The 10 year note has been rallying very nicely, but it appears it may need to breathe here and perhaps rally a bit. Take a look at the chart, it is very interesting.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Equity and Credit Market Comment
Finally a swing high has been made in equities and this should lead to at least a short term correction. Of course I am looking for a more intermediate term move and I will be posting the S&P 500 support levels.
Lean Hogs and Their Potential to Follow Corn Lower
Hogs are looking very vulnerable to a sharp decline here.
The technical picture is very weak.
The Big Boys have been Major Sellers
The Small Traders are Excessively Bullish
They are Near Some Very Strong Resistance
These are just 4 reasons to look for hogs to decline and it could get ugly.
The technical picture is very weak.
The Big Boys have been Major Sellers
The Small Traders are Excessively Bullish
They are Near Some Very Strong Resistance
These are just 4 reasons to look for hogs to decline and it could get ugly.
Potential Confirmation
This will give us a good idea as to whether or not a correction has begun.
On this 5 min. chart, we should expect the market to reverse and move lower once again
right at these levels. We will have to wait and see what it tells us.
On this 5 min. chart, we should expect the market to reverse and move lower once again
right at these levels. We will have to wait and see what it tells us.
Speculative Issue - URST
From time to time I might come across a stock selling for under $3 that looks to me as if it wants to make a fast sharp high return move. Such is the case with URST.
Take a Look!!
Take a Look!!
Monday, April 23, 2007
Where is the Dollar Headed
The course of the U.S. Dollar may be shifting as I type this.
We need to start looking for some type of major bottom now that all the talk is about the Pound surpassing 2.
It is very possible that the brunt of the decline will come against the pound with the Euro not to far behind.
Now this all may be a bit pre-mature, but then again it might not (nothing like covering all the bases : )) Seriously, it is a time to keep the dollar on your radar for a potential secular shift in trend.
We need to start looking for some type of major bottom now that all the talk is about the Pound surpassing 2.
It is very possible that the brunt of the decline will come against the pound with the Euro not to far behind.
Now this all may be a bit pre-mature, but then again it might not (nothing like covering all the bases : )) Seriously, it is a time to keep the dollar on your radar for a potential secular shift in trend.
Current Stock Watch
USEC - Should begin to move sharply lower here as the counter-trend rally appears to be over. The stock continues to offer solid long term prospects, it has just gotten a bit ahead of itself price wise and needs to release a little bit.
If this double bottom GM has put into place is legitimate and strong then it should find some support quite close to the area it is trading in now. 30 1/2 should be strong support.
If this double bottom GM has put into place is legitimate and strong then it should find some support quite close to the area it is trading in now. 30 1/2 should be strong support.
Revlon - I continue to wait for the pullback to continue in order to judge the health of the stock. We need to see if this move is for real or if it is just another fake out.
GMTN - Starting to work its way through some very heavy resistance. A close above $14 on strong volume should cause a serious short covering rally. Take a look at the short interest in Gander Mountain, it is HUGE!! This could provide some excellent fuel for a strong rally as those shorts run for cover.
FORD - Looks poised to make a strong rally. Although with symmetrical triangles the price can break either way, the internals seem to point to an upside breakout. Sometimes a Straddle is a good thing in a situation like this, then it can break any old way it wishes!!
BDAY & DVSA - Both are getting close to their downside price targets.
IndyMac and Corus Bancshares both appear to have put their secular lows in place. However, with the extent of price damage they both endured, it might take a period of choppy action before a sustainable rally can ensue.
Daily Commodity Market Update
COCOA - Continues its decline. I am still expecting a 2-4 day bloodbath on the downside as the smart money has been heavy sellers and the Fund traders will only be able to support this market so long.
CORN - A move to new lows for this decline may end the first leg of the decline. However, at what price the first leg ends is any ones guess. We will just have to continue to monitor the market and see what it tells us. The Long Term on Corn remains down and still has a long way to go before any substantial bottom is put in place.
SUGAR - Broke to new lows yet again. I am still awaiting a strong confirmation that this decline has terminated. There is some serious upside potential in Sugar, but we need some good solid confirmation that a bottom is in place before it is even considered.
CRUDE OIL - Look for strong resistance at $66.20 basis the June contract. The Intermediate term trend remains negative.
CORN - A move to new lows for this decline may end the first leg of the decline. However, at what price the first leg ends is any ones guess. We will just have to continue to monitor the market and see what it tells us. The Long Term on Corn remains down and still has a long way to go before any substantial bottom is put in place.
SUGAR - Broke to new lows yet again. I am still awaiting a strong confirmation that this decline has terminated. There is some serious upside potential in Sugar, but we need some good solid confirmation that a bottom is in place before it is even considered.
CRUDE OIL - Look for strong resistance at $66.20 basis the June contract. The Intermediate term trend remains negative.
Daily Equity Market Comment
The negative close today across the board is a bearish sign short to intermediate term for equities. Although The only confirmation I have gotten so far that at least a short term correction has begun is from the Hourly work, the daily work continues to break down.
