Tuesday, September 18, 2007
ADD TO SHORT COTTON TRADE
NEW COMMODITY TRADES AND ADJUSTMENTS POSTED.
PLEASE CHECK THE OPEN AND CLOSED COMMODITY TRADES LISTING.
PLEASE CHECK THE OPEN AND CLOSED COMMODITY TRADES LISTING.
AGGRESSIVE EQUITY TRADES
NEW AGGRESSIVE STOCK PURCHASES TODAY WITH KB HOMES THE HIGHLIGHT.
CHECK THE OPEN EQUITY TRADES FOR THE NEW TRADES.
CHECK THE OPEN EQUITY TRADES FOR THE NEW TRADES.
Equity Market Comment - 09/18/2007
Although the market continues to move up, the underlying strength remains highly suspect.
I have yet to get sucked into this rally as all the internals continue to call for a constructive re-test of the lows. Even the internals today for such a large move were very weak.
Keep your powder dry however and do not get sucked into the short term euphoria.
I have yet to get sucked into this rally as all the internals continue to call for a constructive re-test of the lows. Even the internals today for such a large move were very weak.
Keep your powder dry however and do not get sucked into the short term euphoria.
Monday, September 17, 2007
SOYBEANS - On The Watch List For A Short Sale
A strong downside reversal on Tuesday will signal a trend shift in the Soybeans.
Look to go short on any substantial weakness.
Look to go short on any substantial weakness.
COCOA - Near Term Collapse Possible
Cocoa looks to be on the verge of a potential collapse.
On the next negative close, add to the existing short position.
On the next negative close, add to the existing short position.
ULTRA AGGRESSIVE PLAY
Here is a stock that has some serious potential to double and in short order.
Please keep in mind that this is a very aggressive play and a tight stop is necessary.
Actually a tight stop is necessary in any trade!
Please keep in mind that this is a very aggressive play and a tight stop is necessary.
Actually a tight stop is necessary in any trade!
Equity Market Comment - 09/17/2007
Had a productive trading day in the equity markets as we remain short from 1479 and 1480.
I continue to anticipate lower prices to close out the re-test.
Get prepared to enter your buy orders on the stocks that were posted under the Trend Analysis Mutual Fund Post of a few days ago.
I continue to anticipate lower prices to close out the re-test.
Get prepared to enter your buy orders on the stocks that were posted under the Trend Analysis Mutual Fund Post of a few days ago.
Increase Short Position - Ultra Short Term
We have about as close to a perfect set up here on the Ultra Short Term as you will get.
Increase the short position for a potential drubbing into the close.
Increase the short position for a potential drubbing into the close.
Saturday, September 15, 2007
U.S. Dollar - Looks Bullish Both Daily and Weekly
The dollar continues to look very appealing on the long side, both on the daily and weekly charts.
I am going to add yet another position to the U.S. Dollar Holdings right in this area here. We began to purchase dollars in the 80.65 area and this will be the second average down.
I certainly would not be doing this if I did not think the dollar is on the fringe of an explosive rally!!
I am going to add yet another position to the U.S. Dollar Holdings right in this area here. We began to purchase dollars in the 80.65 area and this will be the second average down.
I certainly would not be doing this if I did not think the dollar is on the fringe of an explosive rally!!
LUMBER - From The Watch List To Full Force Action
Lumber made quite an impressive showing in the last part of the week and I have been trying to get long, but have been unsuccessful as stops were triggered. I am not complaining about the stops mind you, they have been one of my best friends through the years.
With all of this in mind, I am going to give it another try on the long side as the technical and fundamental work continues to support higher prices.
We are long from 247.70 with a stop at 239.60.
With all of this in mind, I am going to give it another try on the long side as the technical and fundamental work continues to support higher prices.
We are long from 247.70 with a stop at 239.60.
Friday, September 14, 2007
Equity Market Comment - 09/14/2007
Stocks continue to mark time before the final re-test is put into place.
The action over the last week has simply not been constructive and continues to support one more push lower before the next intermediate term upleg can get started in earnest.
The action over the last week has simply not been constructive and continues to support one more push lower before the next intermediate term upleg can get started in earnest.
Terra Nitrogen - Stat Alert For an Entry Point
TNH has been quite the star and has responded very well to many of the technical ratios and cycles.
With this in mind, look to add to your position that was established at the $66 buy target on a pullback to $101 or $87.
