Saturday, March 24, 2007

Ethanol Craze Has Finally Put Corn in a Dangerous Position

The ethanol craze has finally played its hand on the price of corn. Of course the vast majority of the public thinks that corn prices will go higher yet, but the technical picture tells a different story.

The Almighty C.O.T. index has given a full blown sell signal on corn futures, with the Commercial Traders(the ones we want to watch) starting to unwind their massive short position. They are telling us that corn prices are going to move lower and to sell any strength.

I know I have the chart a little clustered up, but the blue line represents the commercial traders. As you can see the commercials were heavy sellers on the last blow off ethanol rally.
Since that time the blue line has turned up above the 10% area for the buy signal.

I plan on making a post on the power of the C.O.T. index in your analysis not just for the futures markets, but the equity markets as well.

You can access these charts as well as a custom C.O.T. index at
http://www.timingcharts.com/
I have a link on my blog. It is a great site for both analysis and education. I encourage you to take a look at the site and I also strongly encourage you to study the Commitment of Traders data.



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