk should be no more than 5%, but it is important that you have the stop loss in place once you are long the stock as a failure of this pattern may lead to a re-test of the $4 area.
This offers some potential for yet another long trade.
If GMTN can bounce from here and close back above the trendline, then we will have potential for a very bullish move higher.
This trade also offers some very limited risk as we are right at the trendline and a bounce off of this line will be the trigger to purchase the stock, with a very close stop loss just under the trendline. Risk should be no more than 5%, but it is important that you have the stop loss in place once you are long the stock as a failure of this pattern may lead to a re-test of the $4 area.
Equity Market Comment - 3/3/2008
The market action today followed fairly well with what the probability model predicted, with a lower open to be followed by a late day rally and a neutral close.
It is also quite bullish that after a more than 300 point down day the previous session, the market was able to level off and not have downside follow through on the close.
The seasonal model calls for Tuesday to be a very good day on the upside and it is this exact type of day that the market desperately needs in order to keep the intermediate term trend from turning negative.
The Models Components are as follows:
6 Bullish
2 Neutral
0 Bearish
Today was also in the time window for the change in trend date, so there is a very high probability that a low was put into place today.
The great thing about all of this is that if a strong Tuesday should come to pass, it will take the probability model into very bullish territory and we could finally see a breakout of this trading range we have been in for quite some time now.
No question that there are some real short term concerns here, but sentiment remains very bearish and the market remains in a very favorable time for higher stock prices.
Currently the long term allocation remains at 60% invested and this reflects some of the concerns I have for this market. However, as we continue to get favorable signs for higher stock prices, this allocation level will move up.
It is also quite bullish that after a more than 300 point down day the previous session, the market was able to level off and not have downside follow through on the close.
The seasonal model calls for Tuesday to be a very good day on the upside and it is this exact type of day that the market desperately needs in order to keep the intermediate term trend from turning negative.
The Models Components are as follows:
6 Bullish
2 Neutral
0 Bearish
Today was also in the time window for the change in trend date, so there is a very high probability that a low was put into place today.
The great thing about all of this is that if a strong Tuesday should come to pass, it will take the probability model into very bullish territory and we could finally see a breakout of this trading range we have been in for quite some time now.
No question that there are some real short term concerns here, but sentiment remains very bearish and the market remains in a very favorable time for higher stock prices.
Currently the long term allocation remains at 60% invested and this reflects some of the concerns I have for this market. However, as we continue to get favorable signs for higher stock prices, this allocation level will move up.
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Weekend Equity Comment-3/1/08
We have a change in trend date coming up March 3-4th and previous to last Thursday and Fridays market action I had anticipated it being a high coming in, but due to the small bloodbath we saw over the last 2 days of the week it more than likely will be a low.
In all probability the low may have occured on Friday as it looks like a downside washout and some strong panic selling. This selling however did not come from the institutional side, it came from the retail side which continues to enforce the premise that the small investor remains very very nervous as they wait for what they believe will be another collapse in stock prices. We can see this activity very clearly in the Put/Call ratios which are showing very prolific signs of wide spread disparity in market players as each rally attempt seems to be met by a wave of selling.
This type of action is quite common when the market is in the process of putting in a bottom of impotance and it is exactly what we are currently seeing in the market.
The market remains in a very strong period over the next 6 weeks, with this coming week being the strongest of the six. This is partially the reason I see Friday as a capitulation day as retail investors flooded out the exit gates in droves.
Therefore.
Considering all the evidence, I see no reason at all to change my outlook and I continue to look for good stocks to purchase and also having lightened up on our call options over last week, it will again be time to buy more on the call side.
Ideally what I would like to see, is a continuation of the decline on Friday early in the trading day on Monday. It will be at that point that I will begin an aggressive campaign of purchasing SPY, DIA and OEX call options for a position trade that should last 2-3 weeks.
In all probability the low may have occured on Friday as it looks like a downside washout and some strong panic selling. This selling however did not come from the institutional side, it came from the retail side which continues to enforce the premise that the small investor remains very very nervous as they wait for what they believe will be another collapse in stock prices. We can see this activity very clearly in the Put/Call ratios which are showing very prolific signs of wide spread disparity in market players as each rally attempt seems to be met by a wave of selling.
This type of action is quite common when the market is in the process of putting in a bottom of impotance and it is exactly what we are currently seeing in the market.
The market remains in a very strong period over the next 6 weeks, with this coming week being the strongest of the six. This is partially the reason I see Friday as a capitulation day as retail investors flooded out the exit gates in droves.
Therefore.
Considering all the evidence, I see no reason at all to change my outlook and I continue to look for good stocks to purchase and also having lightened up on our call options over last week, it will again be time to buy more on the call side.
Ideally what I would like to see, is a continuation of the decline on Friday early in the trading day on Monday. It will be at that point that I will begin an aggressive campaign of purchasing SPY, DIA and OEX call options for a position trade that should last 2-3 weeks.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Equity Market Comment 2/28/08
It is do or die time for the market on a short term basis and there are some very mixed signals.
The seasonal model dictates Friday as a strongly trending up day and the Wedge that we broke out of is being tested both on a closing and intra day basis.
If this test can hold the line then we could see some sharply higher prices in a very short period of time.
On the other hand we have a potential change in trend coming into play on March 3-4th and a stochastics turn down today.
So we have a little of both bullish and bearish implications and this should work its way out on Friday and tell us where equities will be headed over the next 3-6 trading days. As a cautionary measure, we took about 1/3 of the aggressive long and call option positions off the table today just in case we have seen the high for this leg up.
The seasonal model dictates Friday as a strongly trending up day and the Wedge that we broke out of is being tested both on a closing and intra day basis.
If this test can hold the line then we could see some sharply higher prices in a very short period of time.
On the other hand we have a potential change in trend coming into play on March 3-4th and a stochastics turn down today.
So we have a little of both bullish and bearish implications and this should work its way out on Friday and tell us where equities will be headed over the next 3-6 trading days. As a cautionary measure, we took about 1/3 of the aggressive long and call option positions off the table today just in case we have seen the high for this leg up.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Equity Market Comment - 2/27/08
The seasonal model just about pegged the action today with the exception of a very small down day instead of a very small up day.
Everything remains just about in line with the current scenario I outlined yesterday and this would look for higher prices over the next two days and a short term high put into place Monday.