The upside potential for TNH is simply incredible and those who rode the stock from $22 to $140 are in for an even better return on the next move higher!
Oh, did I mention the amazing Dividend Yield? Of course the payout is different every quarter, but it still offers some very nice icing on the cake!!
With this in mind, look to add to your position that was established at the $66 buy target on a pullback to $101 or $87.
The upside potential for TNH is simply incredible and those who rode the stock from $22 to $140 are in for an even better return on the next move higher!
Oh, did I mention the amazing Dividend Yield? Of course the payout is different every quarter, but it still offers some very nice icing on the cake!!
Thursday, September 13, 2007
GHL - Some Serious Upside Potential
GHL has some great Technical and Fundamental potential.
Upside targets are north of $130 and the stock has acted very nicely after bouncing from the 50% level.
No doubt in my mind that this little ditty is going into my account upon the completion of the re-test.
Upside targets are north of $130 and the stock has acted very nicely after bouncing from the 50% level.
No doubt in my mind that this little ditty is going into my account upon the completion of the re-test.
Equity Market Comment 09/13/07
Do not get hood-winked into this rally we are currently seeing in equity prices.
The work continues to suggest strongly that the complete re-test has not run the course and this rally we are having now is NOT the starting point of a new intermediate term move up.
The hourly chart gave a sell signal today and the work continues to call for lower prices in the 1412 to 1432 area on the S&P 500.
Aggressive Traders can look to purchase put options in here for a potential of 50 or more S&P points.
The work continues to suggest strongly that the complete re-test has not run the course and this rally we are having now is NOT the starting point of a new intermediate term move up.
The hourly chart gave a sell signal today and the work continues to call for lower prices in the 1412 to 1432 area on the S&P 500.
Aggressive Traders can look to purchase put options in here for a potential of 50 or more S&P points.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
TREND ANALYSIS MUTUAL FUND
In order to give you a head start I am posting the buy candidates for what will be titled the Trend Analysis Mutual Fund.
The mutual fund will be posted in the sidebar along with the appropriate statistics. I have laid this fund out to achieve aggressive returns while taking below average risk. It should out do the major averages handily.
The following are the stocks and each will be given an equal weighting from the start.
CPX, FMD, AXS, TCK, MEOH, PTEN, BJS, WPC, MTEX, ACAS, ARLP, CT, ASPV, PHLY, DB, UBS, JPM, BAC, TNH, ABR, PSP, PXN, PHO
Please keep in mind that these stocks have yet to be purchased, but as soon as they have been purchased I will then set up the sidebar on the blog to track the performance.
The mutual fund will be posted in the sidebar along with the appropriate statistics. I have laid this fund out to achieve aggressive returns while taking below average risk. It should out do the major averages handily.
The following are the stocks and each will be given an equal weighting from the start.
CPX, FMD, AXS, TCK, MEOH, PTEN, BJS, WPC, MTEX, ACAS, ARLP, CT, ASPV, PHLY, DB, UBS, JPM, BAC, TNH, ABR, PSP, PXN, PHO
Please keep in mind that these stocks have yet to be purchased, but as soon as they have been purchased I will then set up the sidebar on the blog to track the performance.
LUMBER - Stopped Out Today - Loss 17.3%
Stopped out of the long lumber position put into place yesterday.
Lumber remains on the watch list for re-entry on the long side.
Lumber remains on the watch list for re-entry on the long side.
Equity Market Comment 09/12/07
Nothing really new to report on the equity markets.
I continue to look for the completion of the re-test of the August 16th low, with the blue line supports on the chart as targets.
Once the market has this re-test out of the way then it can begin what I think will be a massive leg up. The 4th quarter of this year is setting up to be a humdinger!!
I will try and post the buy list tonight or tomorrow. It will be kept track of on the side bar under the title of Trend Analysis Mutual Fund.
I continue to look for the completion of the re-test of the August 16th low, with the blue line supports on the chart as targets.
Once the market has this re-test out of the way then it can begin what I think will be a massive leg up. The 4th quarter of this year is setting up to be a humdinger!!
I will try and post the buy list tonight or tomorrow. It will be kept track of on the side bar under the title of Trend Analysis Mutual Fund.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Gander Mountain - Testing The Limits
While Gander Mountain has tested my patience to say the least, it reached a low risk buying area today.
I continue to believe that patience with the stock will be greatly rewarded and an average down in the stock would be a strong option.
I continue to believe that patience with the stock will be greatly rewarded and an average down in the stock would be a strong option.
