We have out Limit Orders in to Buy at $5, which is about 3/8 above the break out point.
As the trend line moves lower and if the stock still has yet to make its move, we will adjust that limit price to stay 3/8 above the trend line.
Monday, March 17, 2008
GMTN - Keep it on your Radar
We continue to monitor Gander Mountain for a move back above its long term trend line, which on the second thrust should send the stock sharply higher.
We have out Limit Orders in to Buy at $5, which is about 3/8 above the break out point.
As the trend line moves lower and if the stock still has yet to make its move, we will adjust that limit price to stay 3/8 above the trend line.
We have out Limit Orders in to Buy at $5, which is about 3/8 above the break out point.
As the trend line moves lower and if the stock still has yet to make its move, we will adjust that limit price to stay 3/8 above the trend line.
Terra Nitrogen - TNH
TNH is on the verge of making a move one way or the other as it breaks out of the triangle pattern it has been tied up in for the last 9 months or so.
While patterns like this are hard to get a handle on which way price will break, the OBV sheds some clues as to what the odds of the break should be and that is down.
So we wait patiently for the stock to perhaps make a test of the lows at $62 and upon what technical shape the stock is in at that point will dictate whether we accumulate shares or not.
No question we have taken a mountain of money out of TNH with our original purchase at $17 and then selling a bit on the early side at $97. Another purchase was then made upon our $62 target being achieved and we scored another double when we parted company with the stock at $140. So we seem to be very in tune with this stocks behavior and another move lower should put us back into the long side.
Keep this one on your radar as when it moves, It Moves!
While patterns like this are hard to get a handle on which way price will break, the OBV sheds some clues as to what the odds of the break should be and that is down.
So we wait patiently for the stock to perhaps make a test of the lows at $62 and upon what technical shape the stock is in at that point will dictate whether we accumulate shares or not.
No question we have taken a mountain of money out of TNH with our original purchase at $17 and then selling a bit on the early side at $97. Another purchase was then made upon our $62 target being achieved and we scored another double when we parted company with the stock at $140. So we seem to be very in tune with this stocks behavior and another move lower should put us back into the long side.
Keep this one on your radar as when it moves, It Moves!
Equity Market Comment 03/17/2008
Don't even get me started on the Bear Sterns garbage can that was approved today.
I cannot believe how this situation is being handled and I don't even own any of the stock.
I know if I did I would be more irritated then I already am, which right now borders on a loss
of respect for not our markets, but the blatant disregard by the Federal Reserve to even think they had some type of say in the matter. Uncle Ben's respect meter for me has just reached a new low and the size of the negative number is not even measurable.
Wait a minute. Didn't I just say don't get me started and here I am getting myself started.
So lets leave all this behind us now and get into the nuts and bolts of things.
How to make money in the markets.
Today, as noted by the chart of the S&P 500 below, brought the index into the bear market camp with the NASDAQ as we clearly have 5 waves down now with the breaking of the 1272 level. Notice also that the stochastics were unable to reach even a respectable 50 on the last push higher which is yet another sign of a very negative market.
The silver lining here, other than our very light allocation to equities, is the signs of some type of bottom forming in here. We saw a fairly nice reversal today and Tuesday is going to be the tell tale sign as to whether or not we have reached an equilibrium point in equity prices.
If we do get this indication, then we will prepare for the inevitable counter trend rally, which could be quite extensive considering it will be the first counter rally since the inception of the bear market. This potential rally will afford us one lat hurrah in our equity positions, before we put on a 100% hedged position, so make sure you stay tuned.
The Put/Call ratio has reached a point where we typically can expect some type of snap back rally. While there is always the possibility of a back and filling motion over the next few days, this indicator is telling us that for the intermediate term, the worst should be behind us and we should be looking for some signs of a bottom to take advantage of a bear market rally.
Make no mistake.
I cannot believe how this situation is being handled and I don't even own any of the stock.
I know if I did I would be more irritated then I already am, which right now borders on a loss
of respect for not our markets, but the blatant disregard by the Federal Reserve to even think they had some type of say in the matter. Uncle Ben's respect meter for me has just reached a new low and the size of the negative number is not even measurable.
Wait a minute. Didn't I just say don't get me started and here I am getting myself started.
So lets leave all this behind us now and get into the nuts and bolts of things.
How to make money in the markets.