Notice that the short term model went to a zero today and this after such a strong rally over the last 7 trading sessions. Of course this market has been quite immune to the negative divergences so far, therefore a stronger confirmation than just the hourly work is needed.
Notice that the short term model went to a zero today and this after such a strong rally over the last 7 trading sessions. Of course this market has been quite immune to the negative divergences so far, therefore a stronger confirmation than just the hourly work is needed.
Metallurgical Coal Leader
Fording Coal will announce their first quarter earnings after the close today and if I had to side one way or the other based upon the weekly technical picture, I would say it will report stronger earnings than are being expected.
Aside from that, the stock looks to have a pretty strong long term technical picture. Take a Look.
Aside from that, the stock looks to have a pretty strong long term technical picture. Take a Look.
Sunday, April 22, 2007
Peeking Out from the Doghouse
Remember the days when Fannie Mae was the Wall Street darling and if you ran a mutual fund and did not have it somewhere in your portfolio you were borderline certifiable?
Well now that those days are gone and Fannie Mae is still in the dog house I think it is a great time to take a look!
Well now that those days are gone and Fannie Mae is still in the dog house I think it is a great time to take a look!
Saturday, April 21, 2007
A Potential Powder Keg!
Mylan Labs is on the verge of potentially offering a great return. Of course we will have to wait and see what the stock decides to do, but there is a real opportunity here!! Take a look at the chart.
The Condition of Gold
With the recent popularity of the precious metals and gold especially I thought it deserved its own post and not just with the other commodities.
Take a look at the chart below and you will see some pretty interesting stuff. While I certainly am not an eternal bear on Gold, I do think it needs one more leg down in order to stay a healthy viable market for years to come.
Of course I realize that my opinion is in the vast minority, but I always feel more comfortable in that position!
Take a look at the chart below and you will see some pretty interesting stuff. While I certainly am not an eternal bear on Gold, I do think it needs one more leg down in order to stay a healthy viable market for years to come.
Of course I realize that my opinion is in the vast minority, but I always feel more comfortable in that position!
Weekend Equity Market Comment
There is no question on the daily that the S&P 500 has shown some real strength. Just when it looks like it wants to move lower it makes another sharp thrust up. The sentiment number are just about neutral in here as the actually got more bearish as the market rallied. This is a long term bullish indication.
Take a look at the daily chart for the most recent analysis.
Take a look at the daily chart for the most recent analysis.
There are some very interesting things going on in the equity markets as it seems to have reached a point of decision. Take a look at the weekly chart below for an interesting analysis.
Friday, April 20, 2007
Weekend Commodity Market Analysis
It just does not look good for Corn and all the late party attendees on the Ethanol craze.
The smart money continues to warn against the impending implosion of crude oil prices. I have a feeling it is going to catch many off guard and this could cause it to get very ugly!!
It is not only the Commercial Traders (smart money) that can tell us what is going on underneath the market. This example of the Small Speculators (Dumb Money) is telling a bullish story about the 5 year note and interest rates. Take a look and see exactly how powerful this C.O.T. data really is!!
I always try and get on the side with the smart money which are the commercial traders. These are the men and women in the know as this is their lifeblood for their companies. The smart money is expecting much lower prices as the chart suggests with the blue line near the low area of its range. There is also a weekly transitional candle pattern this week as well. Lower prices are in the not to distant future for Cocoa!!
I always try and get on the side with the smart money which are the commercial traders. These are the men and women in the know as this is their lifeblood for their companies. The smart money is expecting much lower prices as the chart suggests with the blue line near the low area of its range. There is also a weekly transitional candle pattern this week as well. Lower prices are in the not to distant future for Cocoa!!
The soybeans are in much the same position as Corn, they are very vulnerable to the downside!
Take a look at the chart and you will see what I mean.
Remember that the commodity fund positions are deemed to be what movement the market is capable of. For example if the funds are extremely bullish as is the case here and the smart money is extremely bearish it causes a great set up for a markets collapse and this is across every market, not just soybeans.
Take a look at the chart and you will see what I mean.
Remember that the commodity fund positions are deemed to be what movement the market is capable of. For example if the funds are extremely bullish as is the case here and the smart money is extremely bearish it causes a great set up for a markets collapse and this is across every market, not just soybeans.
Weekend Stock Analysis
USEC had a nice snap back rally, however the intermediate term trend has stilled turned lower.
Revlon is looking like its shaping up and I continue to look for signs that a true rally is underway.
IndyMac, much like Corus Bancshares has made what appears to be a secular low.
Horton on the weekly chart is really shaping up nicely. The housing market looks like it has made its bottom and building and housing stocks seem to be a good buy.
Gander Mountain has been a great performer, but is brushing up against some strong resistance here. It will take some real strength to break through these levels, but if it is able to achieve this it should be clear sailing after that.
Ford continues to be on the watch list for a possible breakout!
DVSA continues to correct and should offer some potential once this short term correction has run its course. Take a look at the chart.
BDAY much like the other Three White Soldier stocks I have been following, continues to work lower.
