Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Gander Mountain is Ready To Run!!
Gander Mountain looks about ready to launch its final assault upwards to the $22-$24 price range. Keep a close stop just below the most recent lows and only on a closing basis.
Wild Swings Tell A Story
The most recent price action over the last 10 days or so says much about the current state of affairs in the equity markets.
It is indicative of these markets to have wild swings in a trend change process and that is exactly what is taking place now.
I remain 100% hedged against a decline and it certainly is not to late to establish a hedge as there remains a possibility of a 15% decline.
It is indicative of these markets to have wild swings in a trend change process and that is exactly what is taking place now.
I remain 100% hedged against a decline and it certainly is not to late to establish a hedge as there remains a possibility of a 15% decline.
Commodity Based Stocks
I had posted before about the commodity based stocks, especially the steels and how they are very prone to a sharp decline.
I thought it only fitting to repeat the warning as even though they have declined some, they still have a long ways to go.
I thought it only fitting to repeat the warning as even though they have declined some, they still have a long ways to go.
Sunday, June 24, 2007
Sugar - Finally an Early Bull Market Taking Form
Patience at most times is our greatest weapon.
Sugar has been no exception!
Potential Huge Rally in the Offing so begin to establish a line on any price weakness!
Sugar has been no exception!
Potential Huge Rally in the Offing so begin to establish a line on any price weakness!
Intermediate Term Weakness/Long Term Undervalued
Although on an Intermediate Term basis, equities have begun a state of consolidation and decline (perhaps 10%), the weekly chart below shows why long term investors need to remain Ultra Bullish.
Notice that even though most equity indexes are very near their all time highs, the commercial traders (blue line) remain heavy heavy purchasers of stocks.
So when this correction has run its course, all I can say is LOAD UP on quality equities and if you are aggressive, put together a LEAPS portfolio.
Notice that even though most equity indexes are very near their all time highs, the commercial traders (blue line) remain heavy heavy purchasers of stocks.
So when this correction has run its course, all I can say is LOAD UP on quality equities and if you are aggressive, put together a LEAPS portfolio.
When The Commercials Speak We HAVE TO LISTEN!
The Grains have reached a pivotal Technical point on the weekly chart and should prove to work sharply lower.
It appears that the all out second leg and collapse of grain prices is upon us.
The commercial traders remain steadfastly bearish and the big boys continue to forecast lower grain prices. LISTEN TO THE PEOPLE WHO KNOW!!
It appears that the all out second leg and collapse of grain prices is upon us.
The commercial traders remain steadfastly bearish and the big boys continue to forecast lower grain prices. LISTEN TO THE PEOPLE WHO KNOW!!
Steer Clear of Crude, Unless You SELL IT SHORT!!
Crude Oil, while frustrating at times, continues to show strong evidence of remaining in its bear market phase. It is safe to say that $80 was the secular bull market peak and currently crude is very close to starting its next bear market leg down.
Notice on the commercial data that the big boys have been heavy sellers and the not so sharp money has been buying up all the crude they can in order to get in on $100 crude prices that will NEVER come.
This market is doomed and will catch the vast majority off guard when it finally collapses.
Notice on the commercial data that the big boys have been heavy sellers and the not so sharp money has been buying up all the crude they can in order to get in on $100 crude prices that will NEVER come.
This market is doomed and will catch the vast majority off guard when it finally collapses.
Thursday, June 21, 2007
Get Ready To Pounce!
Lumber has proven to me that it has reversed its long term trend down and has begun a new uptrend.
The price should continue to pullback short term, but look to buy in the 258-266.5 area.
The price should continue to pullback short term, but look to buy in the 258-266.5 area.
When Will Crude Finally Break Matt, You Moron!!
I know, I know!
Crude Oil just keeps hanging on in price and seems to refuse to regress back to the mean!
Take heart, as all good things come to an end and the longer crude refuses to answer the call of the underlying fundamentals, then the harder the price will get hit when the wrath is bestowed upon it.
Long term I still look for $35 to$40 Crude.
Crude Oil just keeps hanging on in price and seems to refuse to regress back to the mean!
Take heart, as all good things come to an end and the longer crude refuses to answer the call of the underlying fundamentals, then the harder the price will get hit when the wrath is bestowed upon it.
Long term I still look for $35 to$40 Crude.