Today, as noted by the chart of the S&P 500 below, brought the index into the bear market camp with the NASDAQ as we clearly have 5 waves down now with the breaking of the 1272 level. Notice also that the stochastics were unable to reach even a respectable 50 on the last push higher which is yet another sign of a very negative market.
The silver lining here, other than our very light allocation to equities, is the signs of some type of bottom forming in here. We saw a fairly nice reversal today and Tuesday is going to be the tell tale sign as to whether or not we have reached an equilibrium point in equity prices.
If we do get this indication, then we will prepare for the inevitable counter trend rally, which could be quite extensive considering it will be the first counter rally since the inception of the bear market. This potential rally will afford us one lat hurrah in our equity positions, before we put on a 100% hedged position, so make sure you stay tuned.
The Put/Call ratio has reached a point where we typically can expect some type of snap back rally. While there is always the possibility of a back and filling motion over the next few days, this indicator is telling us that for the intermediate term, the worst should be behind us and we should be looking for some signs of a bottom to take advantage of a bear market rally.
Make no mistake.We are in a bear market and the real blood bath may still be in the offing after the first counter trend rally has run its course.
History has shown us time and time again that with bear markets, we get the initial decline that gets the masses very worried, followed by a very impressive counter trend rally that causes the masses to proclaim the bear market dead. After this proclamation is clearly wide spread we will see typically another decline that is about 162% as large as the first decline. I don't have those numbers in front of me right now, but I am sure you can get some type of mental picture here.
So, for now, remain with the extremely light asset allocation and start to prepare for a potentially strong bear market rally. Don't start buying yet as we still do not have the all clear, but keep that powder dry.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Equity Market Comment - 3/13/2008
Reliable models are starting to show signs of life after death which is always a good short term indication of a possible resting spot.
Option activity continues to show signs of a market overdue for some type of rally or at the very least a 4-7% bounce.
We continue to make some upside progress as the market was able to come back from some very strong overnight selling pressure. This type of move takes more than just short covering to sustain and finish where it did. This action today helps to negate the lack of follow through warning we got yesterday after stock prices could not keep a head of steam off the monster rally Tuesday.
We have some genuine possibilities of higher prices yet again on Friday. The main catalyst of direction tomorrow is going to be the inflation numbers that are to be released. If we see these numbers come in better than expected then we could really get a head of steam behind stock prices. However, the other side of the coin is the complete polar opposite should the numbers come in higher than anticipated.
The Put/Call ratio continues to show very large pockets of traders negative sentiment and thus should help the indexes to roll higher.
The question here for the NASDAQ is whether or not it will continue to follow this predictive model. As of right now, it is almost 95% accurate, which is pretty darn good and we are nearing a point where we should expect some type of counter trend rally.
This question will be answered over the next 3 days and should we see the next 3 days come in very close to this model, then there is without question some pretty strong indications that we may just start a fairly strong counter rally. Keep this in your mind over the next few days.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Daily Equity Market Comment 3/12/2008
The rally yesterday was very impressive to say the least, however, the lack of follow through today confirms the fact that most of that move was Uncle Ben and the FED trying to prop the market up.
Typically these interventions do more harm than good and while I do expect a bit more on the upside, we need to be very careful in here.
The S&P has not completed its 5 wave down structure as the NASDAQ has and remains very vulnerable to any downside pressure that may be exerted. The move off the lows is clearly counter trend and should have a very limited life with an upside target of about 50 more S&P 500 points. This would put the S&P at 1356 basis the cash index.
Should we see the 1356 area coupled with a pre-mature turn down in the stochastics, then we will have a set up to purchase puts and portfolio protection if you wish for the last leg lower before the market finds its first long term level of support. Expect the first level of solid support to come in at the 1226 level on the S&P 500 cash index. From this level and the right environment, it should be the time to increase our exposure to equities for the coming counter trend rally which could be quite strong.
Aggressive traders can look to capitalize on the decline by purchasing the April 128 SPY puts in the .80 to .85 area. Currently they are trading at right about 3 bucks.
Typically these interventions do more harm than good and while I do expect a bit more on the upside, we need to be very careful in here.
The S&P has not completed its 5 wave down structure as the NASDAQ has and remains very vulnerable to any downside pressure that may be exerted. The move off the lows is clearly counter trend and should have a very limited life with an upside target of about 50 more S&P 500 points. This would put the S&P at 1356 basis the cash index.