Thursday, April 19, 2007
Educational Module - Evening Star CandleStick Pattern
I realize it has been a while since I posted an educational module and I apologize for the delay on my part.
I thought it fitting to continue along the lines of the candlestick patterns. The last module covered the Three White Soldiers and put the pattern into real time use to prove the usefulness of the pattern.
This module I want to show you yet another very reliable pattern, but on the bearish side this time. The pattern is the Evening Star and coupled with sell signals on other simple technical indicators this pattern can be very powerful!
Protecting yourself from a false signal is quite easy as well. There are times that an evening star pattern will form, but the stock or index will make one more nominal high before it begins its decline in earnest. Typically the stock will not rally anymore than 1.5% above the high, so should you see this level taken out it is a warning to you that the pattern may not be valid.
Take a look at the two examples I have given you. We will follow these stocks in real time to see how this pattern works. I will also look for the pattern in a few other stocks along the way and we can put those to the test as well.
I thought it fitting to continue along the lines of the candlestick patterns. The last module covered the Three White Soldiers and put the pattern into real time use to prove the usefulness of the pattern.
This module I want to show you yet another very reliable pattern, but on the bearish side this time. The pattern is the Evening Star and coupled with sell signals on other simple technical indicators this pattern can be very powerful!
Protecting yourself from a false signal is quite easy as well. There are times that an evening star pattern will form, but the stock or index will make one more nominal high before it begins its decline in earnest. Typically the stock will not rally anymore than 1.5% above the high, so should you see this level taken out it is a warning to you that the pattern may not be valid.
Take a look at the two examples I have given you. We will follow these stocks in real time to see how this pattern works. I will also look for the pattern in a few other stocks along the way and we can put those to the test as well.
FORD - Possible Breakout from Pattern
The symmetrical triangle on Ford is very interesting and not just because it is a symmetrical pattern. There are some other things going on here, such as the width of the Bollinger Bands getting very narrow. When these bands get narrow it portends a sharp break one way or the other, much like the symmetrical triangle. A straddle is a smart way to play this pattern.
I personally think that the price is going to break higher as the trend going into the narrowing of the Bollinger Bands was up and typically a stock will breakout in the direction of the trend just before the bands narrow. It is going to be very interesting to see what happens!!
Keep and eye on this one as it might just offer some educational value!!
I personally think that the price is going to break higher as the trend going into the narrowing of the Bollinger Bands was up and typically a stock will breakout in the direction of the trend just before the bands narrow. It is going to be very interesting to see what happens!!
Keep and eye on this one as it might just offer some educational value!!
Daily Market Comment
Equity - While the DOW and S&P 500 continue to hold their price levels quite well, the broader indexes have already entered the corrective phase. It remains only a matter of time before the S&P 500 follows suit. It also looks as if the Chinese Market could be in a bit of trouble short term here, so we will have to wait and see what effect that has on our markets.
10 Year Note - Rates continue to look like they will move lower, with a minimum target of 4.475% on the 10 year note.
Cocoa - Resumed its decline today in full force after its failed rally attempt yesterday. Cocoa continues to have some real potential to collapse in price!!
Corn - Continues to rest before the decline continues. I continue to look at the $4 area basis the July contract to hold any rallies. I am very bearish on the intermediate term.
Sugar #11 - Fairly decent rally in Sugar today and very constructive that the lows of yesterday were not violated. Sugar still has to prove itself, but today was a start. Once Sugar does prove itself it has some great upside potential.
Crude Oil - Continues its retreat with the $60 area the first major area of support. Take a look at the most recent post on Crude to get the entire story. Here is a hint - BUBBLE!!!
USEC Corp. - USU is showing a serious shift into bearish hands. While the action today does offer some potential for a small snap back rally. However, the intermediate term has turned bearish and we need to look for support at 16 1/2, 15 1/8 and 13 3/4.
BDAY, DF and DVSA - Continue their corrective patterns.
Ford - I will be posting an opinion on Ford as the stock today closed in an area that my launch quite an assault upwards.
10 Year Note - Rates continue to look like they will move lower, with a minimum target of 4.475% on the 10 year note.
Cocoa - Resumed its decline today in full force after its failed rally attempt yesterday. Cocoa continues to have some real potential to collapse in price!!
Corn - Continues to rest before the decline continues. I continue to look at the $4 area basis the July contract to hold any rallies. I am very bearish on the intermediate term.
Sugar #11 - Fairly decent rally in Sugar today and very constructive that the lows of yesterday were not violated. Sugar still has to prove itself, but today was a start. Once Sugar does prove itself it has some great upside potential.
Crude Oil - Continues its retreat with the $60 area the first major area of support. Take a look at the most recent post on Crude to get the entire story. Here is a hint - BUBBLE!!!
USEC Corp. - USU is showing a serious shift into bearish hands. While the action today does offer some potential for a small snap back rally. However, the intermediate term has turned bearish and we need to look for support at 16 1/2, 15 1/8 and 13 3/4.
