Trend Analysis LLC: BLOG ELITES

Friday, February 1, 2008

BLOG ELITES - Vote Today

Thanks to all of you who take the time to vote at BlogElites for my Trend Analysis Blog.

For those of you new to the Blog I ask you to click the link just on the right hand side of the blog called BlogElites.

From there it will take you to an entrance page.

Click Enter and Vote.

This will bring you to a list of blogs.

Simply click on Trend Analysis LLC and you will be taken right back to the blog and made your vote all in one.

If all of you could make an effort to vote each time you visit the blog I would sincerely appreciate your efforts. It is a small request that could really help the exposure of the blog and exposure and education is my goal for this entire project.

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Do's and Do Nots of Successful Investing

1) Buy and Hold Doesn't Always Work.
2) Cut your losers, and let your winners ride.
3) Don't fall in love with your stock; it won't fall in love with you.
4) Don't fight "the tape" (the trend).
5) Don't have more than 5% at risk in any one position.
6) Don't miss a good one by being too concerned with the exact price you pay.
7) Have patience and stick with your discipline.
8) Neglected sectors often turn out to offer good values.
9) Not selling a stock for a gain, simply because the taxes, is a bad idea.
10) Real estate cycles are not the same as stock market cycles.
11) There's usually only one reason corporate insiders buy stock.
12) Try to buy a stock when it has few friends.
13) When a stock hits a new high, it's not time to sell. Something is going right.
14) When all you're left with is hope, get out.
15) You can learn more from your bad moves than your good.

One of My Favorite Fundamental Tools

***Lets talk a little about the value measurement of earnings yield.While this measurement is being more widely followed, it remains a very key tool in obtaining the true value of a security.
***The earnings yield is nothing more that the opposite or reciprocal of the P/E ratio.It helps to put value in a more easily understandable light as it can be measured againstthe prevailing 10 year note yield.The premise is that if the earnings yield on the market or whatever stock you wish to measure is greater than the 10 year note yield then the security is undervalued.
***Now this is a gross simplification of the theory, but it gives you a reference point.Don't forget also that the 10 year T- note yield is a before tax measurement and the earnings yield is an after tax measurement. Therefore even if the earnings yield is less that the 10 year note yield, there is still a possibility of a security being undervalued.
***This gives you a very strong starting point as to where to go from here with the tool. Especially the after tax aspect of the earnings yield.Here is an example of the calculation for the earnings yield on a stock.Let us suppose a stock has a P/E ratio of 12. In order to get the earnings yield we just invert the 12/1 fraction to 1/12 and the yield comes to 8.33%. Compare this to the 4.5% 10 year note yield and you have quite the undervalued security. Maybe even more so than the 8.33% dictates as this is the after tax yield. To convert it to the before tax yield simply multiply the 8.33% by 1.33 for the 33% corporate tax bracket. The before tax yield becomes 11.08% which makes this security very undervalued.
***You can also use the earnings yield of an entire index such as the S&P 500 to get a feel for the current state of value in the market. Above this post you will see a visual of the current earnings yield model that shows the S&P 500 to be quite undervalued. This does not take into account the after tax effect which would move the target for the S&P 500 even higher.
***The earnings yield is a great tool and should be in every good investors toolbox.

Lawyers - Always in The Mix Somehow : >

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Friday, February 1, 2008

BLOG ELITES - Vote Today

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