Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Equity Market Comment - 6/3/2008

As you can see, the trading pattern is currently in the second leg down as represented by the second downward sloping green line on the left side of the chart. With this in mind, it appears that we have quite a bit more downside left before we get a decent rally to trade.

However, there are some mixed signals that may portend a one to two day rally before resuming the decline. More on these scenarios are below.

After a brief attempt at a rally early in the session, the sellers used that strength to continue their selling, which has not been a surprise to us.

The intermediate term trend remains down as it appears a new leg of the bear market has begun. Of course this will not be 100% confirmed until we see the lows of 1260 on the S&P 500 cash violated, but caution remains the word on the street here.

From the short term perspective we have reached a point where we could make a move either way.

On one hand the market is very oversold and we have reached price levels that typically see some type of counter trend rally, perhaps 50% of this most recent 40 point S&P 500 decline.

On the other hand, there are multiple signals from the short term charts that we may just be entering into an acceleration phase of this decline.

With conflicting short term scenarios such as this, I have no choice but to stand aside in a neutral position and see where the market wants to go next.

If in fact we see some downside follow through tomorrow and then some stabilization, then we can probably expect a counter trend rally of 20-25 S&P 500 points, so a rally worth trading.

Short Term Traders should stand aside until there is some confirmations to the next trade able move. We have some very handsome profits off this decline so far and it certainly would not be a bad idea to cash some if not all of those profits in.

Intermediate Term Traders should continue to exercise caution and stick to an extremely defensive 20-25% allocation towards stocks.


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