BDAY, DF and DVSA - Continue their corrective patterns.
Ford - I will be posting an opinion on Ford as the stock today closed in an area that my launch quite an assault upwards.
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Opportunities in Beaten Down Housing Sector.
As usual Wall Street has over-reacted to what it considered a looming time bomb. I am talking about the supposed real estate bubble that never was. You know, the bubble that was being talked about for 2 1/2 years.
If everyone is talking about a bubble guess what..... There isn't one!!
With that being said, there are some opportunities in the Building, Materials and Real Estate Market. Below you will find the first in that group and one that offers some great potential.
If everyone is talking about a bubble guess what..... There isn't one!!
With that being said, there are some opportunities in the Building, Materials and Real Estate Market. Below you will find the first in that group and one that offers some great potential.
Daily Market Comment
Equity - While no evening star pattern was made today, the short term model did go negative. Expect an intermediate term correction to begin.
10 Year Note - Rates continue to move sharply lower and very close to an intermediate trend change which should bring rates on the 10 Year Note down below the most recent low at 4.475%.
Cocoa - Strong downside reversal today as cocoa attempted to rally to new highs. Some follow through on Thursday would be constructive for the bearish argument, but the price action seems very much like a commodity that wants to move lower.
Corn - No change in analysis. Please refer to yesterdays post on Corn.
Sugar #11 - Sugar, while it has some excellent upside prospects, continues to work its way lower. It is exactly this type of market action that makes confirmation of a possible trend change imperative to trading profitably. While the decline today was sharp, it does not take away from Sugar remaining on the watch list and quite the contrary, the market needs to be observed even closer for a potential washout bottom!
USEC Corp. - (USU) Confirmation of an intermediate term trend change from up to down was signaled today. Support levels are as follows - 16 1/2, 15 1/8 and 13 3/4. I anticipate this pullback to be nothing more than a normal correction in its ongoing bull market.
BDAY, DF and DVSA - All continue with their corrective patterns. You can review their support levels on earlier posts.
10 Year Note - Rates continue to move sharply lower and very close to an intermediate trend change which should bring rates on the 10 Year Note down below the most recent low at 4.475%.
Cocoa - Strong downside reversal today as cocoa attempted to rally to new highs. Some follow through on Thursday would be constructive for the bearish argument, but the price action seems very much like a commodity that wants to move lower.
Corn - No change in analysis. Please refer to yesterdays post on Corn.
Sugar #11 - Sugar, while it has some excellent upside prospects, continues to work its way lower. It is exactly this type of market action that makes confirmation of a possible trend change imperative to trading profitably. While the decline today was sharp, it does not take away from Sugar remaining on the watch list and quite the contrary, the market needs to be observed even closer for a potential washout bottom!
USEC Corp. - (USU) Confirmation of an intermediate term trend change from up to down was signaled today. Support levels are as follows - 16 1/2, 15 1/8 and 13 3/4. I anticipate this pullback to be nothing more than a normal correction in its ongoing bull market.
BDAY, DF and DVSA - All continue with their corrective patterns. You can review their support levels on earlier posts.
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
The Never Ending REIT Rally!!
While residential builders have been getting clocked over the last 18 months or so, the Commercial Real Estate Market remains very robust.
Take a look at the REIT Industry chart, it has some real potential.
By the way, the residential home building market looks like it bottomed about 6 months ago and there are some great bargains out there.
Take a look at the REIT Industry chart, it has some real potential.
By the way, the residential home building market looks like it bottomed about 6 months ago and there are some great bargains out there.
Individual Stock Analysis
The Moment of Truth for Revlon!
The stock has had a multitude of false starts and it needs to prove that this is not just yet another fake out.
The stock has had a multitude of false starts and it needs to prove that this is not just yet another fake out.
GM - General Motors after its breakout of the coil yesterday has stalled and could break down a little bit here. The focus however is that the double bottom in GM represents an intermediate term low and although the day to day fluctuations may get a bit hairy, the intermediate term needs to be the focus.
DF, DVSA and BDAY - All three of these issues are looking like they need a rest and a retreat in price would keep their rally from the Three Wide Soldiers Healthy.
The Potential Demise Of Crude Oil
Crude Oil looks poised to begin the next leg down of the bear market it entered after briefly touching $80 per Barrel.
I have two charts here, the first is the daily chart and the second is a weekly chart.
What I want you to notice on the daily chart is the evening start pattern that was completed yesterday and confirmed today. This pattern has very bearish implications for the crude oil market.
The Weekly chart below has its analysis right on the chart and trust me when I say that my take on the Petrol Complex puts me in about the 2% minority for my outlook. Most continue to think that the world has entered a new era of higher gas and oil prices and the low end of this range is $50. As you can see I disagree!! Does anybody remember the last time we entered a supposed New Era and Traditional valuation Modules were considered outdated and of no value.
TECH BUBBLE!!
It is going to be very interesting to see what Crude does from this point forward.
I have two charts here, the first is the daily chart and the second is a weekly chart.
