Thursday, January 31, 2008

EQUITY MARKET COMMENT - 1/30/2008 & USU Update

USU made yet another attempt to break and hold back inside the wedge, but while it was able to break inside, it simply could not muster the strength to hold in place.

This is NOT a bullish indication of things to come, however, the hourly stochastics made a bullish stochastics cross so it may take working off or setting off a negative divergance before the stock can move lower.

We did not purchase the put options and we are going to wait until the hourly stochastics adjust themselves into a bearish condition.

Yet another wild and volatile day in the equity markets with stocks getting hit from the open and then putting together a rally that really gained steam in the afternoon.

The question at this point is whether or not the decline this morning was the culmination of the correction or not. The market reached beyond the 32% decline ratio, but did not quite get to the 50% retrace level.

This non event of the 50% retrace level suggests to me that the decline we saw end this morning was the first leg down of the ultra short term correction and the ensuing rally was counter trend, leaving the need for one more push down to satisfy the 50% decline area.

Here is a very interesting little tid-bit...... If the S&P 500 takes out the high of today which was 1385.62 then the odds of Friday being an up day increase dramatically. From 52% to 82%, so should we see some early morning strength and the high of today is surpassed then know that the odds of closing positive are very high.

We will know shortly if this scenario is correct or not. Either way, the market remains in the buy weakness mode.

The MACD has crossed on the daily chart from its deep oversold levels.
This is a good sign for the intermediate term.

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