The Intermediate Direction of Corn

Corn has reached a crossroads of sorts.

With the price brushing up against the moving average it should be make or break time.

Long Term corn remains in a bear market as told by the Commercial Traders Positions.

We have great profits in the corn and a trailing stop just above the moving average on a closing
basis is in place.

Sentiment Tells Us Lower Prices Are Still In The Cards

What is it going to take to get the masses nervous again and on their guard!

Even after a decline of 7.8%, we really have yet to see the masses in a panic.
The chart above is just one indication of this. If the market was putting in a low of some sort
then we would expect this sentiment measure to be at a higher ratio.

All of these things really help to support the theory that we will get a 12-15% correction before a low of substance is put into place. Right now it looks like most investors are just looking at this pullback as a normal correction in an ongoing bull market.

However, get the indexes down 12-15% and I am sure the vast majority will be screaming Bear Market. At the time that this occurs....BUY BUY BUY!!

Sometimes It Happens

Days like these are exactly why tight stops are needed if you are going to try and catch a falling knife!

Tried to get long twice today and got stopped out twice.
Thank God for Stop Limit Orders!

Days like these are also for very aggressive traders only.

The Silver Lining is that the hedge I put into place on my core holdings is making me immune to all of this decline.

Buy WCI

Time to Get Into WCI, Right Here and Right Now!

Re-establish Long on S&P 500

Stopped out of the initial Buy.

So lets try it again in here and see if it sticks.

Aggressive Buy WCI

One more pullback in WCI to $5.38 and it will be time to buy.

A buy limit order at 5.38 would be the prudent thing to do.

Watch also for a break of the blue line.

This will be an average down trade, but one I think that will pay off well.

Please keep in mind that this is a very aggressive trade!

USEC - Initial Buy or Add To Long Position!

USU looks to be in about the same position as the general market.

If you did not have a chance to jump on board the long side a couple of days ago, then another
opportunity is presented here for you!

Ready to push Higher Again?

S&P 500 looks to have established another short term low at this very moment.

I would not be at all shocked to see the markets finish unchanged or up for the day!

Where Should The Dow Find Heavy Overhead Resistance

I have gotten quite a few questions regarding where the Dow should most likely find heavy resistance and thus a good place to perhaps sell short or buy puts for a quick slam bam!

The most logical Dow upside target from here is 13685 +/- 20 points. From this point I expect the rally to fade and the market to give one final collapse down to the 200 day moving average, which currently sits at 12785.

12785 +/- 20 points should be the ultimate low and should this occur on August 24th +/- 2 days then we will really be in great shape for a phenomenal rally.

I will be sending out the buy list to execute once the downside has been satisfied.
In the meantime, keep your hedge in place and pay attention to how quickly the all clear is sounded just before the next slam.

Simply A Great Tool

The Rydex Cash Flow Index will need to push to a new low before we can assume the final low is in place.

There are just too many things that are not resolved to call the most recent low the ultimate one.

This chart is courtesy of Decisionpoint.com.
I strong encourage you to take a look at their site, it is a wealth of good information!!

Lumber - Full Long Line In Place

Lumber mad a nice move today!

If my analysis is correct, then this next leg up should be fast and sharp.

The characteristic of the ensuing rally or even the lack thereof, is going to tell us much about the health of Lumber.

White Mountain Update

If you are new to the blog then you need to know about White Mountain Insurance.

I have been buying it over time, with large purchases at specific levels of correction.
We currently are at another one of those lump sum investment levels.

This stock is going to be the next Berkshire Hathaway over the long term, so load up now!!

Gander Mountain

Very low risk proposition here on buying Gander Mountain.

Potential to $22, with a very small amount of risk as the stop should be place right at $9.

The State of Our National Currency

This is a Monthly chart of the Dollar Index and as you can plainly see we are in a time frame now to see some type of secular trend change.

This monthly chart supports the other analysis for a higher dollar, just when all the dollar bashers are at the height of their power.

The Euro and The Pound are going to be especially sensitive to this trend change.

Counter Trend Move Well Underway In Equities

The counter trend move in stock prices is well underway and showing all the traditional
characteristics of a counter move.

We continue to keep the hedge in place and look towards the end of August for the ultimate low.

I don't really expect this counter rally to be a straight up shot. Instead I think it might take a week to 10 days to hammer it out.

USEC Update

USEC corp looks to have started its counter trend move towards the $21-$22 area before the final low is put into place at $14.

I am playing the long side just in case the correction is completely over.
Either way, the long side should prove to be profitable.

Further Evidence the Final Low is Not in Place

In addition to many market analysts already giving the all clear signal, you can clearly see
that this decline was in a five wave structure which cannot terminate a decline.

This supports my outlook for a good solid rally, giving false hope that the decline is over.

This will promptly be followed by the final leg down.

Mark August 24th on your calendar as a window for the ultimate low.

The silver lining to this decline is that the next move higher is going to be ultra-explosive!

Imbalances and Fear offer Some Great Bargains

Buying Quality when it goes on clearance is a great way to build the value of your portfolio in a hurry.

Instances such as these happen about every 24 months and a 5% allocation to these stocks can pay some handsome returns.

WCI is just one of many that are of incredible value here.
Take a look at Arbor Realty (ABR) also. The stock has been hammered and offers tremendous value. It also currently carries an 11.4% dividend yield that should be safe.

Educational Module #1 - Part III

The Three White Soldiers pattern today is on a very aggressive play, but one that offers some excellent return potential in a short amount of time.

I wanted to get a wide array of stocks with this pattern so you can see how each type of stock reacts to the pattern.

Once again, we look to buy the stock at the half way point of the second candle in the pattern.
This puts our buy in zone at $1.42.

Corn - Once again at the Crossroads

Things could get ugly to the downside in Corn again.