What I want you to notice on the daily chart is the evening start pattern that was completed yesterday and confirmed today. This pattern has very bearish implications for the crude oil market.
The Weekly chart below has its analysis right on the chart and trust me when I say that my take on the Petrol Complex puts me in about the 2% minority for my outlook. Most continue to think that the world has entered a new era of higher gas and oil prices and the low end of this range is $50. As you can see I disagree!! Does anybody remember the last time we entered a supposed New Era and Traditional valuation Modules were considered outdated and of no value.
TECH BUBBLE!!
It is going to be very interesting to see what Crude does from this point forward.
Daily Market Comment
Equity - Mixed day in equities today and a very narrow range for the S&P 500. I still continue to look for a correction in here.
The seasonal chart shows a peak in the April 16-17th area and a low made in the last 2 trading days of April.
S&P 500 has potential to make a bearish evening star pattern, so tomorrow will be quite key.
Cocoa - Testing the highs, but market is still very vulnerable to a mini-crash. The cocoa market should turn lower from here with a possible brief new high.
The seasonal chart shows a peak in the April 16-17th area and a low made in the last 2 trading days of April.
S&P 500 has potential to make a bearish evening star pattern, so tomorrow will be quite key.
10 Year Note - Looks like it has almost made up its mind for rates to move lower. A crossing of the MACD will help to confirm the shift in the intermediate term trend.
Cocoa - Testing the highs, but market is still very vulnerable to a mini-crash. The cocoa market should turn lower from here with a possible brief new high.
Corn - Market is at the short term crossroads. Corn could have a sharp rally from here and retrace a bit more of the most recent decline or it could break and make a new low to end the first leg down.
Regardless of the direction it takes, the long and intermediate term in Corn is bearish!!
Sugar #11 - Continues to have strong rally potential, but a few more confirmations are needed before it can be taken in a serious manner.
Analysis of stocks will be updated later tonight.
I will mention that you should take a look at Ford as it offers a potential rally phase to above $11. I will be covering this in more detail later. Short term I expect Ford to continue to show weakness.
Monday, April 16, 2007
Daily Market Comment
EQUITY - Foiled again as the S&P 500 continues its rally phase with a very strong earnings based move. As is always the case, THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT and my analysis is secondary only. This alone is a very good lesson and one if you learn it early in your investing career can save you a lot of money. While no hedge was put in place as I had anticipated only a minor reaction in the vast scheme of things, it is always a little frustrating when your short term analysis goes astray.
That being said, I am still awaiting a pullback in stock prices to add to existing positions, especially USEC Corp. Once I get strong confirmation that a correction has begun I will post the support levels for the decline. The support levels I had previously posted are no longer valid with the strength today.
10 Year Note - Strong daily signal today that calls for a rally in bond prices. While the intermediate term model continues to suggest a falling bond market, if the 10 year note can be persuasive enough on the daily work then it may be time to establish some sort of position to capitalize on a rally in bond prices.
Corn and Cocoa - No real change in the condition of these markets. Please refer to the previous analysis on these commodities.
Sugar #11 - May yet attempt to test the most recent lows, but the work continues to suggest we are very close to a major low in the Sugar market and a substantial rally is in the near future. Stay tuned to this market for sure!!
Crude Oil - I will be posting a more detailed analysis of Crude Oil in the next couple of days. The gist of which will be why Crude Prices may be on the verge of another sharp decline.
GM - Broke out of its coil today to the upside on decent volume, not stellar volume, but enough to attract attention. Look for first strong resistance at $34 1/8.
DF - Much like the S&P 500, Dean Foods continues to rally strongly from the Three White Soldiers CandleStick Pattern. All of our real time Three White Soldier Pattern examples have done very well and should they come to find support on a pullback to the most logical area it will be an excellent example for educational purposes.
DVSA - Bearish reversal today which helps to support the pullback to 7 1/8 theory.
BDAY - Celebration currently is producing a short term distribution pattern that should culminate with a decline to 7 3/4-8.
I will be posting more Three White Soldier Patterns in the not to distant future.
There will also be a new Educational Module soon that will continue on the theme of reliable candlestick patterns that are not overly used.
That being said, I am still awaiting a pullback in stock prices to add to existing positions, especially USEC Corp. Once I get strong confirmation that a correction has begun I will post the support levels for the decline. The support levels I had previously posted are no longer valid with the strength today.
10 Year Note - Strong daily signal today that calls for a rally in bond prices. While the intermediate term model continues to suggest a falling bond market, if the 10 year note can be persuasive enough on the daily work then it may be time to establish some sort of position to capitalize on a rally in bond prices.
Corn and Cocoa - No real change in the condition of these markets. Please refer to the previous analysis on these commodities.
Sugar #11 - May yet attempt to test the most recent lows, but the work continues to suggest we are very close to a major low in the Sugar market and a substantial rally is in the near future. Stay tuned to this market for sure!!
Crude Oil - I will be posting a more detailed analysis of Crude Oil in the next couple of days. The gist of which will be why Crude Prices may be on the verge of another sharp decline.