The final target for this high using the S&P 500 cash index is 1412 or about 35 more S&P points from here. This would imply that the next two and one half days should be quite strong and the seasonal model confirms just this scenario.
Short term traders should use the next 2 days to scale back their long positions including call options. There are some very handsome profits out there and it would be prudent to begin taking those profits.
Intermediate term traders can look as the potential pullback as an opportunity to add positions to their equity holdings as the next move after the correction has run its course should be a good one.
Everything remains just about in line with the current scenario I outlined yesterday and this would look for higher prices over the next two days and a short term high put into place Monday.
The final target for this high using the S&P 500 cash index is 1412 or about 35 more S&P points from here. This would imply that the next two and one half days should be quite strong and the seasonal model confirms just this scenario.
Short term traders should use the next 2 days to scale back their long positions including call options. There are some very handsome profits out there and it would be prudent to begin taking those profits.
Intermediate term traders can look as the potential pullback as an opportunity to add positions to their equity holdings as the next move after the correction has run its course should be a good one.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Change In Trend Date Correction
In todays equity comment, I stated March 4th as the change in trend date.
The correction is that the Change In Trend date will be Late March 3rd or early March 4th.
This time frame could also be off by one day, so we will call it Late of March 3rd to Early March 5th.
The correction is that the Change In Trend date will be Late March 3rd or early March 4th.
This time frame could also be off by one day, so we will call it Late of March 3rd to Early March 5th.
Gander Mountain - Protect Profit
Gander Mountain has made an impressive move from the breakout level, just a little over 25%.
We are currently nearing the $7 minimum target level and thus we want to put a stop in place to protect the profits.
A sell stop of $6.50 on a closing basis should do the trick. This will lock in a 20% return should the stock turn lower, but it is also far enough away to keep the position in place and capitalize on still higher prices.
I do anticipate higher prices for GMTN as $7 is merely the minimum target, however, it never hurts to lock in a substantial profit when one is put on the table.
We are currently nearing the $7 minimum target level and thus we want to put a stop in place to protect the profits.
A sell stop of $6.50 on a closing basis should do the trick. This will lock in a 20% return should the stock turn lower, but it is also far enough away to keep the position in place and capitalize on still higher prices.
I do anticipate higher prices for GMTN as $7 is merely the minimum target, however, it never hurts to lock in a substantial profit when one is put on the table.
Equity Market Comment 2/26/08
Today market made the breakout day on the closing basis for the wedge pattern.
If we can get some follow through on this break and send confirmation then we have some excellent upside targets.
More than likely the market will continue its uptrend as we saw some fairly decent put buying action while the market continued higher. We also are coming into the strongest day of the week with Wednesday and also the 2nd best day on the end of the month pattern.
If the S&P 500 can manage to take out todays highs at 1387.34 then the odds of an up day shoot through the roof to 81% and an average .73% return which translates into about 10.5 S&P 500 points.
While we do remain in a bullish phase both on a technical and seasonal level we do have a change in trend date late in the day on March 4th or early trading of March 5th. I anticipate this will be nothing more than a normal pullback, but dependant upon how far the market continues to rally here it could scare a few people, which is just what we need. I will address this scenario as we draw closer to the date.
Wedge on the High, Low and Close chart had its breakout yesterday.
The follow through of today made the closing chart breakout as well.
The Phase Model currently shows some modest bullishness with the following ratings:
If we can get some follow through on this break and send confirmation then we have some excellent upside targets.
More than likely the market will continue its uptrend as we saw some fairly decent put buying action while the market continued higher. We also are coming into the strongest day of the week with Wednesday and also the 2nd best day on the end of the month pattern.
If the S&P 500 can manage to take out todays highs at 1387.34 then the odds of an up day shoot through the roof to 81% and an average .73% return which translates into about 10.5 S&P 500 points.
While we do remain in a bullish phase both on a technical and seasonal level we do have a change in trend date late in the day on March 4th or early trading of March 5th. I anticipate this will be nothing more than a normal pullback, but dependant upon how far the market continues to rally here it could scare a few people, which is just what we need. I will address this scenario as we draw closer to the date.
Wedge on the High, Low and Close chart had its breakout yesterday.The follow through of today made the closing chart breakout as well.
The Phase Model currently shows some modest bullishness with the following ratings:3 Bullish
2 Bearish
1 Neutral
Friday, February 22, 2008
HELP MY AUDIENCE GROW
PLEASE TAKE 15 SECONDS OUT OF YOUR SCHEDULE AND VOTE FOR THIS BLOG AT BlogElites. THE LINK IS IN THE TOP RIGHT CORNER OF THE BLOG AND VOTING WILL BRING YOU RIGHT BACK HERE. THANKS MUCH!
Preliminary Week-End Equity Market Comment - 2/22/2008
If you will recall a post about 2 weeks ago that discussed a pattern of Investor Sentiment and the results of this pattern occuring.
For those who do not remember, the pattern has been 100% over a 10 year time frame and has returned 24% from the lows to the end of the move.
A move of this size will bring us right back to the highs on the S&P 500 at 1570-1580.
Here is more confirmation of this pattern, as the prediction model is looking for sharply higher prices over the next 2 1/2 months.
The blue bars represent the current market action and the black bars are the benchmark model.
As you can see, the black bars make quite an impressive run over the next 60 days and to top it all off, the model is calling for a 24% return from low to high just like the sentiment pattern did.
For those who do not remember, the pattern has been 100% over a 10 year time frame and has returned 24% from the lows to the end of the move.
A move of this size will bring us right back to the highs on the S&P 500 at 1570-1580.
Here is more confirmation of this pattern, as the prediction model is looking for sharply higher prices over the next 2 1/2 months.
The blue bars represent the current market action and the black bars are the benchmark model.
As you can see, the black bars make quite an impressive run over the next 60 days and to top it all off, the model is calling for a 24% return from low to high just like the sentiment pattern did.
I wanted to post some preliminary comments on the equity action today as this weekend may be a very busy one and I simply may not have the time to publish a full week-end comment.
The market today staged a very impressive late day rally and once again saved itself from breaking the wedge based on closing prices. This continues to be a strong positive, especially with most market pundits expecting this pattern to break to the downside.
I think the main reason you saw such a sharp reversal was their short covering as the market moved a but higher. Many of the shorts put their positions in place early in anticipation of some sharp downside follow through on a break of the wedge and when this did not materialize and the market began to stabilize and push a bit higher there was a mini buying panic as more and more shorts got covered.
