Tuesday, August 21, 2007

EQUITY MARKET COMMENT - Make Up My Mind Already!

WHICH SIDE OF MY MOUTH AM I GOING TO TALK OUT OF TONIGHT!

Well, both actually! : )

After I had posted today's equity market comment I ran into something rather interesting with the short term model that has been so accurate, but was off the mark the last couple of days.

It actually is telling us two things and both at opposite ends of the spectrum.
One side is calling for lower prices tomorrow and the other side is calling for a subdued rally tomorrow. I say a subdued rally based on all the volatility we have had over the last 3 weeks.

Here is the Meat and Potatoes of this whole snafu.... It simply does not matter which scenario plays out as we can work it to our advantage either way.

This is what I mean.... Should the market have a decent rally of say 6-9 S&P points then it becomes a very low risk short position and we already know that the market should move lower before it rallies in earnest, so should it move sharply lower then we can go long and/or cover more of our hedges.

So in a matter of speaking, this confusion and double speak can be used to the advantage.

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