Tuesday, February 12, 2008


Quite a wild ride today as volatility once again raised its head just to let everyone know it has not gone to sleep.

The market closed quite a bit off its highs, especially in the case of the NASDAQ.

From a pattern standpoint, this reversal and lower close in the NASDAQ actually has bullish

qualities and the scenario of a sharply higher move in the secondary stocks remains on course.

We have a few probability factors that are going to play into the market tomorrow and also played a roll in the action today as well.

Seeing as today is now done, I will only go over what tomorrow might bring us based on history.

First we have the pre-holiday trading factor (Presidents Day Monday).

Tomorrow brings the highest odds at 67% and the largest average gain 0.2% of the entire 10 day holiday period (5 days before and 5 days after). This Is Bullish.

Second we have the seasonality of pre-options expiration with Wednesday weighing in at 47% positive. A statistical non event, but a very slight negative just the same.

Third we have Wednesday's being positive 59% of the time second only to Friday's
This Is Bullish.

Fourth we have Wednesday's giving the highest returns, once again with the exception of Fridays.
This is Bullish.

Last we have the 13th of February being positive only 47% of the time. Another statistical non event, but a slight negative.

All in all it looks to me like tomorrow should be yet another rally day and with traders on their most recent kick of put buying at any sign of strength we could have a very good week.

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