The good news about getting today out of the way is that we are now out of the seasonal weakness pattern and breaking into a strong seasonal upside pattern. This pattern officially goes into effect on Tuesday and runs all the way through March 16 or perhaps even stringing out all the way to March 20th. The nature of the potential rally will dictate its life cycle so we will address that once we have enough data under our belts.
For Monday we have a Neutral to Very Slightly Bearish Tendancies for the day.
The Models Outcome is as Follows:
Bullish - 3 components
Bearish - 3 components
Neutral - 2 components
This translates into a coin toss either way, but should not be a big increase or decrease when the close finally occurs. Expect the volatility to continue though as there are simply to many positions out there that need to be squared.
As I said, I am going to try and post more of a week-end comment later in the week-end, but in the event I do not manage to squeeze it in, then this will have to do.
I hope you all had a very profitable week in the markets as there were some great opportunities presented to us and the good news is that looking forward, new opportunities should flourish.
The market today staged a very impressive late day rally and once again saved itself from breaking the wedge based on closing prices. This continues to be a strong positive, especially with most market pundits expecting this pattern to break to the downside.
I think the main reason you saw such a sharp reversal was their short covering as the market moved a but higher. Many of the shorts put their positions in place early in anticipation of some sharp downside follow through on a break of the wedge and when this did not materialize and the market began to stabilize and push a bit higher there was a mini buying panic as more and more shorts got covered.
The good news about getting today out of the way is that we are now out of the seasonal weakness pattern and breaking into a strong seasonal upside pattern. This pattern officially goes into effect on Tuesday and runs all the way through March 16 or perhaps even stringing out all the way to March 20th. The nature of the potential rally will dictate its life cycle so we will address that once we have enough data under our belts.
For Monday we have a Neutral to Very Slightly Bearish Tendancies for the day.
The Models Outcome is as Follows:
Bullish - 3 components
Bearish - 3 components
Neutral - 2 components
This translates into a coin toss either way, but should not be a big increase or decrease when the close finally occurs. Expect the volatility to continue though as there are simply to many positions out there that need to be squared.
As I said, I am going to try and post more of a week-end comment later in the week-end, but in the event I do not manage to squeeze it in, then this will have to do.I hope you all had a very profitable week in the markets as there were some great opportunities presented to us and the good news is that looking forward, new opportunities should flourish.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Gander Mountain Breaks Out
Gander Mountain broke above heavy resistance today on decent volume.
Not superb volume, but decent.
There are a couple of options here as to how to play this.
1. Buy half your position in this area and wait to but the second half if and when the stock comes back to the trendline and tests.
2. Conservative investors can wait until it pulls back to the trendline and has a successful test before putting a line together,
Not superb volume, but decent.
There are a couple of options here as to how to play this.
1. Buy half your position in this area and wait to but the second half if and when the stock comes back to the trendline and tests.
2. Conservative investors can wait until it pulls back to the trendline and has a successful test before putting a line together,
Equity Market Comment - 2/21/2008
A down day was what I was looking for today, but not quite as sharp as we were delivered.
The market managed to stay within the wedge on the S&P 500 and the 30 minute Nasdaq as well. The two charts show both of these occurences.
The seasonal model calls for a moderate up day Friday as the model scored
6 Neutral
4 Bullish
0 Bearish
Friday also is the early start to a strong period in the market.
We will know very shortly if equities can stay in their positive rally mode as we should begin to move up starting tomorrow.
The market managed to stay within the wedge on the S&P 500 and the 30 minute Nasdaq as well. The two charts show both of these occurences.
The seasonal model calls for a moderate up day Friday as the model scored
6 Neutral
4 Bullish
0 Bearish
Friday also is the early start to a strong period in the market.
We will know very shortly if equities can stay in their positive rally mode as we should begin to move up starting tomorrow.Wednesday, February 20, 2008
EQUITY MARKET COMMENT FOR 2/20/2008
Today was right along the lines of expectation with the exception of the extreme range we saw.
The market is marching right along with what our work dictates and the next stop on the upside is a break of the upper boundry on the wedge as shown in the chart below.
Tomorrow brings to a close the negative seasonal influence and next week should usher in a very strong upward seasonal draft that could very well carry prices sharply higher. This period of strength also has life until mid March where we should see some weakness for the last half of the month.
The Probibility Model for Thursday shows us 6 Neutral and 4 Bearish, so we anticipate a down day, but only modestly so, with the lows of today remaining untouched.
The market is marching right along with what our work dictates and the next stop on the upside is a break of the upper boundry on the wedge as shown in the chart below.
Tomorrow brings to a close the negative seasonal influence and next week should usher in a very strong upward seasonal draft that could very well carry prices sharply higher. This period of strength also has life until mid March where we should see some weakness for the last half of the month.
The Probibility Model for Thursday shows us 6 Neutral and 4 Bearish, so we anticipate a down day, but only modestly so, with the lows of today remaining untouched.
Things are starting to shape up on the intermediate term picture, however, after we complete this negative seasonality tomorrow, we need to really see the market make a move upward that will take investors my surprise and also begin to bring some of the sidelines money back into the game.
Here is the breakdown of the Seasonal Probability Model.
Day of the Year - UP 47% Neutral
Day of the Month - UP 47% Neutral
Return for Day of the Month - (-0.08)% - Neutral
Day of the Week - UP 55% Neutral
Day of the Week Returns - +0.04% Neutral
Post Option Expiration - UP 42% and worst of the week - Bearish
Post Option Expiration Return - (-0.16)% and 2nd worst of the week - Bearish
Post Presidents Day - UP 42% - Bearish
Post Presidents Day Return - (-0.02)% - Neutral
Inside Pattern - UP 43% - Bearish
Overall - 6 Neutral and 4 Bearish
Comment - Look for a modest pullback Thursday
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Equity Market Comment - 2/19/08
The negative seasonal pattern played its part to a tee today as a fairly decent rally could not hold with the downward seasonal pressure.
Today was marked as the worst day of the 3 day seasonal weakness pattern and could be the lowest point of the weakness we see.
The market tried to break out of its wedge today, but the pressure lower would not let it hold.
The second day in this weakness pattern calls for a modest increase in prices, so we could see a break on the upside out of the wedge tomorrow. You can plainly see on the chart that we are getting very close to a break one way or the other and Wednesday should rectify prices in either direction, with the probibility leaning towards a break higher.