GM - Broke out of its coil today to the upside on decent volume, not stellar volume, but enough to attract attention. Look for first strong resistance at $34 1/8.
DF - Much like the S&P 500, Dean Foods continues to rally strongly from the Three White Soldiers CandleStick Pattern. All of our real time Three White Soldier Pattern examples have done very well and should they come to find support on a pullback to the most logical area it will be an excellent example for educational purposes.
DVSA - Bearish reversal today which helps to support the pullback to 7 1/8 theory.
BDAY - Celebration currently is producing a short term distribution pattern that should culminate with a decline to 7 3/4-8.
I will be posting more Three White Soldier Patterns in the not to distant future.
There will also be a new Educational Module soon that will continue on the theme of reliable candlestick patterns that are not overly used.
AGL Update
Here is an update on AGL.
Notice that it has broken hard back into the consolidation zone.
Should see some strong support at 25 1/4.
Daily Market Comment will be Late tonight, try checking it first thing Tuesday morning.
Notice that it has broken hard back into the consolidation zone.
Should see some strong support at 25 1/4.
Daily Market Comment will be Late tonight, try checking it first thing Tuesday morning.
Revlon
Is there something bullish going on with Revlon?
There has been not only massive Insider accumulation through this long low level trading range, but also heavy institutional purchases as well.
The stock has also been churning for quite sometime and this is bullish as well.
To early to tell, but a better picture will be painted on the first pullback.
Keep an eye on it!!
There has been not only massive Insider accumulation through this long low level trading range, but also heavy institutional purchases as well.
The stock has also been churning for quite sometime and this is bullish as well.
To early to tell, but a better picture will be painted on the first pullback.
Keep an eye on it!!
CORUS BANKSHARES - Potential Secular Low!!
Times like these are when I look back and am very glad I keep my ear to the ground.
Take a look at CORS!!
Take a look at CORS!!
White Mountain - The Next Berkshire Hathaway??
Although I have already made mention of this potential powerhouse, I thought it important to reiterate the long term potential of White Mountain.
Do yourself a big favor and research it, you will be very happy you did.
You can also go back on the Blog and see my previous comments.
Do yourself a big favor and research it, you will be very happy you did.
You can also go back on the Blog and see my previous comments.
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Sugar #11 Something Big is About to Happen!!
Sugar is starting to take form as perhaps the next big mover. Please take a look at the two charts along with the commentary on each one. Although I cannot rule out one last push lower, the odds of this happening are getting very small and with just a few more confirmations Sugar has some real potential!!
Saturday, April 14, 2007
Weekend Markets Comment
Equity Markets - While at this time last week I had thought the equity market would begin its intermediate term correction last week, the S&P 500 could only muster a little more than a 0.63% gain on the week. This small gain coupled with intraday volatility has helped to give more confirmation to the theory that the equity markets are in a transition short term from up to down. Weekly sentiment readings show only about 4% bearish on Friday which translates into an environment for a decline. It is important to remember that this decline will be nothing more than a correction from the March Lows.
Support Levels for the S&P 500 -
1st - 1419
Support Levels for the S&P 500 -
1st - 1419
2nd - 1408
Last - 1398
10 Year Note - There simply are too many conflicting signals in the credit markets. The intermediate term model is suggesting that rates will continue to go up and bond prices will go down. The Short term model is telling me that there has been a short term top in rates and they should start to work lower. No clear cut signal, so in doubt stay out!
Corn - Corn prices look like they want to continue their short term rally. This should only be a rally in a bear market for corn, but prices do look to move higher.
Cocoa - After 4 days of indecisive action, cocoa looks to move lower once again. The potential for a small crash in prices is very possible.
Sugar #11 - I have been talking for a bit about the potential of Sugar getting into a position to have a strong rally. I will be posting a chart and commentary on Sugar in the next couple of days. It is very close to a major low if not already there. Keep an eye on it.
USEC Corp. - I had been looking for USU to pullback with the market in order to add more to the core position. The stock continues to exhibit exceptional strength and Monday it should have yet another stellar day. Although I had expected a small decline I certainly am not complaining.
BDAY - Continues to look poised for a decline to the 7 1/4 to 7 1/8 area before resuming its rally.
DF - Dean Foods, after a very nice rally from the Three White Soldiers is starting to look a bit fatigued here. A pullback to 32 1/4 would not be out of the question.
DVSA - Much like BDAY and DF a pullback seems to be in the cards. Look for strong support at 7 3/8.
GM - Currently making a coil or triangle as some would call it, so the short term direction will be based upon the completion of this pattern and which way it wants to break. Intermediate term I am still very bullish on GM especially after the double bottom at $29.
Friday, April 13, 2007
Where are Stocks Headed Short Term (5-12 days)
From time to time my short term model may continue to call for a correction and the market continues to trend higher. Typically the market will struggle to move higher when the short term model has turned negative.
This is the case we have currently and although I had expected the market to continue its decline from this past Wed. This pattern that currently is developing is very reliable. So I STILL am expecting a correction of Intermediate term basis after which I anticipate perhaps the strongest rally phase of 2007.