The Second Collapse in Corn Prices
If you missed the first leg down of the bear market in corn, here is another chance to jump on board for the second leg down.
This move down should be quite dynamic and could offer exponentially better profits than the first!
This move down should be quite dynamic and could offer exponentially better profits than the first!
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
FDG - Lighten The Load
Fording Coal has done very well for us, with a move from $22 to currently $31 or 41% in about 4 months.
It is time to perhaps scale back on the position as it shows signs of weakness and could move down to the $25 area.
If in fact it does move to the $25 area and shows signs of stabilizing, it will be time to get back into the stock. Long Term, FDG continues to have some real promise!!
As of now however I would be quite cautious.
It is time to perhaps scale back on the position as it shows signs of weakness and could move down to the $25 area.
If in fact it does move to the $25 area and shows signs of stabilizing, it will be time to get back into the stock. Long Term, FDG continues to have some real promise!!
As of now however I would be quite cautious.
Equities Continue to Tread Water
There still remains little doubt in my mind that the next major move in the equity markets will be down. The hedge we put in place should remain in place.
It is important to remember also that the down move that is on its way will be nothing more than a correction in an ongoing bull market. The long term indicators are still very bullish!!
As this market continues to chop around and go nowhere, the possibility of a mini crash. Look for a correction of at least 10% in the near future.
It is important to remember also that the down move that is on its way will be nothing more than a correction in an ongoing bull market. The long term indicators are still very bullish!!
As this market continues to chop around and go nowhere, the possibility of a mini crash. Look for a correction of at least 10% in the near future.
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
10 Year Note Looks to Have Bottomed
There is no doubt that the 10 year note broke in the opposite direction of which I had expected, but now there are clear strong indications that this market should have a healthy rally.
Take notice once more in the Blue Line at the bottom, which as we know represents the smart money. This Blue Line at the high for its range shows that the smart money is snapping up the 10 year note as fast as they are offered.
Look to go long!
Take notice once more in the Blue Line at the bottom, which as we know represents the smart money. This Blue Line at the high for its range shows that the smart money is snapping up the 10 year note as fast as they are offered.
Look to go long!
USEC Corp - Near A Buying Point
Aggressive traders can look to get back into USU as most of the downside targets have been met. More conservative investors will need a bit more proof before removing their bearish hedge and reestablishing their long positions.
The Equity Markets Continue to Top Out
While today was quite an impressive rally in terms of points, the condition of the market remains the same. Equities continue to put a major top into place and thus volatility will continue to be predominant.
It is important to remember that the longer equities chop around and do not break lower, the harder, steeper and faster the decline will be once stock prices do finally break!
Keep the Bearish Hedge in place and DO NOT GET SUCKERED INTO THE MARKET AT THIS POINT IN TIME!
It is important to remember that the longer equities chop around and do not break lower, the harder, steeper and faster the decline will be once stock prices do finally break!
Keep the Bearish Hedge in place and DO NOT GET SUCKERED INTO THE MARKET AT THIS POINT IN TIME!
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Doomed Grains
The grains complex looks about ready to go through another collapse in prices.
Short Positions with a Tight Stop of 4.10 would be prudent.
The potential decline could be huge!
Short Positions with a Tight Stop of 4.10 would be prudent.
The potential decline could be huge!
Monday, June 11, 2007
Excellent Real Time Example
The current stock market action is an excellent example of a market putting in a high of some significance.
The telling signs are the wide spread swings that have occured over the last 2 weeks. The action today also was a clear indication of a trend shift in equity prices. The market opened weaker and moved considerably lower, only to stabilize and rally in a sizable fashion. The icing on the cake was the late day selling that brought the market negative once again.
This type of action is indicative of a shift out of the strong hands and into the weak hands. The average Joe has become so accustomed to the market snapping back after a brief pause that they are jumping back in with both feet only to have the smart money sell them their positions.
Although I do not anticipate this decline to be the start of a bear market, it does present enough risk to warrant a hedged equity position.
The equity market may chop around over the course of the next week, but the summer as a whole is not going to be pleasant for stock investors.
The telling signs are the wide spread swings that have occured over the last 2 weeks. The action today also was a clear indication of a trend shift in equity prices. The market opened weaker and moved considerably lower, only to stabilize and rally in a sizable fashion. The icing on the cake was the late day selling that brought the market negative once again.