The Third and last day in the seasonal weakness pattern calls for only modestly lower prices so should we get a break out of the wedge in an upward thrust tomorrow then we will look for a small pullback of that move for Thursday.
After this pattern works its way through, the market should enter a period of unusual strength all the way until March 19th. Of course we need one thing to happen at a time and the first is an upside breakout of the wedge.
Today was marked as the worst day of the 3 day seasonal weakness pattern and could be the lowest point of the weakness we see.
The market tried to break out of its wedge today, but the pressure lower would not let it hold.
The second day in this weakness pattern calls for a modest increase in prices, so we could see a break on the upside out of the wedge tomorrow. You can plainly see on the chart that we are getting very close to a break one way or the other and Wednesday should rectify prices in either direction, with the probibility leaning towards a break higher.
The Third and last day in the seasonal weakness pattern calls for only modestly lower prices so should we get a break out of the wedge in an upward thrust tomorrow then we will look for a small pullback of that move for Thursday.
After this pattern works its way through, the market should enter a period of unusual strength all the way until March 19th. Of course we need one thing to happen at a time and the first is an upside breakout of the wedge.
For those of you keeping score, here is how the seasonal patterns work out for tomorrow.
DAY OF THE MONTH - 52% CHANCE OF AN UP DAY (INSIGNIFICANT) - NEUTRAL
DAY OF THE MONTH RETURN - NEUTRAL
DAY OF THE WEEK - 59% CHANCE OF AN UP DAY - BULLISH
DAY OF THE WEEK RETURN - BEST OF ALL DAYS - BULLISH
POST OPTIONS EXPIRATION - 54% UP DAY AND BEST OF ALL DAYS - BULLISH
POST OPTION EXPIRATION RETURN - HIGHEST OF ALL DAYS - BULLISH
POST PRESIDENTS DAY - 40% CHANCE OF AN UP DAY - BEARISH
POST PRESIDENTS DAY RETURN - INSIGNIFICANT - NEUTRAL
TOTALS
4 BULLISH
3 NEUTRAL
1 BEARISH
OUTPUT - MILDLY POSITIVE DAY EXPECTED
Monday, February 18, 2008
Can They Ever Make Up Their Minds!
Yesterday we talked about the negative side of the current market and why 1320 on the S&P 500 is so important to the intermediate and long term viability of equities.
This still remains the case mind you and that level on the S&P 500 continues to remain an area of concern and bears a keen eye in order to keep all avenues open.
However, as you know, I remain one of the few that continue to believe we are NOT in a bear market and this decline we have seen in equity prices, while painful, is nothing more than a normal correction in an ongoing bull market.
Remember, all of these market pundits that are crying wolf now are the same ones who have been echoing caution over the last 2 years. These are the same market analysts that talked about how long it had been since the market saw a meaningful correction of 10% or more and how just this type of correction would be healthy for the long term viability of equity prices.
Well now they have gotten their 10% plus market correction that they had been looking for and all of a sudden it no longer is healthy for the market, but quite the contrary. Now it has become the starting of a bear market instead of a normal correction in a bull market.
Seriously, I don't know how they can do it. They look for something to happen for two years and remain in a limited equity position during the entire time and then the market finally does what they have been saying it would do and all of a sudden they change their minds on what it means.
You can see now why I do all of this analysis myself and I only use the mass of analysis from others as a contrarian indicator at best.
Anyway, I have attached a chart of the NASDAQ that shows quite a large wedge forming on the 30 minute chart. This wedge has some fairly major implications for prices if it breaks out to the upside. The minimum target is for a better than 12% rally to be ripped off and probably in fairly short order.
So while we continue to monitor that S&P level 1320 we also remain in a buy weakness mode and until anything tells us differently then this is the strategy we continue to use.
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Why 1320 on the S&P 500 is a Critical Level for the Stock Markets Health
We are coming into next week with the potential for lower prices into the close Thursday, there is a critical area on the S&P 500 that needs to be monitored.
While we believe the ultra short term low was put into place on Friday, it never hurts to be prepared for the unexpected, especially with the current market behavior.
The chart below shows exactly what I am talking about and should be printed out for reference.
That is how important it is.
While we believe the ultra short term low was put into place on Friday, it never hurts to be prepared for the unexpected, especially with the current market behavior.
The chart below shows exactly what I am talking about and should be printed out for reference.
That is how important it is.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Ford Makes The All Star Watch List Again
With all of the troubles the domestic automakers have had over the last 3 years, Ford has had the roughest go.
Currently in their 7th year of a turn around plan that was supposed to take 3 years. Of course to their defense, their plans have been changed about 50 times so how could we even expect anything to take hold.
However, given the number of problems they have had in that time, it seems as though they may just be turning the corner.
They should begin to feel the benefits of the hourly buy-outs this year and they have also managed to ween themselves off most of the incentive packages for new car buyers. Although this process of moving away from large cash back offers has eaten into sales volumes, it has more than made up for that with the help to the bottom line which is what they sorely need.
Providing we do not see any sabotage moves on managements end, then this trend should continue and this is exactly what wall street has been looking for.
The chart below has a very strong pattern being traced out and although we have yet to get a trigger to enter the stock, it still remains a very strong watch list stock.
Currently in their 7th year of a turn around plan that was supposed to take 3 years. Of course to their defense, their plans have been changed about 50 times so how could we even expect anything to take hold.
However, given the number of problems they have had in that time, it seems as though they may just be turning the corner.
They should begin to feel the benefits of the hourly buy-outs this year and they have also managed to ween themselves off most of the incentive packages for new car buyers. Although this process of moving away from large cash back offers has eaten into sales volumes, it has more than made up for that with the help to the bottom line which is what they sorely need.
Providing we do not see any sabotage moves on managements end, then this trend should continue and this is exactly what wall street has been looking for.
The chart below has a very strong pattern being traced out and although we have yet to get a trigger to enter the stock, it still remains a very strong watch list stock.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Weekend Market Comment For W/E 2/15/08
A fairly mellow option expiration Friday as it seemed most of the position squaring took place on Wednesday and Thursday.
It was a great day for trading however as we had about as textbook symmetrical day as you can get, lower early followed by higher later in the day.
The chart below makes some very interesting points about the intermediate term health of this market, so please take a look.
The Nasdaq remains the primary focus of the big boys and should prove to outpace most of the other broadly based indexes.
It also remains in an intermediate term position for higher prices, but probabilities tell us it might have to wait a couple of days before we continue higher.