AGL - BUY ALERT 09/11/07
AGL has some serious upside potential as it has lost all of the downside momentum it had garnered since the double top.
The fundamentals are also improving and the combination of this and a strong technical position should prove very beneficial to the stock.
The fundamentals are also improving and the combination of this and a strong technical position should prove very beneficial to the stock.
Equity Market Comment 09/11/07
While this last leg down in the equity markets has taken a longer path than I had anticipated, I still remain firm in my view that there will be one more push lower before the next major leg up will begin.
The target of 1409-1412 on the S&P 500 comes up again and again in my work on all different time frames, so keep a close eye on this level.
The word for now remain CAUTION!
The target of 1409-1412 on the S&P 500 comes up again and again in my work on all different time frames, so keep a close eye on this level.
The word for now remain CAUTION!
Monday, September 10, 2007
Caution on Notes and Bonds
The very strong move we have seen in the fixed income market may be coming to an end on an intermediate term basis.
This is NOT to say that the bull market is over, but with the hefty move in prices and the profit therein, it would be wise to exercise caution in here and take some if not most of the chips off the table.
This is NOT to say that the bull market is over, but with the hefty move in prices and the profit therein, it would be wise to exercise caution in here and take some if not most of the chips off the table.
NEW COMMODITY TRADES AND WATCH LIST UPDATES
Average down the Long Dollar Position as a potential panic selling climax may have occurred today.***************************************************************************
See Sidebar for most recent trade action.
Long October Hogs at the close today.
Long October Hogs at the close today.
Equity Market Comment 09/10/07
We continue to look for the re-test of the lows to terminate on Tuesday or Wednsday of this week with the 1412 level coming up quite frequently in the work.
Get ready to make your purchases.
Get ready to make your purchases.
LOW RISK SHORT AREA - ULTRA SHORT TERM
Seeing as Mondays time frame for a low passed without event, the probabilities of further decline remain high.
We have a good area to short the market with a tight stop of course.
We have a good area to short the market with a tight stop of course.
Sunday, September 9, 2007
WHY THE PERMA BEARS WILL BE WRONG AGAIN
With all the talk of the 1987 all over again and the perma bears coming out of the woodwork preaching their doom and gloom of the most recent mortgage problems, I thought it fitting to show some very strong evidence as to why we will NOT go into a bear market and quite the contrary should have a great rally.
The chart below is of the Commercial Traders (Blue Line) and you can clearly see they are very heavy buyers and have been very heavy buyers. This is the smart money that is in the know months before anything hits the press and the public reacts. You can bet your bottom dollar if they thought this problem would snowball into a potential financial collapse then they would not be such heavy buyers.
The action of the Commercial Traders is very bullish for equities.
The Green Line below is the Commodity Fund Traders who typically ride the major trend until its extinction. The Fund Traders are wrong about 90% of the time at major turning points in the markets. As you can see, they have been very strong sellers, which is also very bullish for stocks.
The combination of the Commercials being such heavy purchasers of equities and the Fund Traders being such heavy sellers points to one inescapable fact. Equities will not enter into a bear market and should over the next 12-18 months have an incredible run in prices.
The chart below is of the Commercial Traders (Blue Line) and you can clearly see they are very heavy buyers and have been very heavy buyers. This is the smart money that is in the know months before anything hits the press and the public reacts. You can bet your bottom dollar if they thought this problem would snowball into a potential financial collapse then they would not be such heavy buyers.
The action of the Commercial Traders is very bullish for equities.
The Green Line below is the Commodity Fund Traders who typically ride the major trend until its extinction. The Fund Traders are wrong about 90% of the time at major turning points in the markets. As you can see, they have been very strong sellers, which is also very bullish for stocks.
The combination of the Commercials being such heavy purchasers of equities and the Fund Traders being such heavy sellers points to one inescapable fact. Equities will not enter into a bear market and should over the next 12-18 months have an incredible run in prices.
NEW FEAR INDEX
The chart below tells the story of the fear index.
The Red Line is the S&P 500 and the black line is the fear index, which is nothing
more than a measure of investors flocking into the safety of Fixed Government
Securities.
When we see the flocking into government securities as equity prices are in a potential free fall, the fear index will move to a level showing the outright bearishness of market participants.
The fear index currently tells us that we had a climax bottom on August 16th.
This also confirms the outlook for a final re-test which we are nearing the end of right now.
