I will be purchasing them Monday morning, providing the proper environment exists.
When you see them listed in the trading account on the blog, I will use the days closing price for reference and not the actual fill prices.
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Three Strong Aggressive Picks
The three stocks below will all be going into the Aggressive Stock Trading Account.
I will be purchasing them Monday morning, providing the proper environment exists.
When you see them listed in the trading account on the blog, I will use the days closing price for reference and not the actual fill prices.
I will be purchasing them Monday morning, providing the proper environment exists.
When you see them listed in the trading account on the blog, I will use the days closing price for reference and not the actual fill prices.
Weekend Equity Market Comment - 11/10/2007
The probability model missed on the outcome of Friday, but I will give it the benefit of the doubt considering how incredibly accurate it has been over the last 60 days. I don't want to jinx the model, but it seems like the tune up I gave it really brought consistency to its abilities.
The model is giving very strong readings to this decline being just about over. As a matter of fact it calls for a low to be put into place Monday in the early morning at the 1444-1447 area on the Cash S&P 500 so watch that level very carefully. If you want to get micro about it, the model calls for a flat to higher open followed by one more push lower, with the low coming in from 10:00 to 11:00 and then clear sailing up with a close from 12-22 points higher. Now I realize that this is just a tad micro, but I do use the general hourly readings it gives me. I don't treat them as gospel, but it will give you a nice general framework from which you can base some of your day trading decisions.
If in fact the model is on target, then this low would classify as an intermediate term turning point and we should look for higher prices from there and as I stated on Thursday, the model did shift to buy weakness.
With this in mind, I will be picking up some short term long positions on the early weakness Monday and they will be placed into the Aggressive Trading Account on the blog. Whenever I post new additions or removals from the portfolio I always use that days closing price and not the price of the actual fill. This way in most instances it makes the account work even harder to perform well and I always like to have some of the deck stacked against me, it helps to confirm whether or not a specific strategy is worth a hoot or not.
I would like to mention that the probability model did return the possibility of an intermediate term low on Tuesday, but it was a rather remote possibility in relation to the typical readings the model gives. It never hurts to be too prepared though and so I mention it.
Have a great weekend and lets all have a profitable trading week ahead!
The model is giving very strong readings to this decline being just about over. As a matter of fact it calls for a low to be put into place Monday in the early morning at the 1444-1447 area on the Cash S&P 500 so watch that level very carefully. If you want to get micro about it, the model calls for a flat to higher open followed by one more push lower, with the low coming in from 10:00 to 11:00 and then clear sailing up with a close from 12-22 points higher. Now I realize that this is just a tad micro, but I do use the general hourly readings it gives me. I don't treat them as gospel, but it will give you a nice general framework from which you can base some of your day trading decisions.
If in fact the model is on target, then this low would classify as an intermediate term turning point and we should look for higher prices from there and as I stated on Thursday, the model did shift to buy weakness.
With this in mind, I will be picking up some short term long positions on the early weakness Monday and they will be placed into the Aggressive Trading Account on the blog. Whenever I post new additions or removals from the portfolio I always use that days closing price and not the price of the actual fill. This way in most instances it makes the account work even harder to perform well and I always like to have some of the deck stacked against me, it helps to confirm whether or not a specific strategy is worth a hoot or not.
I would like to mention that the probability model did return the possibility of an intermediate term low on Tuesday, but it was a rather remote possibility in relation to the typical readings the model gives. It never hurts to be too prepared though and so I mention it.
Have a great weekend and lets all have a profitable trading week ahead!
Friday, November 9, 2007
Equity Market Comment Part I.......11/9/07
The probability model was off today, as it had called for a continuation of the rally phase from Thursday. The odds of what we saw today were only 15% according to the model, but was the market wrong? Fat Chance, the market is never wrong...... PERIOD!
It was an excellent day for day trading and while at times it was a bit of a challenge, we did manage to capture a bit over 19 points on the S&P 500.
I will be doing my work this weekend and not tonight. I am going to take a night off and enjoy the fruits of my labors this week.
Look for the equity market comment on Saturday night, unless I decide to take Saturday off too! : )
Lets hope next week was as productive on the day trading as this week was and also I would like to see the commodity positions start to pick up a little steam as well.
Have a great couple of days and I will post again either Saturday or Sunday, but either way it will be in time for the open on Monday.
It was an excellent day for day trading and while at times it was a bit of a challenge, we did manage to capture a bit over 19 points on the S&P 500.
I will be doing my work this weekend and not tonight. I am going to take a night off and enjoy the fruits of my labors this week.
Look for the equity market comment on Saturday night, unless I decide to take Saturday off too! : )
Lets hope next week was as productive on the day trading as this week was and also I would like to see the commodity positions start to pick up a little steam as well.
Have a great couple of days and I will post again either Saturday or Sunday, but either way it will be in time for the open on Monday.
Intra-Day Update Stopped out
We are stopped out with the move through 1460.
Got 9 points out of the deal so not to shabby!
Looking for a pullback to 1455-1456.
Got 9 points out of the deal so not to shabby!
Looking for a pullback to 1455-1456.
Intra-Day Update
Move the stop 10 1451 as it looks like they might push it lower for yet another new low for the day. 1451 will be about a 1/2 point loss
Intra-Day Update
Well, so much for the 50% level!
We made a nominal new low and stabalized a bit, so while this is EXTREMELY Aggressive I am going to fade the open here and buy long.
I am keep a very close stop right under todays low.
I stress that this is very aggressive!