Friday saw the market work lower to the lower corrective target and then begin moving higher.
It was a great day for trading however as we had about as textbook symmetrical day as you can get, lower early followed by higher later in the day.
The chart below makes some very interesting points about the intermediate term health of this market, so please take a look.
The Nasdaq remains the primary focus of the big boys and should prove to outpace most of the other broadly based indexes.It also remains in an intermediate term position for higher prices, but probabilities tell us it might have to wait a couple of days before we continue higher.
Friday saw the market work lower to the lower corrective target and then begin moving higher.This is a bullish development and also solidifies the low on Friday as a pivot point for either higher prices or lower prices. This level needs to hold fast if we are going to continue to work our way higher.
The next couple of days show a tendancy of being negative so we may simply flop around in here until we find our way out of the pattern induced negative slope. This should end on Thursday and from there we should see a sizeable rally begin.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Current Stock Coverage - 2/15/2008
MRK has done very well this week handily out pacing the market.
The stock remains in the buy zone and should prove to be one of the leaders on the
next leg higher in the general market.
AMD had a very average pull back today and on declining volume which is a bullish development. I expect the stock to get back on track with higher prices as early as Friday.
I talked yesterday about the Airline Index either proving or disproving a continuation of its intermediate term rally and today was a failure and caused us to exit the last half of our position.
The stock remains in the buy zone and should prove to be one of the leaders on the
next leg higher in the general market.
Gander Mountain has reached a critical point that should determine the short term
course of its stock price. A solid break of this downward trend line on expanding volume
will be a huge positive. A failure and turn away may very well bring about one more test of the stocks lows.
AMD had a very average pull back today and on declining volume which is a bullish development. I expect the stock to get back on track with higher prices as early as Friday.
I talked yesterday about the Airline Index either proving or disproving a continuation of its intermediate term rally and today was a failure and caused us to exit the last half of our position.No complaints however as it managed a very nice return for us and in a very short time frame.
We will see what this potential decline in XAL is made of as Long Term the index still has a good amount of pent up demand and much higher prices. We may very well re-visit again.
Equity Market Comment - 2/14/2008
Just about right on schedule was the ultra short term correction we had anticipated.
It is also possible although not likely that we took care of the entire corrective process in one day.
If this is to be the case then we should begin to see some higher prices tomorrow in order to complete the first leg up of a more complex structure.
The target for the final high of this complex leg is 1375 to 1379. From there I anticipate a larger correction than the one we just had or are finishing now.
Here are some of the seasonal tendancies for Friday, which is option expiration by the way.
February Seasonal for the 15th - Only a 50/50 proposition for an up day, so pretty much a non statistical event. However, tomorrow does hold the third best average returns for the month so if Friday is going to be a rally day it has some strong odds of being up strongly.
Still, this only ranks Neutral.
The Day Of The Week numbers are pretty bullish with Friday being the highest of all the days of rallying. 60% chance of a rally and also the highest average return of all other days.
These two combined rank Bullish
Pre-Expiration Statistics show Friday having the second lowest odds of a rally day, but still ranks 53% so this is rated Neutral. The Average Returns for Fridays in the week before expiration are the worst of the week with a negative 0.20%. This is rated Bearish.
The Holiday seasonality is the worst of the bunch, with Friday carrying the lowest chance of a rally day, only 31% and the worst average return of the entire pre and post holiday period with a negative 0.18%
This Is A Double Bear.
So, while I mentioned that the correction may have been taken care of in one day, the seasonality of the markets has other ideas and I always listen to the market.
The 30 min chart shows the S&P 500 making its way down to one of the retrace points, thus one reason I thought the short term selling pressure might be over.
Either way the element of risk is really only about 10 S&P 500 points from here.
Be leary of the market making an early strong rally back up to the 1361 area. If the market conforms to this set-up I would be an aggressive ultra short term short seller for a final leg down to 1339 +/- 3 points. This may be a bit short term focused, but it will be paramount to the condition of the market on the intermediate term front should this play out.
As it stands now, we view this as nothing more than a normal corrective process in an otherwise complex rally structure with the ultimate lows having already occured in the 1270 level of the S&P500.
One more note is the PUT/CALL ratio during trading today.
It showed some serious bearishness right out of the gate before the market even began to deteriorate. As I stated before, we need this to remain in the bearish sentiment levels as long as possible in order to keep the intermediate term rally in progress.
It is also possible although not likely that we took care of the entire corrective process in one day.
If this is to be the case then we should begin to see some higher prices tomorrow in order to complete the first leg up of a more complex structure.
The target for the final high of this complex leg is 1375 to 1379. From there I anticipate a larger correction than the one we just had or are finishing now.
Here are some of the seasonal tendancies for Friday, which is option expiration by the way.
February Seasonal for the 15th - Only a 50/50 proposition for an up day, so pretty much a non statistical event. However, tomorrow does hold the third best average returns for the month so if Friday is going to be a rally day it has some strong odds of being up strongly.
Still, this only ranks Neutral.
The Day Of The Week numbers are pretty bullish with Friday being the highest of all the days of rallying. 60% chance of a rally and also the highest average return of all other days.
These two combined rank Bullish
Pre-Expiration Statistics show Friday having the second lowest odds of a rally day, but still ranks 53% so this is rated Neutral. The Average Returns for Fridays in the week before expiration are the worst of the week with a negative 0.20%. This is rated Bearish.
The Holiday seasonality is the worst of the bunch, with Friday carrying the lowest chance of a rally day, only 31% and the worst average return of the entire pre and post holiday period with a negative 0.18%
This Is A Double Bear.
So, while I mentioned that the correction may have been taken care of in one day, the seasonality of the markets has other ideas and I always listen to the market.
The 30 min chart shows the S&P 500 making its way down to one of the retrace points, thus one reason I thought the short term selling pressure might be over.Either way the element of risk is really only about 10 S&P 500 points from here.
Be leary of the market making an early strong rally back up to the 1361 area. If the market conforms to this set-up I would be an aggressive ultra short term short seller for a final leg down to 1339 +/- 3 points. This may be a bit short term focused, but it will be paramount to the condition of the market on the intermediate term front should this play out.
As it stands now, we view this as nothing more than a normal corrective process in an otherwise complex rally structure with the ultimate lows having already occured in the 1270 level of the S&P500.
One more note is the PUT/CALL ratio during trading today.