This type of action is indicative of a shift out of the strong hands and into the weak hands. The average Joe has become so accustomed to the market snapping back after a brief pause that they are jumping back in with both feet only to have the smart money sell them their positions.
Although I do not anticipate this decline to be the start of a bear market, it does present enough risk to warrant a hedged equity position.
The equity market may chop around over the course of the next week, but the summer as a whole is not going to be pleasant for stock investors.
Wednesday, June 6, 2007
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
WHI - Still Looking Good
I am posting WHI again as there are certain stocks that just stand out as Long Term Winners.
These stocks could easily be 7-10 Baggers and WHI is one of them.
While I do anticipate some type of intermediate term correction, WHI will be a prime purchase after the decline has run its course.
Put it on you to do list!!
These stocks could easily be 7-10 Baggers and WHI is one of them.
While I do anticipate some type of intermediate term correction, WHI will be a prime purchase after the decline has run its course.
Put it on you to do list!!
Equity Markets are Very Weak
I just wanted to emphasize once again the intermediate term position of the equity markets.
They continue to be very weak and have gone nowhere since the time model sell signal.
Keep in mind that the longer this market chops around and goes nowhere, the harder the decline will be when it comes about.
I look for the Chinese Stock Market to be the catalyst of our decline.
Remain Defensive!!
They continue to be very weak and have gone nowhere since the time model sell signal.
Keep in mind that the longer this market chops around and goes nowhere, the harder the decline will be when it comes about.
I look for the Chinese Stock Market to be the catalyst of our decline.
Remain Defensive!!
Monday, May 28, 2007
White Mountain - Love at First Sight
White Mountain is gathering some steam and a break above $580 should send it sharply higher.
Once again, White Mountain is going to be the next Berkshire Hathaway so get on board!!
Once again, White Mountain is going to be the next Berkshire Hathaway so get on board!!
Gander Mountain - Resume the Rally
Gander Mountain looks poised to make its run to the $22 area, so if you did not get on board at the $5 area, here is yet another chance.
Equity Markets Continue to Flash Danger
I thought it fitting to post the sentiment once again as equities wave the Caution Flag!
Since the Time Models Sell Signal on May 8th, the market has gone nowhere and is actually down a bit.
There are multiple negative divergences across the board!
The Hedge remains in place and the Time Model Calls for a Low on August 24, so it could prove
to be a difficult and stagnet summer.
Monday, May 21, 2007
IndyMac Makes Another Run at a Break-out!
IndyMac appears to be trying for another break out of its consolidation zone.
Keep an Eye on it. Long Term it simply has incredible potential!
Keep an Eye on it. Long Term it simply has incredible potential!
Equity Market Remain at Risk
Still no change in the condition of the equity markets.
They remain very vulnerable to a decline on an intermediate term basis.
Remain 100% Hedged to protect against a potential 10% decline in the indexes.
Long Term I remain a steadfast bull!!
They remain very vulnerable to a decline on an intermediate term basis.
Remain 100% Hedged to protect against a potential 10% decline in the indexes.
Long Term I remain a steadfast bull!!
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Sugar - Still No Green Light
Sugar remains on the watch list for a potential buy. However it has its work cut out for it to even move into a slight buy signal. The sentiment is decidedly bearish and this will come into play once a turnaround in prices occurs. The more bearish sentiment there is in the market, the stronger and larger the ensuing rally will be.
Cocoa - A Safe Short
Cocoa is still in a very vunerable position and is a safe short at current levels.
The possability of a crash in cocoa prices remains a very strong possability.
The possability of a crash in cocoa prices remains a very strong possability.
Look For The Short End of the Yield Curve to Rally Stronger than the 10 or 30
The Inverted Yield curve that we lived with for over a year, reversed its course a while ago and now remains flat. Look for this spread to widen yet more as Short Term rates move lower much quicker than the 10 year or 30 year.
The Intermediate Term trend for Interest Rates across the board is Lower.
The Intermediate Term trend for Interest Rates across the board is Lower.
Demise of Crude - What is the Deal with Unleaded Gasoline???
Crude should continue to work itself lower over the intermediate and long term. On the Daily chart, it continues to work off the Triple Top and Bar the very short term rally, the price of crude seems to be destin for lower prices!
The anomaly of lower crude prices to higher gasoline prices continues, but I do not think for long. Once crude begins to decline once more then look for gasoline to really collapse in price.