Should we see the 1356 area coupled with a pre-mature turn down in the stochastics, then we will have a set up to purchase puts and portfolio protection if you wish for the last leg lower before the market finds its first long term level of support. Expect the first level of solid support to come in at the 1226 level on the S&P 500 cash index. From this level and the right environment, it should be the time to increase our exposure to equities for the coming counter trend rally which could be quite strong.
Aggressive traders can look to capitalize on the decline by purchasing the April 128 SPY puts in the .80 to .85 area. Currently they are trading at right about 3 bucks.
Monday, March 10, 2008
5 Waves Down On The NASDAQ
Here is a visual of the 5 waves down on the NASDAQ.
The S&P 500 still has more on the downside to take out its lows at 1265 basis the futures contract, but it seems inevitable that it will.
As I stated, there is a silver lining to all of this and that is the fact that the first leg down is very close to completion. This will afford us the luxury of getting our equity allocation up from 50% to 85-95% for the always lucrative first bear market rally.
The first rally after the initial leg down in a bear market will appear to be a new leg upward and should begin to curb the massive bearish sentiment we currently have. We also should retrace at the very least 50% of the first decline, if not 62% to 79%. This translates into a move of 17%, 20% and 26% respectively. We look for the bleeding to stop on the NASDAQ in the 2160-2120 area.
The S&P 500 still has more on the downside to take out its lows at 1265 basis the futures contract, but it seems inevitable that it will.
As I stated, there is a silver lining to all of this and that is the fact that the first leg down is very close to completion. This will afford us the luxury of getting our equity allocation up from 50% to 85-95% for the always lucrative first bear market rally.
The first rally after the initial leg down in a bear market will appear to be a new leg upward and should begin to curb the massive bearish sentiment we currently have. We also should retrace at the very least 50% of the first decline, if not 62% to 79%. This translates into a move of 17%, 20% and 26% respectively. We look for the bleeding to stop on the NASDAQ in the 2160-2120 area.
Equity Market Comment - 3/10/2008
Currently I am unable to post charts so I will do the update today without the benefit of visual aids.
The market continues lower and the volume continues to dwindle, which is a plus for the bulls.
The NASDAQ has taken out its lows and this is definitely a bearish event, as it signifies a 5 wave structure down from its highs in November of 2007. This event officially places the NASDAQ Composite in the bear market category, but all is not lost here. The good news is that with the 5 wave structure down we can now be looking for a bottom to come into place at which time a substantial rally will begin and allow us the window to hedge our already light equity exposure.
I have downside targets for the NASDAQ at 2160, 2140 and 2120 Maximum.
It is at these levels that I will begin to load up on equities for the inevitable rally in stock prices.
The other good news is with our very light 50% allocation to equities, the sting from this decline has been very minimal and upon taking advantage of the up coming snap back rally, we should be in an excellent position to begin our protective hedge process.
So for now, remain with the very conservative 50% allocation, but be ready to bump this allocation up considerably as we draw very close to an intermediate term low!
Thursday, March 6, 2008
Equity Market Comment - 3/6/2008
Today was certainly about as far away as what I had anticipated that it was actually the complete opposite of what the models dictated. However, given some of the characteristics of the decline today, it remains very difficult for me on a technical basis to march into the bearish camp and surrender.
The volume on the decline today was hardly what most supposed bear markets would put out on a decline of this magnitude. The sentiment both on a short term and intermediate term remains very bearish, which is a very strong bullish vote in our corner. The most recent polls amongst all of the monitoring services show a large degree of disparity among the ranks of investors. The levels that these ratios are achieving are the same if not worse than the 2003 low in the market. These levels are not bear market levels and are indicative of a market that is in the process of putting in a major low.
As you know, I have subscribed to the notion that the 1270 low on the S&P 500 was the ultimate low for this recent move lower and that it should stand up to any test we may encounter. Nothing so far has changed that outlook. If we have entered a period of the market making a test of these lows, which we knew would come at some time, then the action we saw today is encouraging for our outlook. The key to this entire re-test will be the amount of volume we will see and today was right along the lines of what you can expect on the volume front.
So, in a nutshell, the market may be in the process of a re-test of the lows, but with the vast amount of negative sentiment currently in the market place we should look at any pull back in stock prices as an opportunity and not a curse. The always present bottom test was exactly why I did not go full throttle with the allocation to equities and currently we remain with our cautious 50% to 60% allocation towards equities. As I have stated in the past this allocation will increase as the technical work dictates.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
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Equity Market Comment - 3/5/2008
Quite a day traders dream market today with the volatility.