Please take a look at the hourly chart below as it too has a story to tell.
My full update covering all markets will be made this weekend, I hope you all have time to come on by and take a look.
This is the case we have currently and although I had expected the market to continue its decline from this past Wed. This pattern that currently is developing is very reliable. So I STILL am expecting a correction of Intermediate term basis after which I anticipate perhaps the strongest rally phase of 2007.
Please take a look at the hourly chart below as it too has a story to tell.
My full update covering all markets will be made this weekend, I hope you all have time to come on by and take a look.
Equity Intra Day Health
While the equity markets have moved higher than I thought they would, the short term model continues to call for an intermediate term correction.
On an Intra-Day basis, the S&P 500 looks like it is setting itself up for a late afternoon sell-off. Time will tell of course.
On an Intra-Day basis, the S&P 500 looks like it is setting itself up for a late afternoon sell-off. Time will tell of course.
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Daily Market Comment
Equity - While the equity markets snapped back nicely today, the models continue to suggest that we have entered into a corrective phase and should see lower prices over the near term.
10 Year Note - The 10 year note continues to mark time as it seems to be stuck here. I still anticipate higher bond prices and lower yields over the near term.
Corn - No Change in the outlook for corn, please take a look at yesterdays comment.
Cocoa - Still Bearish on Cocoa, as with Corn, take a look at yesterdays comment for the skinny!
Crude Oil - Appears to me that it has completed its counter-trend rally and should now continue to work lower, perhaps sharply so!!
USEC Corp - USU, much like the broad market had a very nice comeback rally today. However as is the case with stocks I continue to think that USU has entered and intermediate term corrective phase and we should see lower prices.
BDAY - Looks like it has entered its corrective phase in full force. I am still looking for the $7.50-$7.60 area to be reached before the rally continues.
Dean Foods - DF has been quite the star!! Since the Three White Soldiers Pattern that I went over in detail, the stock is up better than 10%. It requires repeating that the THREE WHITE SOLDIERS pattern is one of the most powerful and reliable and ignored as well.
New Educational Module will be forthcoming this weekend.
10 Year Note - The 10 year note continues to mark time as it seems to be stuck here. I still anticipate higher bond prices and lower yields over the near term.
Corn - No Change in the outlook for corn, please take a look at yesterdays comment.
Cocoa - Still Bearish on Cocoa, as with Corn, take a look at yesterdays comment for the skinny!
Crude Oil - Appears to me that it has completed its counter-trend rally and should now continue to work lower, perhaps sharply so!!
USEC Corp - USU, much like the broad market had a very nice comeback rally today. However as is the case with stocks I continue to think that USU has entered and intermediate term corrective phase and we should see lower prices.
BDAY - Looks like it has entered its corrective phase in full force. I am still looking for the $7.50-$7.60 area to be reached before the rally continues.
Dean Foods - DF has been quite the star!! Since the Three White Soldiers Pattern that I went over in detail, the stock is up better than 10%. It requires repeating that the THREE WHITE SOLDIERS pattern is one of the most powerful and reliable and ignored as well.
New Educational Module will be forthcoming this weekend.
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Daily Market Comment
EQUITY - It appears that the intermediate term decline has commenced. Support levels for this decline should be 1416, 1406 and 1396, with 1406 the most logical level for support.
10 Year Note - While I continue to expect the 10 year note to rally as the equity markets go through their intermediate term decline, today the credit markets were spooked by the petroleum inventory numbers. However, they reacted much more extreme that the petrol markets themselves so I do expect this little increase in rates not to hold. Look for rates to move lower over the near term.
CORN - It is very possible that the small short counter-trend rally we had in Corn is all the market could muster up. Thursday is going to be a good indication as to the short term health of Corn. If it continues to move lower then look for the intermediate term downtrend to continue in earnest. Corn still has a long way to go on the downside before it gets even close to an all clear area.
COCOA - Another rally attempt in Cocoa today that was met with failure. Much like Corn, Thursday is going to be a key day to indicate the future short term price movement for Cocoa. I am expecting sharply lower prices to continue.
CRUDE OIL - The last 2 days has seen Crude attempt to stabilize after its hard 5 day decline. I do not think Crude will be able to fend off the sellers in here and I continue to look for sharply lower oil prices.
USU - The intermediate term decline in USEC Corp. looks like it started today with a sharply lower day. However, after a stock such as this has accumulated so much support over its most recent rally, we need to expect some type of snap back before the stock begins its decline in earnest. This may be as simple as an intraday move or it might take a day or two. Personally I see it taking place on an intraday basis.
DVSA, BDAY and DF - No real change in the condition of these stocks. Although Dean Foods had a very impressive rally today it continues to produce a pattern that foretells of a sharp sell off. Of course all three of these stocks appear to have put in a major trend shift with the formation of the Three White Soldiers I am merely looking for them to pull back to their respective levels associated with the pattern. If you cannot remember where that price level is take a look back at the educational module on the candlestick pattern.