The anomaly of lower crude prices to higher gasoline prices continues, but I do not think for long. Once crude begins to decline once more then look for gasoline to really collapse in price.
Corn
Corn looks poised to finish its counter trend rally into the 408 area.
From there we should look for the grains to begin yet another leg down.
CORN IS IN A BEAR MARKET
From there we should look for the grains to begin yet another leg down.
CORN IS IN A BEAR MARKET
Equity - Intermediate Term Bearish - Long Term Ultra Bullish
I wanted to quickly put things into perspective here as I have been talking quite bearish over the last couple of weeks.
On the Intermediate Term there simply is no doubt that the equity markets are in trouble and a decline is definitely brewing. This is exactly why I have hedged my stock positions.
However, for Long Term Investors this decline will offer a chance to put to use any cash that might be laying around and buy good quality stocks.
I am Ultra Bullish on the Long Term and there are several reasons, but one of the major reasons is characterized in the chart below.
As you know, the most prudent thing we can do and especially in the equity markets, is to follow in the foot steps of the commercial money and do the complete opposite of the average Joe or small speculator.
The chart below shows the red line (Average Joe) at its most bearish in years. Small speculators are very nervous and this bodes very well for the long term vitality of the stock market.
Even more impressive is the Blue Line (Commercial Traders) or the smart money. The Smart Money is Currently more bullish than they were at the March 2003 Secular Low! As a matter of fact, they are the most bullish they have been in over 10 Years!! This in a market that has had quite a rally already.
So it is very plain to see that on the Intermediate Term, Caution is warranted. However on a Long Term Basis, Stocks remain Historically cheap and the Big Boys know it. This market Long Term has the potential to double over the next 18 months!! WOW!! People have been waiting for the time when our domestic markets would start to perform as well as some of the foreign markets and it looks like over the next 2-3 years, that time will be here!
On the Intermediate Term there simply is no doubt that the equity markets are in trouble and a decline is definitely brewing. This is exactly why I have hedged my stock positions.
However, for Long Term Investors this decline will offer a chance to put to use any cash that might be laying around and buy good quality stocks.
I am Ultra Bullish on the Long Term and there are several reasons, but one of the major reasons is characterized in the chart below.
As you know, the most prudent thing we can do and especially in the equity markets, is to follow in the foot steps of the commercial money and do the complete opposite of the average Joe or small speculator.
The chart below shows the red line (Average Joe) at its most bearish in years. Small speculators are very nervous and this bodes very well for the long term vitality of the stock market.
Even more impressive is the Blue Line (Commercial Traders) or the smart money. The Smart Money is Currently more bullish than they were at the March 2003 Secular Low! As a matter of fact, they are the most bullish they have been in over 10 Years!! This in a market that has had quite a rally already.
So it is very plain to see that on the Intermediate Term, Caution is warranted. However on a Long Term Basis, Stocks remain Historically cheap and the Big Boys know it. This market Long Term has the potential to double over the next 18 months!! WOW!! People have been waiting for the time when our domestic markets would start to perform as well as some of the foreign markets and it looks like over the next 2-3 years, that time will be here!
Monday, May 14, 2007
Equity Markets
The equity markets continue to flash very negative indications of direction.
I am 100% hedged as the market looks like it could take a pretty nasty tumble.
I do remain Long Term Bullish however. It just seems like the hedge is the prudent course of action here. I even exchanged out of my equity mutual fund holdings!
I am 100% hedged as the market looks like it could take a pretty nasty tumble.
I do remain Long Term Bullish however. It just seems like the hedge is the prudent course of action here. I even exchanged out of my equity mutual fund holdings!
FORD STOCK
A very nice move in Ford stock today, but it appears that intermediate term wise, the stock
has reached its peak ability to rally.
We have a very nice 18% in 2 1/2 months on the stock and it would be wise to decrease your allocation to the stock if not get 100% out of Ford.
has reached its peak ability to rally.
We have a very nice 18% in 2 1/2 months on the stock and it would be wise to decrease your allocation to the stock if not get 100% out of Ford.
New Posting Policy
It seems that daily posts are starting to get a little redundant.
Therefore I am only going to post as the market warrants.
I will continue to update the short term trading model each day as well
as the quick glance Trends.
Day to Day comments on the market however will be cut back to only
as needed. I do hope this does not pose a problem for anybody!