In the end, the bulls won the battle, but the war is far from over.
The Trading Model calls for higher prices yet again for Thursday and should there be weakness in the first hour of trading, it is also saying short term traders should buy the dip.
Not really much has changed since the analysis of yesterday.
I continue to look for short term and intermediate term higher stock prices.
The only real change from yesterday is the indication that Friday should see a corrective move on Friday.
The reason I bring this up is the effect this call has on Thursday. In order for this Friday model call to remain strong, it will require a strong to very strong Thursday. So, should you see a 0.75% or higher move to the upside tomorrow use this as an opportunity to take short term profits.
The Nasdaq has been pretty much following the line we thought it would as it shows more strength than the S&P 500. Look for this trend to continue as the battered tech stocks come back to life.
One more quick note is that the Airlines Index is starting to get bullish again, so aggressive short term traders can look for some opportunity here. We took a very nice profit out of it about 3 weeks ago and should things progress as we see them, then this next move up in XAL could be even better. This is a risk play however and thus is intended for aggressive risk adverse traders only.
In the end, the bulls won the battle, but the war is far from over.
The Trading Model calls for higher prices yet again for Thursday and should there be weakness in the first hour of trading, it is also saying short term traders should buy the dip.
Not really much has changed since the analysis of yesterday.
I continue to look for short term and intermediate term higher stock prices.
The only real change from yesterday is the indication that Friday should see a corrective move on Friday.
The reason I bring this up is the effect this call has on Thursday. In order for this Friday model call to remain strong, it will require a strong to very strong Thursday. So, should you see a 0.75% or higher move to the upside tomorrow use this as an opportunity to take short term profits.
The Nasdaq has been pretty much following the line we thought it would as it shows more strength than the S&P 500. Look for this trend to continue as the battered tech stocks come back to life.
One more quick note is that the Airlines Index is starting to get bullish again, so aggressive short term traders can look for some opportunity here. We took a very nice profit out of it about 3 weeks ago and should things progress as we see them, then this next move up in XAL could be even better. This is a risk play however and thus is intended for aggressive risk adverse traders only.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Gander Mountain Update
No real progress in GMTN as we had a very narrow ranged day.
Days like this do tell us something. They tell us that the stock is about to make a sizeable move in one direction or the other.
Remain flat until it tips its hand on which way it wants to move and then climb on board.
Days like this do tell us something. They tell us that the stock is about to make a sizeable move in one direction or the other.
Remain flat until it tips its hand on which way it wants to move and then climb on board.
Equity Market Comment - 3/4/2008
Sentiment, both short term as the chart below demonstrates and long term remain on our bullish side with some wide spread disparity and some readings that have not been seen since the bear market termination in 2003
The 1 minute chart below shows the S&P 500 (Blue) and the CBOE Put/Call ratio for today.
Notice the heavy put buying from 2pm on and the market began to recover. This is an ongoing event just about in every instance and clearly demonstrates the very high level of bearishness amongst investors.
The 1 minute chart below shows the S&P 500 (Blue) and the CBOE Put/Call ratio for today.
Notice the heavy put buying from 2pm on and the market began to recover. This is an ongoing event just about in every instance and clearly demonstrates the very high level of bearishness amongst investors.
When does a down day become an up day?
When the market is in the process of a mini bloodbath and it manages to close well off those lows and actually show signs of buying outpacing selling for the day.
This was what happened today, and it is because of the very strong seasonal time frame we are in that it was even able to occur. While the action today was not what I had anticipated and certainly not what my models had suggested, it remains a fairly strong plus just the same.
The model for tomorrow is even more bullish then it was for today with all 9 components squarely in the bullish camp. This at the very least makes the suggestion that any downward pressure we might see on stock prices will be very limited and in all probability with the action today, Wednesday should be a fairly strong day for equities.
I remain attached to my theory of higher stock prices and not a new bear market. It seems as of late that I am just about the only bull left out here and that my comrades is a very very good thing.
I continue to hold a fairly conservative allocation to stocks as there are still quite a few benchmarks the market must clear before I can justify a more aggressive stance, take comfort in the very high probability that any downward pressure on stocks from here should be very limited and the path of least resistance is very close to turning up.
