Monday, October 29, 2007

EQUITY MARKET COMMENT 10/29/07

Scalpers should look for some early lower prices with the break down from the channel, an attempt back into the channel, a rally failure to reach the top and yet another violation of the lower line.
While today presented very sparse scalping opportunities, the pattern near the end of the day may present us with some good downside movement at or near the open.

Equities being held in check by the invariably strong 62% retracement.
Another listless day, even with the positive bias as market participants wait for the
Federal Reserve decision on interest rates.
It would not surprise me to see continued quiet trade tomorrow and most of the day Wednesdays, all the models continue to advocate selling strength and this is exactly what I will continue to do.
Put/Call ratios continue to run very bullish, so it is fairly evident that the market should be unable to enter a period of sustainable rally.
One more push lower continues to be the intermediate term call and at this point with the wide spread bullishness, I don't know if the August Lows will be violated or not. It will have to be a day by day process, but sentiment is in dire need of an adjustment towards bearish before anything can happen on the upside.
I continue to look for a low to be put into place in the time window of 11/2 through 11/9.
Not very much time really for the amount of price action that needs to be covered.
REMAIN DEFENSIVE AND SELL RALLIES/ KEEP THE HEDGE IN PLACE JUST IN CASE THE HAMMER DECIDES TO FALL.



ONE MORE ITEM TO MENTION....... THE PROBABILITY MODEL DICTATES THAT IF TUESDAY IS AN OUTSIDE DAY (HIGHER HIGH,LOWER LOW) THEN WATCH OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEY COULD BE BLOODBATHS.

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