Monday, February 4, 2008


A normal breather day today as the market has made some fairly impressive gains since the lows on January 23rd.

The two day pattern we finished today, actually can lead to a blow off move higher, but it would seem that currently the upside may be limited to the low 1420's. Not that I am sneezing at a 40 point move in the S&P 500, but on a short term basis we must exercise some caution.

We have some overbought readings on quite a few of our short term models, so it really will be no big surprise if we get some type of decline in prices. The characteristics of this potential decline will tells us quite a bit about where we currently stand in the scheme of things.

I am not anticipating a move directly lower from here, but one last push higher into the low 1420's on the cash S&P 500. It is at this point that I will take the rest of my leveraged ultra short term long positions off the table and await another opportunity to buy.

The NASD Summation index is a classic measurment of the strength behind a move and thus far it continues to confirm an intermediate term bottom at 2202.

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