Continue to look for good solid bargains in the market, and there are quite a few right now, but remain conservative in your allocation with perhaps a 50% to 60% total allocation to equities.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Gander Mountain Knocks On The Door Again
It appears the decision to lock in profits on the Gander Mountain trade was a good one as the stock has move all the way back down to the breakout point and currently is resting on the long term trend line.
This offers some potential for yet another long trade.
If GMTN can bounce from here and close back above the trendline, then we will have potential for a very bullish move higher.
This trade also offers some very limited risk as we are right at the trendline and a bounce off of this line will be the trigger to purchase the stock, with a very close stop loss just under the trendline. Risk should be no more than 5%, but it is important that you have the stop loss in place once you are long the stock as a failure of this pattern may lead to a re-test of the $4 area.
This offers some potential for yet another long trade.
If GMTN can bounce from here and close back above the trendline, then we will have potential for a very bullish move higher.
This trade also offers some very limited risk as we are right at the trendline and a bounce off of this line will be the trigger to purchase the stock, with a very close stop loss just under the trendline. Risk should be no more than 5%, but it is important that you have the stop loss in place once you are long the stock as a failure of this pattern may lead to a re-test of the $4 area.
Equity Market Comment - 3/3/2008
The market action today followed fairly well with what the probability model predicted, with a lower open to be followed by a late day rally and a neutral close.
It is also quite bullish that after a more than 300 point down day the previous session, the market was able to level off and not have downside follow through on the close.
The seasonal model calls for Tuesday to be a very good day on the upside and it is this exact type of day that the market desperately needs in order to keep the intermediate term trend from turning negative.
The Models Components are as follows:
6 Bullish
2 Neutral
0 Bearish
Today was also in the time window for the change in trend date, so there is a very high probability that a low was put into place today.
The great thing about all of this is that if a strong Tuesday should come to pass, it will take the probability model into very bullish territory and we could finally see a breakout of this trading range we have been in for quite some time now.
No question that there are some real short term concerns here, but sentiment remains very bearish and the market remains in a very favorable time for higher stock prices.
Currently the long term allocation remains at 60% invested and this reflects some of the concerns I have for this market. However, as we continue to get favorable signs for higher stock prices, this allocation level will move up.
It is also quite bullish that after a more than 300 point down day the previous session, the market was able to level off and not have downside follow through on the close.
The seasonal model calls for Tuesday to be a very good day on the upside and it is this exact type of day that the market desperately needs in order to keep the intermediate term trend from turning negative.
The Models Components are as follows:
6 Bullish
2 Neutral
0 Bearish
Today was also in the time window for the change in trend date, so there is a very high probability that a low was put into place today.
The great thing about all of this is that if a strong Tuesday should come to pass, it will take the probability model into very bullish territory and we could finally see a breakout of this trading range we have been in for quite some time now.
No question that there are some real short term concerns here, but sentiment remains very bearish and the market remains in a very favorable time for higher stock prices.
Currently the long term allocation remains at 60% invested and this reflects some of the concerns I have for this market. However, as we continue to get favorable signs for higher stock prices, this allocation level will move up.
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Weekend Equity Comment-3/1/08
We have a change in trend date coming up March 3-4th and previous to last Thursday and Fridays market action I had anticipated it being a high coming in, but due to the small bloodbath we saw over the last 2 days of the week it more than likely will be a low.
In all probability the low may have occured on Friday as it looks like a downside washout and some strong panic selling. This selling however did not come from the institutional side, it came from the retail side which continues to enforce the premise that the small investor remains very very nervous as they wait for what they believe will be another collapse in stock prices. We can see this activity very clearly in the Put/Call ratios which are showing very prolific signs of wide spread disparity in market players as each rally attempt seems to be met by a wave of selling.
This type of action is quite common when the market is in the process of putting in a bottom of impotance and it is exactly what we are currently seeing in the market.
The market remains in a very strong period over the next 6 weeks, with this coming week being the strongest of the six. This is partially the reason I see Friday as a capitulation day as retail investors flooded out the exit gates in droves.
Therefore.
Considering all the evidence, I see no reason at all to change my outlook and I continue to look for good stocks to purchase and also having lightened up on our call options over last week, it will again be time to buy more on the call side.
Ideally what I would like to see, is a continuation of the decline on Friday early in the trading day on Monday. It will be at that point that I will begin an aggressive campaign of purchasing SPY, DIA and OEX call options for a position trade that should last 2-3 weeks.
