Wednesday, February 20, 2008


Today was right along the lines of expectation with the exception of the extreme range we saw.
The market is marching right along with what our work dictates and the next stop on the upside is a break of the upper boundry on the wedge as shown in the chart below.

Tomorrow brings to a close the negative seasonal influence and next week should usher in a very strong upward seasonal draft that could very well carry prices sharply higher. This period of strength also has life until mid March where we should see some weakness for the last half of the month.

The Probibility Model for Thursday shows us 6 Neutral and 4 Bearish, so we anticipate a down day, but only modestly so, with the lows of today remaining untouched.

Things are starting to shape up on the intermediate term picture, however, after we complete this negative seasonality tomorrow, we need to really see the market make a move upward that will take investors my surprise and also begin to bring some of the sidelines money back into the game.

Here is the breakdown of the Seasonal Probability Model.

Day of the Year - UP 47% Neutral

Day of the Month - UP 47% Neutral

Return for Day of the Month - (-0.08)% - Neutral

Day of the Week - UP 55% Neutral

Day of the Week Returns - +0.04% Neutral

Post Option Expiration - UP 42% and worst of the week - Bearish

Post Option Expiration Return - (-0.16)% and 2nd worst of the week - Bearish

Post Presidents Day - UP 42% - Bearish

Post Presidents Day Return - (-0.02)% - Neutral

Inside Pattern - UP 43% - Bearish

Overall - 6 Neutral and 4 Bearish

Comment - Look for a modest pullback Thursday

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