10 Year Note - While I continue to expect the 10 year note to rally as the equity markets go through their intermediate term decline, today the credit markets were spooked by the petroleum inventory numbers. However, they reacted much more extreme that the petrol markets themselves so I do expect this little increase in rates not to hold. Look for rates to move lower over the near term.
CORN - It is very possible that the small short counter-trend rally we had in Corn is all the market could muster up. Thursday is going to be a good indication as to the short term health of Corn. If it continues to move lower then look for the intermediate term downtrend to continue in earnest. Corn still has a long way to go on the downside before it gets even close to an all clear area.
COCOA - Another rally attempt in Cocoa today that was met with failure. Much like Corn, Thursday is going to be a key day to indicate the future short term price movement for Cocoa. I am expecting sharply lower prices to continue.
CRUDE OIL - The last 2 days has seen Crude attempt to stabilize after its hard 5 day decline. I do not think Crude will be able to fend off the sellers in here and I continue to look for sharply lower oil prices.
USU - The intermediate term decline in USEC Corp. looks like it started today with a sharply lower day. However, after a stock such as this has accumulated so much support over its most recent rally, we need to expect some type of snap back before the stock begins its decline in earnest. This may be as simple as an intraday move or it might take a day or two. Personally I see it taking place on an intraday basis.
DVSA, BDAY and DF - No real change in the condition of these stocks. Although Dean Foods had a very impressive rally today it continues to produce a pattern that foretells of a sharp sell off. Of course all three of these stocks appear to have put in a major trend shift with the formation of the Three White Soldiers I am merely looking for them to pull back to their respective levels associated with the pattern. If you cannot remember where that price level is take a look back at the educational module on the candlestick pattern.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
USEC Corp Looks Like it Made a LAST GASP Rally Today!
USU has had a great run, but it is exhibiting signs that it is very tired after its climb, so to lighten up on the position might be prudent.
Of course none of this changes the super bullish potential long term for this stock, but a pullback $13-$14 area is a real possibility.
DVSA, BDAY and DF appear to be about in the same position they have been in over the last few days. I anticipate a pullback in all of them before moving higher again. Dean Foods (DF) especially has the potential to decline sharply. We will watch and see.
Of course none of this changes the super bullish potential long term for this stock, but a pullback $13-$14 area is a real possibility.
DVSA, BDAY and DF appear to be about in the same position they have been in over the last few days. I anticipate a pullback in all of them before moving higher again. Dean Foods (DF) especially has the potential to decline sharply. We will watch and see.
Daily Market Comment
Really No Changes in the Condition of the Markets, so Please Refer to Yesterdays Comments.
I do have one daily chart of the S&P 500 that you might find interesting. Living on borrowed time, short term.
I will address the stocks in a separate post and a new Educational Module is on the way too, so check back soon!!
Monday, April 9, 2007
Daily Market Comment
Equity - Short term it appears the market has turned and should move lower from here. I am expecting this to be an intermediate term decline that may cause some concern among most investors, thus setting up an environment to launch a very strong upside move.
10 Year Note - Continues to act as if it wants to rally strongly.
Corn - Quite the volatile day in the grains today. The intermediate term trend is clearly down. On the short term it looks like it needs to move a bit lower before completing its counter trend rally.
Cocoa - Resumed its decline today and should continue to move sharply lower over the next 4-7 trading days. Has some potential to really collapse here.
Crude Oil - Did some major technical damage today. Please refer to my weekend comment on Crude to see the intermediate term potential.
USU - Very impressive rally today. Although I do expect USU to pull back, it will only be used to add to a long term position. The extended term condition of USU remains very strong!
DVSA - Has rolled over and should find strong support in the 7 1/8 - 7 1/4 area before it continues its uptrend.
BDAY - Has completed what appears to be the first up leg in the start of a long term uptrend. I am looking for the stock to move towards 9 1/8 before moving higher once again. This is one of our real time candlestick examples.
Sugar - Starting to develop into a potential explosion on the upside, but still has some work to do.
10 Year Note - Continues to act as if it wants to rally strongly.
Corn - Quite the volatile day in the grains today. The intermediate term trend is clearly down. On the short term it looks like it needs to move a bit lower before completing its counter trend rally.
Cocoa - Resumed its decline today and should continue to move sharply lower over the next 4-7 trading days. Has some potential to really collapse here.
Crude Oil - Did some major technical damage today. Please refer to my weekend comment on Crude to see the intermediate term potential.
USU - Very impressive rally today. Although I do expect USU to pull back, it will only be used to add to a long term position. The extended term condition of USU remains very strong!
DVSA - Has rolled over and should find strong support in the 7 1/8 - 7 1/4 area before it continues its uptrend.
BDAY - Has completed what appears to be the first up leg in the start of a long term uptrend. I am looking for the stock to move towards 9 1/8 before moving higher once again. This is one of our real time candlestick examples.
Sugar - Starting to develop into a potential explosion on the upside, but still has some work to do.
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