It showed some serious bearishness right out of the gate before the market even began to deteriorate. As I stated before, we need this to remain in the bearish sentiment levels as long as possible in order to keep the intermediate term rally in progress.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
TRADE ALERT - LIVE CATTLE TRADE
WE WERE STOPPED OUT OF OUR LONG APRIL CATTLE TRADE TODAY AT BREAK EVEN.
CATTLE BROKE BACK INSIDE THE CONSOLIDATION ZONE AND CLOSED THERE.
CURRENTLY WE REMAIN
SHORT COTTON
SHORT SUGAR
LONG MAY LUMBER - CONSERVATIVE EXECUTION AT THE CLOSE TODAY
AMD - Looking Very Constructive
AMD confirmed its bottom today with the higher high and higher low. (Aggressive Confirmation)
Aggressive traders can purchase half their intended line right in here with a protective sell stop just below the most recent lows.
Conservative traders can wait for a pullback of sorts before entering on the long side.
You have the option of purchasing the stock outright, or purchasing call options.
If you choose the call option play, I would purchase the April $7 Calls, which currently are .75 by .77
Aggressive traders can purchase half their intended line right in here with a protective sell stop just below the most recent lows.
Conservative traders can wait for a pullback of sorts before entering on the long side.
You have the option of purchasing the stock outright, or purchasing call options.
If you choose the call option play, I would purchase the April $7 Calls, which currently are .75 by .77
XAL Update - Remaining Position
The Airline Index is offering up some clarification as to its near term direction.
We are sitting with only half our position as we took a very nice profit on the first half already.
We will know shortly what to do with the remaing position as the index will clue us in upon a break on either side of the triangle.
A break to the downside and we exit our remaining position.
A break to the upside and we continue to hold long.
We are sitting with only half our position as we took a very nice profit on the first half already.
We will know shortly what to do with the remaing position as the index will clue us in upon a break on either side of the triangle.
A break to the downside and we exit our remaining position.
A break to the upside and we continue to hold long.
Equity Market Comment - 2/13/2008
Three days in a row of higher highs, higher lows and higher closes.
With the way equities have behaved this year, this type of market action seems almost magical.
So far things have gone pretty much the way we had anticipated and the Nasdaq is living up to its potential also.
Things seem to come in threes with the markets, so it would not be unexpected to see some type of breather tomorrow before we continue to move higher.
The probability/seasonality model for tomorrow pans out like this:
1. Monthly seasonality shows a 65% chance of decline with the 2nd largest average decline for the month. This is a Negative.
2. Options Expiration Week brings tomorrow in at a 58% chance of closing higher and the second largest average gain for the week. This is Bullish.
3. Pre-Presidents Day shows a 54% chance of decline tomorrow.
Which is a Neutral Reading.
4. Day of the Week seasonality brings in a 55% chance of the market moving higher. Another Non Event which is Neutral.
5. Lastly the day of the year statistics show tomorrow being an up day 53% of the time.
A non event and a Neutral Reading.
Not much to hang your hat on there, with 3 neutral readings and 1 bullish 1 bearish.
However, the bearish side takes this contest simply because it has a 65% chance and the bullish has only a 58% chance.
The short term charts are showing some exhaustion here, but the capability to move 10-15 points higher before taking a rest.
With the way equities have behaved this year, this type of market action seems almost magical.
So far things have gone pretty much the way we had anticipated and the Nasdaq is living up to its potential also.
Things seem to come in threes with the markets, so it would not be unexpected to see some type of breather tomorrow before we continue to move higher.
The probability/seasonality model for tomorrow pans out like this:1. Monthly seasonality shows a 65% chance of decline with the 2nd largest average decline for the month. This is a Negative.
2. Options Expiration Week brings tomorrow in at a 58% chance of closing higher and the second largest average gain for the week. This is Bullish.
3. Pre-Presidents Day shows a 54% chance of decline tomorrow.
Which is a Neutral Reading.
4. Day of the Week seasonality brings in a 55% chance of the market moving higher. Another Non Event which is Neutral.
5. Lastly the day of the year statistics show tomorrow being an up day 53% of the time.
A non event and a Neutral Reading.
Not much to hang your hat on there, with 3 neutral readings and 1 bullish 1 bearish.
However, the bearish side takes this contest simply because it has a 65% chance and the bullish has only a 58% chance.
The short term charts are showing some exhaustion here, but the capability to move 10-15 points higher before taking a rest.Short term traders can look to take profits on strength tomorrow as a pull-back of sorts seems to be in the cards. It should be a very brief pull-back, perhaps only 1 day and then we should continue higher.
Keep an eye on this wedge off the lows on the 15 minute chart as it should give a strong indication of short term direction for those traders in this time frame.
Keep an eye on this wedge off the lows on the 15 minute chart as it should give a strong indication of short term direction for those traders in this time frame.****************************************************************************
IN A NUT SHELL, WE REMAIN IN A BULLISH MODE OF BUYING WEAKNESS, BUT WE EXPECT SOME TYPE OF MINOR RETREAT ON THE WAY. NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT, BUT SHORT TERM TRADERS SHOULD TAKE SOME PRETTY NICE PROFITS.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Gander Mountain - A Possible Trend Shift
Gander mountain seems to be trying to come back to life, as its bear market took it from $16 to $4 or a decline of 75%.
There are multiple signals that are calling for the stock to break from its major downtrend and make a run towards $10 at a minimum.
The stock has a very large test ahead of it breaking the downtrend line off the $16 high.
Also, it has formed a "W" bottom with volume confirmation and a close above 5 3/4 should break the stock out. Of course we will need the stock to have an expansion in volume when it breaks above 5 3/4.
But, I get ahead of myself.
First thing first, as the stock needs to close above the intermediate term trendline from the last long term high at $16.
Keep in mind that this is a high risk venture, but it also may deliver a very impressive double!
Don't forget to use your stop loss orders to limit your losses should the trade get triggered.
Place your stop wherever you feel at ease. Personally I try and risk no more than 18% on a high risk equity trade such as this.
There are multiple signals that are calling for the stock to break from its major downtrend and make a run towards $10 at a minimum.
The stock has a very large test ahead of it breaking the downtrend line off the $16 high.
Also, it has formed a "W" bottom with volume confirmation and a close above 5 3/4 should break the stock out. Of course we will need the stock to have an expansion in volume when it breaks above 5 3/4.
But, I get ahead of myself.
First thing first, as the stock needs to close above the intermediate term trendline from the last long term high at $16.
