Friday, April 20, 2007

Weekend Commodity Market Analysis

It just does not look good for Corn and all the late party attendees on the Ethanol craze.


The smart money continues to warn against the impending implosion of crude oil prices. I have a feeling it is going to catch many off guard and this could cause it to get very ugly!!

It is not only the Commercial Traders (smart money) that can tell us what is going on underneath the market. This example of the Small Speculators (Dumb Money) is telling a bullish story about the 5 year note and interest rates. Take a look and see exactly how powerful this C.O.T. data really is!!
I always try and get on the side with the smart money which are the commercial traders. These are the men and women in the know as this is their lifeblood for their companies. The smart money is expecting much lower prices as the chart suggests with the blue line near the low area of its range. There is also a weekly transitional candle pattern this week as well. Lower prices are in the not to distant future for Cocoa!!



The soybeans are in much the same position as Corn, they are very vulnerable to the downside!
Take a look at the chart and you will see what I mean.

Remember that the commodity fund positions are deemed to be what movement the market is capable of. For example if the funds are extremely bullish as is the case here and the smart money is extremely bearish it causes a great set up for a markets collapse and this is across every market, not just soybeans.





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