The Red Line is the S&P 500 and the black line is the fear index, which is nothing
more than a measure of investors flocking into the safety of Fixed Government
Securities.
When we see the flocking into government securities as equity prices are in a potential free fall, the fear index will move to a level showing the outright bearishness of market participants.
The fear index currently tells us that we had a climax bottom on August 16th.
This also confirms the outlook for a final re-test which we are nearing the end of right now.
Friday, September 7, 2007
Ultra Short Term Work Calls For More Decline 09/07/07
The 50% retrace of the ultra short term trend today continues to call for lower prices probably right from the get go Monday Morning.
Remember, use this weakness to cover the rest of your hedge and purchase good quality stocks and options as the next move to the upside should be a great one!
Remember, use this weakness to cover the rest of your hedge and purchase good quality stocks and options as the next move to the upside should be a great one!
Thursday, September 6, 2007
NEW COMMODITY ALLOCATIONS 9/6/2007
See commodity outlook sidebar for latest commodity trades and updates.
Equity Market Comment 09/06/2007
The S&P 500 rallied to the 1480 level and retreated, so it appears that the ultra short term counter rally is complete.
From here the market should complete the retest with downside targets of:
1451
1432
1412
The most logical being 1432 and 1412.
Look back to Tuesdays post for the potential bottoming dates.
From here the market should complete the retest with downside targets of:
1451
1432
1412
The most logical being 1432 and 1412.
Look back to Tuesdays post for the potential bottoming dates.
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
New Commodity Transactions & Aggressive Equity Trades 09/05/2007
Check the sidebar for the selling of the long in cotton and a reverse short.
Check the new equity recommendation.
Check the new equity recommendation.
USEC Corp. - BUY Initial Position
USU is starting to look like it has put in its low.
Begin to purchase the stock or stock options now, with a 1/3 allocation to your full line.
Begin to purchase the stock or stock options now, with a 1/3 allocation to your full line.
Equity Market Comment - 09/05/2007
The first leg down of the decline to test the lows looks to have been put into place.
From here I would expect a rally to the 1480 area on the S&P 500. It may not happen right away, but if the market does rally to this level and then rolls over it will be an indication that the final leg of the re-test is getting under way.
I realize that there are quite a few resistance levels on the chart below, but don't let that confuse you. The main area that deserves attention is the 1480 area.
From here I would expect a rally to the 1480 area on the S&P 500. It may not happen right away, but if the market does rally to this level and then rolls over it will be an indication that the final leg of the re-test is getting under way.
I realize that there are quite a few resistance levels on the chart below, but don't let that confuse you. The main area that deserves attention is the 1480 area.
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Don't Get Pulled Into This Near Term Strength!
NEW TARGET TIMES FOR CORRECTIVE LOW -
Mon. 9/10/07 10:30 am
Tues 9/11/07 12:00 pm
Weds. 9/12/07 1:00 pm
While I would certainly like to see the times on these days prove to be correct, the nuts and bolts of the work is based on the dates. The actual times are just gravy, so please do not get the impression that I am trying to pinpoint this to the exact second.
Mon. 9/10/07 10:30 am
Tues 9/11/07 12:00 pm
Weds. 9/12/07 1:00 pm
While I would certainly like to see the times on these days prove to be correct, the nuts and bolts of the work is based on the dates. The actual times are just gravy, so please do not get the impression that I am trying to pinpoint this to the exact second.
Monday, September 3, 2007
Equity Comment 09/03/2007
There is alot of information on tonights chart of the DOW, so make sure your print it out for reference.
In a nutshell:
1. Look for the market to correct here and begin to cover your remaining hedged positions.
I do not think the correction will be very deep, but anything is possible. Aggressive traders can look to go short in here. We went short on Friday.
2. The market made an impulse move off the lows, so this decline should be nothing more than a corrective wave and the major intermediate term low should be in place.
3. If the most recent lows are taken out, I will get downright bearish and continue to apply my hedge. However, the data that we are getting from the commercial traders does not point to a time for any type of bear market, not to mention that the camp of here goes 1987 all over again is growing in size. It may have some similarities time and price wise, but the mother of all indicators....THE COMMERCIAL TRADERS NET INDEX is nowhere close to where it was in 1987. In 1987, the big boys were selling strongly in both July and August! Just the opposite holds true today. They have been very strong buyers and they make the big money so it would be silly to bet against their positions.