We made a nominal new low and stabalized a bit, so while this is EXTREMELY Aggressive I am going to fade the open here and buy long.
I am keep a very close stop right under todays low.
I stress that this is very aggressive!
11/9/07 Pre-Opening Comment
Well it looks like the market is going to get hit fairly hard at the open, perhaps 14-16 S&P points.
So now an assessment needs to be made as to whether or not this is simply a correction
from the low made yesterday.
The 50% level comes in right in the area of 14-16 points lower so I am leaning towards fading this opening (going long) after it settles down a bit and seeing if the market can at least fill the gap.
So now an assessment needs to be made as to whether or not this is simply a correction
from the low made yesterday.
The 50% level comes in right in the area of 14-16 points lower so I am leaning towards fading this opening (going long) after it settles down a bit and seeing if the market can at least fill the gap.
Thursday, November 8, 2007
NEW COMMODITY SCALPER TRADE
New signal today in December Cotton.
We are Short December Cotton from the close today, with a stop at 65.80
Check the Scalper Section on the side of the blog every night.
If there is a potential candidate it will be there.
The most recent is to short the Dec. 10 year T-note if the high of today is not surpassed tomorrow.
We are Short December Cotton from the close today, with a stop at 65.80
Check the Scalper Section on the side of the blog every night.
If there is a potential candidate it will be there.
The most recent is to short the Dec. 10 year T-note if the high of today is not surpassed tomorrow.
Aggressive Trading Account - Only 1 Position Remains
Aggressive Trading account covered all except one of the short positions.
I simply did not have the time to go long any stocks in that account today with how quickly the market was moving and the attention needed to the Day trading.
I will begin to add long positions of stocks I think have some great short term upside potential.
I have a preliminary list of candidates, now all I have to do is find the best ones.
The vast majority of the short trades in the account did very well with the exception of a few that I simply let run against me to long.
I will be updating the closed positions numbers tonight or tomorrow.
I simply did not have the time to go long any stocks in that account today with how quickly the market was moving and the attention needed to the Day trading.
I will begin to add long positions of stocks I think have some great short term upside potential.
I have a preliminary list of candidates, now all I have to do is find the best ones.
The vast majority of the short trades in the account did very well with the exception of a few that I simply let run against me to long.
I will be updating the closed positions numbers tonight or tomorrow.
Daily Equity Market Comment - 11/8/07
The probability model hit it on the nose yet again with the early weakness and the reversal to the upside. The only thing it missed on was that the close was supposed to be unchanged to mildly positive, but for our purposes it came through like a champ.
The Day Trading Account captured 21 points today and you really can chalk much of that up to following the probability study. It is always so much easier when you have some type of guide post as the day develops.
It looks to me like today produced a selling climax on an intermediate term basis. This could be seen very clearly on the one minute chart as you could literally feel the panic in the selling.
The probability model calls for a shift from selling strength to buying weakness on an intermediate term basis only. It also calls for the market to continue its rally on Friday with a flat to slightly higher open.
The question from here is whether or not this is the end of the intermediate term decline or is there more to come. I would side with the more to come, but as always, let the market tell its story and we will see if we can decipher the meaning.
The Day Trading Account captured 21 points today and you really can chalk much of that up to following the probability study. It is always so much easier when you have some type of guide post as the day develops.
It looks to me like today produced a selling climax on an intermediate term basis. This could be seen very clearly on the one minute chart as you could literally feel the panic in the selling.
The probability model calls for a shift from selling strength to buying weakness on an intermediate term basis only. It also calls for the market to continue its rally on Friday with a flat to slightly higher open.
The question from here is whether or not this is the end of the intermediate term decline or is there more to come. I would side with the more to come, but as always, let the market tell its story and we will see if we can decipher the meaning.
Interim Equity Market Update For Position Traders
An area to keep an eye on basis the S&P 500 cash index is 1458-1462.
This area could very well mark an intermediate term low at which time
position traders might want to consider long positions.
Remember, the probability model is calling for sharply lower prices today followed by a reversal to the upside.
Of course we will have to take a look at what is going on in the market if and when we achieve these targets, but keep a heads up.
This area could very well mark an intermediate term low at which time
position traders might want to consider long positions.
Remember, the probability model is calling for sharply lower prices today followed by a reversal to the upside.
Of course we will have to take a look at what is going on in the market if and when we achieve these targets, but keep a heads up.
Intra-Day Update
The 5 minute chart is starting to look constructive on the long side and with the quick penetration of the lows and a rally back above we may have just put in a short term low.
My concern however is that the triangle pattern that we went short off of has not satisfied its downside target which is quite a bit lower at 1461-1462.
So until things clear up a little more I will stand aside.
WHEN IN DOUBT.......STAY OUT!!!
My concern however is that the triangle pattern that we went short off of has not satisfied its downside target which is quite a bit lower at 1461-1462.
So until things clear up a little more I will stand aside.
WHEN IN DOUBT.......STAY OUT!!!
Stopped Out
Stopped out of short with 2 1/2 points profit.
I may look to sell the market again if we are able to take out the double bottom today.
Right now the S&P just seems to be playing with the Pivot Point.
I may look to sell the market again if we are able to take out the double bottom today.
Right now the S&P just seems to be playing with the Pivot Point.
Intra-Day Update - Lock In Profits
We have 5 points of profit on the short sale.
Move your stop to lock in 2 1/2 points and if the market continues to move lower
trail your stop always trying to keep it 2.5 points above current levels.
Move your stop to lock in 2 1/2 points and if the market continues to move lower
trail your stop always trying to keep it 2.5 points above current levels.
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