EQUITY MARKET COMMENT - 1/15/2008

NOT A VERY PRETTY DAY TODAY AND IT CERTAINLY CONFIRMED MY RESERVATIONS ABOUT THE SHORT TERM THATS FOR SURE.

DOWNSIDE RISK REMAINS 1341-1353 AND A BREAK OF THAT LEVEL WOULD NOT BE HEALTHY FOR THE LONG TERM HEALTH OF THIS MARKET.

ALL OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS CLOSED LOWER TODAY, WHICH BELIEVE IT OR NOT DOES NOT HAPPEN OFTEN. THIS ONE INDICATOR BY ITSELF IS A GREAT INDICATION THAT SHORT TERM SENTIMENT MAY HAVE REACHED A BEARISH PINNACLE.

THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT WE WILL NOT SEE LOWER PRICES.
IT SIMPLY MEANS THAT THE SCENARIO I HAVE BEEN LAYING OUT OF A MARKET VERY CLOSE TO A LOW OF SOME MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE IS VERY CLOSE.

NO QUESTION THAT CAUTION IS THE WORD OF THE DAY, BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT WE SHOULD BE NEARING A MAJOR BUYING POINT AND TO KEEP YOUR POWDER DRY FOR JUST SUCH AN EVENT.

I REMAIN WITH A VERY CONSERVATIVE 40% ALLOCATION TO STOCKS AND UPON A CONFIRMATION OF A MAJOR LOW BEING PUT INTO PLACE I WILL BE MOVING THIS UP QUICKLY EVENTUALLY HITTING 150% IF ALL LOOKS WELL.

THE CONTINUED STRENGTH IN ADVANCING ISSUES OVER DECLINING ISSUES AS THE MARKET CONTINUES LOWER.

THIS IS ONE OF THE REASONS I HAVE YET TO TURN BEARISH ON THE LONGER TERM.


MUCH LIKE THE NYAD, THE M.O. CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNDERLYING STRENGTH TO THIS MARKET AND UNTIL THIS CHANGES I SEE NO REASON TO PANIC AND THROW IN THE CARDS.

REMAIN CAUTIOUS, BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A LOW AS WE SEEM TO BE GETTING VERY CLOSE TO THAT POINT.

THE CHART PRETTY MUCH SAYS IT ALL ABOUT THE CURRENT STATE OF THE EQUITY MARKETS.