Keep in mind that this is a high risk venture, but it also may deliver a very impressive double!
Don't forget to use your stop loss orders to limit your losses should the trade get triggered.
Place your stop wherever you feel at ease. Personally I try and risk no more than 18% on a high risk equity trade such as this.
AMD - Has It Reached Its Point of Rally
AMD is starting to exibit the signs of a stock that wants to make another move up.
The hourly has a rolling bottom forming with confirming volume with an accumulation pattern on the daily charts.
The key to the puzzle now is two fold.
Number 1. No violation of the lows at 6.22 on an intra-day basis
Number 2. A Higher High and Higher Low with a higher close a bonus, but not a must.
The hourly has a rolling bottom forming with confirming volume with an accumulation pattern on the daily charts.
The key to the puzzle now is two fold.
Number 1. No violation of the lows at 6.22 on an intra-day basis
Number 2. A Higher High and Higher Low with a higher close a bonus, but not a must.
XAL - Sold Half of the Position
The airline index broke to the bearish side of the wedge on the half hour chart and triggered our sell on 1/2 of the position.
The downside target for the wedge is 35.25 which is about 6% lower from current prices.
We are holding the other half of our position and may even add to it once we achieve the downside target. This will have to be determined upon reaching those levels.
The remaining position has a stop loss at 34.25 which will still lock in 12% should the stop get triggered.
The model continues to call for higher prices and based upon the models abilities to predict price so far, we would be foolish to doubt this forecast.
The downside target for the wedge is 35.25 which is about 6% lower from current prices.
We are holding the other half of our position and may even add to it once we achieve the downside target. This will have to be determined upon reaching those levels.
The remaining position has a stop loss at 34.25 which will still lock in 12% should the stop get triggered.
The model continues to call for higher prices and based upon the models abilities to predict price so far, we would be foolish to doubt this forecast.
EQUITY MARKET COMMENT - 2/12/2008
Quite a wild ride today as volatility once again raised its head just to let everyone know it has not gone to sleep.
The market closed quite a bit off its highs, especially in the case of the NASDAQ.
From a pattern standpoint, this reversal and lower close in the NASDAQ actually has bullish
qualities and the scenario of a sharply higher move in the secondary stocks remains on course.
We have a few probability factors that are going to play into the market tomorrow and also played a roll in the action today as well.
Seeing as today is now done, I will only go over what tomorrow might bring us based on history.
First we have the pre-holiday trading factor (Presidents Day Monday).
Tomorrow brings the highest odds at 67% and the largest average gain 0.2% of the entire 10 day holiday period (5 days before and 5 days after). This Is Bullish.
Second we have the seasonality of pre-options expiration with Wednesday weighing in at 47% positive. A statistical non event, but a very slight negative just the same.
Third we have Wednesday's being positive 59% of the time second only to Friday's
This Is Bullish.
Fourth we have Wednesday's giving the highest returns, once again with the exception of Fridays.
This is Bullish.
Last we have the 13th of February being positive only 47% of the time. Another statistical non event, but a slight negative.
All in all it looks to me like tomorrow should be yet another rally day and with traders on their most recent kick of put buying at any sign of strength we could have a very good week.
The market closed quite a bit off its highs, especially in the case of the NASDAQ.
From a pattern standpoint, this reversal and lower close in the NASDAQ actually has bullish
qualities and the scenario of a sharply higher move in the secondary stocks remains on course.
We have a few probability factors that are going to play into the market tomorrow and also played a roll in the action today as well.
Seeing as today is now done, I will only go over what tomorrow might bring us based on history.
First we have the pre-holiday trading factor (Presidents Day Monday).
Tomorrow brings the highest odds at 67% and the largest average gain 0.2% of the entire 10 day holiday period (5 days before and 5 days after). This Is Bullish.
Second we have the seasonality of pre-options expiration with Wednesday weighing in at 47% positive. A statistical non event, but a very slight negative just the same.
Third we have Wednesday's being positive 59% of the time second only to Friday's
This Is Bullish.
Fourth we have Wednesday's giving the highest returns, once again with the exception of Fridays.
This is Bullish.
Last we have the 13th of February being positive only 47% of the time. Another statistical non event, but a slight negative.
All in all it looks to me like tomorrow should be yet another rally day and with traders on their most recent kick of put buying at any sign of strength we could have a very good week.
Monday, February 11, 2008
General Motors - The Future Looks Strong
You thought the move in General Motors was impressive from $17 to $43.
The next leg up has potential all the way to $63, so the return here should be excellent.
There are quite a few factors that will lead to this major move in the stock, but to sum it up,
GM is by far, much further along in their turn-around then are Ford and Chrysler.
GM is doing many of the right things in the right manner.
Now granted I say this under the concept of automaker mentality.
While GM seems to be making great strides as far as auto companies are concerned, if you were to compare their progress to a large universe of companies they would rate sub-par.
However, the market factors this way of thinking into the price so we don't have to concern ourselves to much with it.
The next leg up has potential all the way to $63, so the return here should be excellent.
There are quite a few factors that will lead to this major move in the stock, but to sum it up,
GM is by far, much further along in their turn-around then are Ford and Chrysler.
GM is doing many of the right things in the right manner.
Now granted I say this under the concept of automaker mentality.
While GM seems to be making great strides as far as auto companies are concerned, if you were to compare their progress to a large universe of companies they would rate sub-par.
However, the market factors this way of thinking into the price so we don't have to concern ourselves to much with it.
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XAL - Giving Us A Bull Market Return In Under A Month
We have had a very nice return off the Airline Index (XAL) so far.
Up 20.8% since purchase and climbing.
There are some signs however that the advance may be getting tired and so some precautions
should be put into place.
The next major short term move in the index should be based upon the outcome of the Triangle break.
This being the case, I am going to suggest a stop of half the position upon a break on the lower side of the pattern.
The reason I only say half the position is explained in the 2nd chart below.
The probability model has been simply incredible during this advance in the Airlines Index.
As you can see, the model calls for yet higher prices as we have not even hit the halfway mark
according to the model.
It is because of this model that I am only going to part with half of my position should the triangle break to the downside. I will let the remaining half ride as gthe model dictates higher prices.
If the triangle breaks to the upside all the better for us as we will remain in our full position and continue to ride the index higher.
Up 20.8% since purchase and climbing.
There are some signs however that the advance may be getting tired and so some precautions
should be put into place.