In a nutshell:
1. Look for the market to correct here and begin to cover your remaining hedged positions.
I do not think the correction will be very deep, but anything is possible. Aggressive traders can look to go short in here. We went short on Friday.
2. The market made an impulse move off the lows, so this decline should be nothing more than a corrective wave and the major intermediate term low should be in place.
3. If the most recent lows are taken out, I will get downright bearish and continue to apply my hedge. However, the data that we are getting from the commercial traders does not point to a time for any type of bear market, not to mention that the camp of here goes 1987 all over again is growing in size. It may have some similarities time and price wise, but the mother of all indicators....THE COMMERCIAL TRADERS NET INDEX is nowhere close to where it was in 1987. In 1987, the big boys were selling strongly in both July and August! Just the opposite holds true today. They have been very strong buyers and they make the big money so it would be silly to bet against their positions.
Friday, August 31, 2007
PIVOT POINT AUTO TRADER
There is going to be a new addition to the blog and it will be a completely automatic trading program based on Pivot Points.
Everything will be completely Black and White and will leave no room for second guessing.
The program will be based on aggressive trading principles, so please utilize only trading resources allocated for this purpose.
If you have any particular stocks that you might like put into the program just drop me a line and I will see what I can do. The candidates for the program must be stocks of an active nature and sell above $5.
Everything will be completely Black and White and will leave no room for second guessing.
The program will be based on aggressive trading principles, so please utilize only trading resources allocated for this purpose.
If you have any particular stocks that you might like put into the program just drop me a line and I will see what I can do. The candidates for the program must be stocks of an active nature and sell above $5.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Equity Market Comment - 08/30/2007
I continue to look for the market to move lower in the process of a re-test of the lows.
There does remain upside potential to 1484-1486 before the decline gathers steam.
If the S&P 500 gets to these levels, it will be a low risk shorting opportunity.
The Downside target of 1414 to 1412 has come up through numerous calculations so there is some confluence amongst targets.
There does remain upside potential to 1484-1486 before the decline gathers steam.
If the S&P 500 gets to these levels, it will be a low risk shorting opportunity.
The Downside target of 1414 to 1412 has come up through numerous calculations so there is some confluence amongst targets.
New Commodity Recommendations
New Commodity Recommendations Are Listed On The Sidebar Today.
There Are Some Great Opportunities.
There Are Some Great Opportunities.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
SHORT OCT Crude
Crude Oil is in an area that a low risk short can be put in place.
Keep the stop tight.
Keep the stop tight.
Corus Bankshares - Incredible Value Long Term
CORS is also on the buy list for new purchases once the re-test is complete and the all clear is given.
Take a look at how well run this bank is and the extreme undervalued nature of the stock price.
While the sector has had its share of challenges recently, the stock should give an incredible return over the long term. This is all without even mentioning the almost 7% yield on the dividend.
Take a look at how well run this bank is and the extreme undervalued nature of the stock price.
While the sector has had its share of challenges recently, the stock should give an incredible return over the long term. This is all without even mentioning the almost 7% yield on the dividend.
Dean Foods - Buy Candadite
Since the sell signal that we got on Dean Foods the stock has been in an ongoing decline.
It is starting to look attractive in this area and has also made the cut in our fundamental screening as well.
With this in mind Dean Foods is going on the buy list once the dust settles on this re-test.
It is starting to look attractive in this area and has also made the cut in our fundamental screening as well.
With this in mind Dean Foods is going on the buy list once the dust settles on this re-test.
08/29/07 Equity Comment
The markets certainly seem to be coming together as anticipated, although at a faster clip then I had expected.
In one day the S&P 500 reached its upside target, a feat that I had thought would take 2 or 3 days at the minimum.
The scenario now calls for one more push lower to complete the re-test of the S&P 500 lows at 1370. I am looking for 1412 on the S&P 500 for the final re-test target level. It will be at this point that all of my hedges will be covered and more equity purchases will be on the fore.
These market movements have occurred so quickly that I have yet to post the buy list, but I will try and get around to it over the next couple of days if not the holiday weekend.
In one day the S&P 500 reached its upside target, a feat that I had thought would take 2 or 3 days at the minimum.
The scenario now calls for one more push lower to complete the re-test of the S&P 500 lows at 1370. I am looking for 1412 on the S&P 500 for the final re-test target level. It will be at this point that all of my hedges will be covered and more equity purchases will be on the fore.
These market movements have occurred so quickly that I have yet to post the buy list, but I will try and get around to it over the next couple of days if not the holiday weekend.
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