Therefore I am only going to post as the market warrants.
I will continue to update the short term trading model each day as well
as the quick glance Trends.
Day to Day comments on the market however will be cut back to only
as needed. I do hope this does not pose a problem for anybody!
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Commodity Watch
Cotton continues to look bullish.
No question that Gold is looking very weak!!
Appears to be trying to stabilize in here. Could very possibly be nothing more than a rest before the decline resumes!
Intermediate and Long Term Trends have both shifted to DOWN!!
Corn took out the lows today and also closed below the 200 day moving average. 
No question that Gold is looking very weak!!Downside is a real risk here.
Appears to be trying to stabilize in here. Could very possibly be nothing more than a rest before the decline resumes!Intermediate and Long Term Trends have both shifted to DOWN!!
Corn took out the lows today and also closed below the 200 day moving average. Both of these could really cause the price to accelerate to the downside.
STOCK WATCH
Commodity based stocks could be in trouble here, long term!!
CSV has some excellent upside possibilities!
Gander Mountain looks like it needs a rest after quite an impressive move. There still is quite a bit of push left in the stock!
Very Nice Sell Signal on Dean Foods.
Might be time to look for a Bottom.
CSV has some excellent upside possibilities!
Equity Market Comment - HEDGE YOURSELF!
It appears that the equity markets have finally entered into a corrective pattern and quite honestly with all of the negative divergences it could be quite nasty.
I have a Hedge in place and will keep it there until the picture becomes clearer about if this will be just a correction of the rally off the March Lows or if this will be a correction of a larger magnitude.
Myself, I think with the Yearly Model calling for the High to come into place on May 8th and the model clearly remains down until late August, it seems to indicate that we are going into a prolonged corrective pattern. However, I will let the market tell its story and simply follow what it is telling me.
I have a Hedge in place and will keep it there until the picture becomes clearer about if this will be just a correction of the rally off the March Lows or if this will be a correction of a larger magnitude.
Myself, I think with the Yearly Model calling for the High to come into place on May 8th and the model clearly remains down until late August, it seems to indicate that we are going into a prolonged corrective pattern. However, I will let the market tell its story and simply follow what it is telling me.
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
Crude Oil and Unleaded Gasoline Futures
The Petrol Complex could get very ugly to the downside pretty soon. I have sold off all of my oil and gas related stocks except for a couple of very strong utilities that I have owned for over a decade.
IndyMac Bank
Much like Corus Bankshares, IndyMac offers a tremendous value at current levels and a very nice dividend also.
The stock short term also has a short squeeze opportunity and could rally sharply as the shorts are forced to buy back in!
The stock short term also has a short squeeze opportunity and could rally sharply as the shorts are forced to buy back in!
Corus Bankshares
There simply is no doubt about the fact that at these price levels, Corus offers one of the best values on Wall Street today!!
Abercrombie & Fitch - Update
We had talked about Abercrombie a couple of weeks ago and I was discussing how negative the stock is looking. It bears repeating here as nothing has changed and a definite hedge should be put in place on this stock as the correction could be 30% or more and why should we give up so much of our gains when their are strategies to help us to avoid such pitfalls.
10 Year Note
No change here either, as the 10 year note continues to look like it wants to rally.
Although there was quite a sell-off in the note on the FED decision, the intermediate term continues to call for higher prices and lower yields.
Although there was quite a sell-off in the note on the FED decision, the intermediate term continues to call for higher prices and lower yields.
Equity Market Overview
No real change on the Condition of Stocks.
On an intermediate term basis they remain overbought and over-valued.
To keep this market healthy Long Term, an Intermediate term Correction would be just what the doctor ordered. A correction of 7-10% would be ideal.
On an intermediate term basis they remain overbought and over-valued.
To keep this market healthy Long Term, an Intermediate term Correction would be just what the doctor ordered. A correction of 7-10% would be ideal.
Tuesday, May 8, 2007
Gander Mountain
Gander Mountain continues to rally strongly off the W bottom it made. It has since, satisfied the first upside target at $16, but with all the shares that remain sold short there is plenty of fuel for the stock to continue its rally!!
10 Year Note Yield
Rates continue to look like they will work lower for a while here.
I continue to look for the rates on the 10 year note to take out their most recent lows and perhaps then some.
I continue to look for the rates on the 10 year note to take out their most recent lows and perhaps then some.
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