Anything over 10 points is stellar as far as I am concerned.
The market rolled over today on the daily charts and made a swing 3 day pattern, which usually points to lower prices. Over the last 18 months however, this three day pattern has lost its immediate ability to bring on lower prices. The flow now seems to be a 1 day move higher then the downside move can begin in earnest.
The probability model is calling for a flat to slightly higher close tomorrow, which I am a bit puzzled about seeing as the Fed Decision is tomorrow and I would expect quite a large move one way or the other once their decision is made public. The probability model calls for two possible scenarios both with about the same result at the close.
It Calls for:
1. A sharp move lower early to mid trading day followed by a sharp reversal that brings the market flat to positive.
2. A choppy day that really goes no place in particular and results as an inside day (Lower High, Higher Low) with a positive close.
Seeing as there is the Fed announcement tomorrow I don't really know how much intra-day trading I am going to do. Most of the time I tend to sit these kind of days out and let it play out.
Unless there is a great set-up that simply cannot be passed on I don't think my activity is going to be very heavy.
Nothing has changed on the intermediate term basis.
I continue to sell strength and have kept my portfolio hedge in place.
So far the positive seasonality that was being hyped up everywhere has led to a complete opposite result. In keeping with that trend I would expect to see sharply lower prices Thursday and Friday. Of course the market will let us know what it wants to do, we just have to continue to listen. Remember......... THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT!!!
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