The next major short term move in the index should be based upon the outcome of the Triangle break.
This being the case, I am going to suggest a stop of half the position upon a break on the lower side of the pattern.
The reason I only say half the position is explained in the 2nd chart below.
The probability model has been simply incredible during this advance in the Airlines Index.
As you can see, the model calls for yet higher prices as we have not even hit the halfway mark
according to the model.
It is because of this model that I am only going to part with half of my position should the triangle break to the downside. I will let the remaining half ride as gthe model dictates higher prices.
If the triangle breaks to the upside all the better for us as we will remain in our full position and continue to ride the index higher.
COMMODITY TRADE UPDATE
THE CATTLE TRADE REMAINS PROFITABLE, BUT HAS STALLED JUST ABOVE THE CONSOLIDATION BREAK OUT POINT.
THIS COULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A RE-TEST OF THE BREAK OUT, BUT KEEP YOUR STOP JUST BELOW THE BREAK OUT POINT JUST IN CASE IT IS SOMETHING OTHER THEN A RE-TEST.
LUMBER IS STARTING TO COME TO LIFE AND IS REACHING A POINT TO WHERE WE CAN MOVE THE STOP UP TO BREAK EVEN.
THIS WAS THE AGGRESSIVE PLAY.
THE CONSERVATIVE PLAY IS STILL FLAT AWAITING A PULLBACK IN ORDER TO GO LONG.
SUGAR HAS GOTTEN ABOUT AS CLOSE AS IT COULD TO STOPPING US OUT, BUT WE ARE STILL HANGING ON BY THE SKIN OF OUR TEETH.
IF WE CAN MANAGE A LOWER HIGH, LOWER LOW AND LOWER CLOSE TOMORROW WE SHOULD BE SET UP FOR LOWER PRICES AGAIN.
COTTON CONTINUES TO BE OUR STAR OF ALL THE TRADES.
ALL IN ALL, THE TRADES ARE DOING QUITE WELL.
THIS COULD BE NOTHING MORE THAN A RE-TEST OF THE BREAK OUT, BUT KEEP YOUR STOP JUST BELOW THE BREAK OUT POINT JUST IN CASE IT IS SOMETHING OTHER THEN A RE-TEST.
LUMBER IS STARTING TO COME TO LIFE AND IS REACHING A POINT TO WHERE WE CAN MOVE THE STOP UP TO BREAK EVEN.THIS WAS THE AGGRESSIVE PLAY.
THE CONSERVATIVE PLAY IS STILL FLAT AWAITING A PULLBACK IN ORDER TO GO LONG.
SUGAR HAS GOTTEN ABOUT AS CLOSE AS IT COULD TO STOPPING US OUT, BUT WE ARE STILL HANGING ON BY THE SKIN OF OUR TEETH.IF WE CAN MANAGE A LOWER HIGH, LOWER LOW AND LOWER CLOSE TOMORROW WE SHOULD BE SET UP FOR LOWER PRICES AGAIN.
COTTON CONTINUES TO BE OUR STAR OF ALL THE TRADES.
WE CONTINUE TO MOVE THE STOP DOWN TO LOCK IN MORE PROFIT AS THE PRICE RETREATS.
WE ARE SHORT FROM 72.00 AND SITTING ON ABOUT A 125% R.O.I.
KEEP MOVING YOUR STOP DOWN AS THE TRADE GOES OUR WAY.
LET THE MARKET TAKE YOU OUT.
ALL IN ALL, THE TRADES ARE DOING QUITE WELL.THE EXCEPTION IS SUGAR, BUT IT DOES HAVE A CHANCE HERE IF IT ACTS ACCORDINGLY.
I HOPE SOME OF YOU ARE GETTING A SLICE OF THE COTTON TRADE.
MRK Update - Downside Targets Achieved
MRK has reached its target we had talked about back in the summer of 2007.
We are now at a level that warrants a solid purchase.
As this chart said back then about PFE being in a great position to move higher, this advice remains the same.
It may take a little longer than MRK's recovery, but it WILL happen.
We are now at a level that warrants a solid purchase.
As this chart said back then about PFE being in a great position to move higher, this advice remains the same.
It may take a little longer than MRK's recovery, but it WILL happen.
ANAD - Reduce Half Your Position
ANAD is up 18.5% since the Hit and Run Post.
The stock has hit its minimum target but looks poised for more upside.
We have sold half our position after the run up and will leave the other half on the table
in case the stock has more left in it.
Place s sell stop at $10 to protect the remaining position.
If we get stopped out we will still have an 11% gain on the second half.
The stock has hit its minimum target but looks poised for more upside.
We have sold half our position after the run up and will leave the other half on the table
in case the stock has more left in it.
Place s sell stop at $10 to protect the remaining position.
If we get stopped out we will still have an 11% gain on the second half.
EQUITY MARKET COMMENT - 2/11/2008
While not a barnburner of a day today, it went in the correct direction.
Once again the Inside Day with a Lower Close as we had on Friday predicted
an up day.
We took advantage of this on the weakness this morning and closing the position on the strength at the close.
Today we had an outside day with an up close and I don't have my almanac handy, but I am fairly sure this is a neutral pattern.
We would also expect some type of pull back Tuesday as the Monday/Tuesday reversal works its magic.
There was quite a large amount of put buying today, especially for a rally day and this is the way we would like it to stay. For the longer we can keep the majority waiting for the giant slam lower, the longer we can expect the market to move higher.
The NASDAQ has been the star as of late and the pattern today indicates higher prices to come.
We remain steadfast with our buy weakness mind set and although we are not out of the woods yet, there are certainly a large amount of indications that we have put a major intermediate term low into place.
Once again the Inside Day with a Lower Close as we had on Friday predicted
an up day.
We took advantage of this on the weakness this morning and closing the position on the strength at the close.
Today we had an outside day with an up close and I don't have my almanac handy, but I am fairly sure this is a neutral pattern.
We would also expect some type of pull back Tuesday as the Monday/Tuesday reversal works its magic.
There was quite a large amount of put buying today, especially for a rally day and this is the way we would like it to stay. For the longer we can keep the majority waiting for the giant slam lower, the longer we can expect the market to move higher.
The NASDAQ has been the star as of late and the pattern today indicates higher prices to come.
We remain steadfast with our buy weakness mind set and although we are not out of the woods yet, there are certainly a large amount of indications that we have put a major intermediate term low into place.
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