While I do not subscribe to the current philosophy of a replay to 1987 carried by many, I do have some reservations as to whether or not the low made in mid August at 1370 on the S&P 500 is actually the ultimate low or simply the first leg down.
It is exactly this concern that has made me keep my hedge in place and while the market has been in a rally phase over the last 10 days there is very substantial evidence that this uptrend is at or near its completion.
The concern comes into play with the counter trend rally structure that has formed off the lows.
The price action has not been indicative of a new trend underway and thus sends a warning that the 1370 area on the S&P 500 may be only the first stop in a larger correction.
The key sign we need to look for is a penetration of the .618 retrace level off the lows. If this price level is breached and closed below then the odds increase that 1370 on the S&P 500 will be taken out.
I will be giving more specific price levels in the near future and as of now, the purchasing of new stocks for intermediate term profit has been put on hold.
If you did not take advantage of the last hedge we put in place back in June 2007, then you have another opportunity here to protect your portfolio holdings.
Understand that I am NOT advocating a Crash of any kind, but simply a deeper correction then first anticipated.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
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