Keeping a very close stop makes this an ideal trade.
If things go as planned then lumber should rally very strongly.
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
Lumber - Get On Board
Lumber remains in the area for purchase.
Keeping a very close stop makes this an ideal trade.
If things go as planned then lumber should rally very strongly.
Keeping a very close stop makes this an ideal trade.
If things go as planned then lumber should rally very strongly.
TNH - Under The Careful Watchful Eye
TNH continues to move lower towards its buy zone.
Keep a close eye on this one as it is a mover!!
Keep a close eye on this one as it is a mover!!
ROCM - Real Time Educational Module
Although ROCM went a bit below the buy target, it was purchased just the same.
Short Term Low
The price action today is indicative of a short term low being put in place.
It appears that the first leg of the intermediate term decline is over.
Now we look for areas of resistance that should hold any rally down.
The hedge remains in place and I am finishing up my buy list to put into effect once the
final leg down is over.
It appears that the first leg of the intermediate term decline is over.
Now we look for areas of resistance that should hold any rally down.
The hedge remains in place and I am finishing up my buy list to put into effect once the
final leg down is over.
First Leg Down Completed Today
Aggressive traders can look to trade off the low made today.
The ensuing counter trend move should be quite profitable.
Keep in mind that the ultimate low for this intermediate term decline
has yet to be put into place so this trade on the buy side remains very aggressive.
The ensuing counter trend move should be quite profitable.
Keep in mind that the ultimate low for this intermediate term decline
has yet to be put into place so this trade on the buy side remains very aggressive.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Equities Getting Squashed Overnight
Updated 07/31/07 10:42 PM
Contract
Last
Change
CME E-mini S&P 500®
1446.50
-1550
CME E-mini NASDAQ-100®
1929.75
-1600
Stocks are getting beaten up again on the GLOBEX.
Aggressive Traders can look to buy into the weakness in the A.M.
Of course all bets are off should it free-fall.
Thanks God For Hedges!
The Bear Market In Corn
Corn looks poised to move lower once again.
There is no question that corn is in a secular bear market, with the first leg not complete yet.
There is no question that corn is in a secular bear market, with the first leg not complete yet.
Educational Module #1.... Part II
Here is the next real time example of trading the Three White Soldiers pattern.
Real Time Pattern Example - ROCM
I continue to look for an entry into ROCM at the mid-point of the second candle in the pattern.
14 5/8 should be a good area to establish long positions, with a sell stop just below the most recent lows.
14 5/8 should be a good area to establish long positions, with a sell stop just below the most recent lows.
Equity Market Comment
Today was a fine example of why I would not try and capture any reflex rally that I thought was on its way.
The hedge remains in place until we reach at least the 50% level on the chart below.
Very Aggressive traders can take a long position if the market sells off early in the day. The odds of a snap back rally have increased dramatically with the price action today.
Remember that the ultimate low has yet to be put in place and any buying in this enviroment is a high risk proposition!
The hedge remains in place until we reach at least the 50% level on the chart below.
Very Aggressive traders can take a long position if the market sells off early in the day. The odds of a snap back rally have increased dramatically with the price action today.
Remember that the ultimate low has yet to be put in place and any buying in this enviroment is a high risk proposition!
Monday, July 30, 2007
The Return of the Greenback
The Commercial Traders in the dollar are pretty savvy investors as the blue line shows.
The green line are the commodity funds and they are extremely short while the
smart money is heavily long.
This combination coupled with everyone looking for a dollar collapse, should set the stage for
a dollar bottom and a substantial rally.
This outlook also supports my bearish outlook for gold.
The green line are the commodity funds and they are extremely short while the
smart money is heavily long.
This combination coupled with everyone looking for a dollar collapse, should set the stage for
a dollar bottom and a substantial rally.
This outlook also supports my bearish outlook for gold.
Educational Module #1 - Candlestick Patterns
I realize that I have not done an educational module in quite some time and it is time to get back on track with it. I am going to start completely over, so there may be some repetition for long time readers.
The first module is going to cover Candlestick patterns that are very reliable of which there are only 3. The first is the Three White Soldiers pattern as shown below. We will follow these pattern selections in real time and learn from them as they develop before our very eyes.
You can see from the chart, what it is that makes up the pattern. It is a multi day pattern (3 days) and is one of the most reliable, especially after an extensive decline.
The ideal purchase point for traders is the middle of the second candle of the pattern.
Position traders can begin their accumulation at the onset of the pattern with a 25% allocation of the full position you wish to carry.
The first module is going to cover Candlestick patterns that are very reliable of which there are only 3. The first is the Three White Soldiers pattern as shown below. We will follow these pattern selections in real time and learn from them as they develop before our very eyes.
You can see from the chart, what it is that makes up the pattern. It is a multi day pattern (3 days) and is one of the most reliable, especially after an extensive decline.
The ideal purchase point for traders is the middle of the second candle of the pattern.
Position traders can begin their accumulation at the onset of the pattern with a 25% allocation of the full position you wish to carry.
Long Term Equity Perspective
If this were to be a major top in the market, then we would see some major selling by
the smart money before the decline began. Remember the smart money is the blue line at the bottom of the chart. As you can see they are heavy buyers which translates into much higher
prices once this much needed decline is out of the way
Notice also that the Commodity Funds (Green Line) are heavily short.
This is the fuel needed to push the market higher and with these funds at the bottom
of the range it gives the market a bunch of fuel to rally once it gets back to it.
Clearly this chart is saying BUY on any weakness, PERIOD!!!
the smart money before the decline began. Remember the smart money is the blue line at the bottom of the chart. As you can see they are heavy buyers which translates into much higher
prices once this much needed decline is out of the way
Notice also that the Commodity Funds (Green Line) are heavily short.
This is the fuel needed to push the market higher and with these funds at the bottom
of the range it gives the market a bunch of fuel to rally once it gets back to it.
Clearly this chart is saying BUY on any weakness, PERIOD!!!
Lumber- Buy Half
Lumber is in the buy area.
Take 1/2 the position here and upon a ensuing rally place the second half of the position into the equation.
Take 1/2 the position here and upon a ensuing rally place the second half of the position into the equation.
USU - USEC Corp
Final downside target on USU is $14, but the first leg appears to be over.
If you are aggressive you can look to play the rally as it should be quite fruitful.
The major point here is that once the downside target of $14 is reached. the next move upwards is going to be very powerful. As a matter of fact, take a look at a chart of TNH and it will give you some guidance as to the potential!
If you are aggressive you can look to play the rally as it should be quite fruitful.
The major point here is that once the downside target of $14 is reached. the next move upwards is going to be very powerful. As a matter of fact, take a look at a chart of TNH and it will give you some guidance as to the potential!
Counter Trend Rally has Commenced
Counter rally looks to have begun.
Keep in mind that this decline is NOT over and the last leg down
should scare the daylights out of people unawares.
Don't be one of the unawares, take full advantage of the decline.
Keep in mind that this decline is NOT over and the last leg down
should scare the daylights out of people unawares.
Don't be one of the unawares, take full advantage of the decline.
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