In all probability the low may have occured on Friday as it looks like a downside washout and some strong panic selling. This selling however did not come from the institutional side, it came from the retail side which continues to enforce the premise that the small investor remains very very nervous as they wait for what they believe will be another collapse in stock prices. We can see this activity very clearly in the Put/Call ratios which are showing very prolific signs of wide spread disparity in market players as each rally attempt seems to be met by a wave of selling.
This type of action is quite common when the market is in the process of putting in a bottom of impotance and it is exactly what we are currently seeing in the market.
The market remains in a very strong period over the next 6 weeks, with this coming week being the strongest of the six. This is partially the reason I see Friday as a capitulation day as retail investors flooded out the exit gates in droves.
Therefore.
Considering all the evidence, I see no reason at all to change my outlook and I continue to look for good stocks to purchase and also having lightened up on our call options over last week, it will again be time to buy more on the call side.
Ideally what I would like to see, is a continuation of the decline on Friday early in the trading day on Monday. It will be at that point that I will begin an aggressive campaign of purchasing SPY, DIA and OEX call options for a position trade that should last 2-3 weeks.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Equity Market Comment 2/28/08
It is do or die time for the market on a short term basis and there are some very mixed signals.
The seasonal model dictates Friday as a strongly trending up day and the Wedge that we broke out of is being tested both on a closing and intra day basis.
If this test can hold the line then we could see some sharply higher prices in a very short period of time.
On the other hand we have a potential change in trend coming into play on March 3-4th and a stochastics turn down today.
So we have a little of both bullish and bearish implications and this should work its way out on Friday and tell us where equities will be headed over the next 3-6 trading days. As a cautionary measure, we took about 1/3 of the aggressive long and call option positions off the table today just in case we have seen the high for this leg up.
The seasonal model dictates Friday as a strongly trending up day and the Wedge that we broke out of is being tested both on a closing and intra day basis.
If this test can hold the line then we could see some sharply higher prices in a very short period of time.
On the other hand we have a potential change in trend coming into play on March 3-4th and a stochastics turn down today.
So we have a little of both bullish and bearish implications and this should work its way out on Friday and tell us where equities will be headed over the next 3-6 trading days. As a cautionary measure, we took about 1/3 of the aggressive long and call option positions off the table today just in case we have seen the high for this leg up.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Equity Market Comment - 2/27/08
The seasonal model just about pegged the action today with the exception of a very small down day instead of a very small up day.
Everything remains just about in line with the current scenario I outlined yesterday and this would look for higher prices over the next two days and a short term high put into place Monday.
The final target for this high using the S&P 500 cash index is 1412 or about 35 more S&P points from here. This would imply that the next two and one half days should be quite strong and the seasonal model confirms just this scenario.
Short term traders should use the next 2 days to scale back their long positions including call options. There are some very handsome profits out there and it would be prudent to begin taking those profits.
Intermediate term traders can look as the potential pullback as an opportunity to add positions to their equity holdings as the next move after the correction has run its course should be a good one.
Everything remains just about in line with the current scenario I outlined yesterday and this would look for higher prices over the next two days and a short term high put into place Monday.
The final target for this high using the S&P 500 cash index is 1412 or about 35 more S&P points from here. This would imply that the next two and one half days should be quite strong and the seasonal model confirms just this scenario.
Short term traders should use the next 2 days to scale back their long positions including call options. There are some very handsome profits out there and it would be prudent to begin taking those profits.
Intermediate term traders can look as the potential pullback as an opportunity to add positions to their equity holdings as the next move after the correction has run its course should be a good one.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Change In Trend Date Correction
In todays equity comment, I stated March 4th as the change in trend date.
The correction is that the Change In Trend date will be Late March 3rd or early March 4th.
This time frame could also be off by one day, so we will call it Late of March 3rd to Early March 5th.
The correction is that the Change In Trend date will be Late March 3rd or early March 4th.
This time frame could also be off by one day, so we will call it Late of March 3rd to Early March 5th.
Gander Mountain - Protect Profit
Gander Mountain has made an impressive move from the breakout level, just a little over 25%.
We are currently nearing the $7 minimum target level and thus we want to put a stop in place to protect the profits.
A sell stop of $6.50 on a closing basis should do the trick. This will lock in a 20% return should the stock turn lower, but it is also far enough away to keep the position in place and capitalize on still higher prices.
I do anticipate higher prices for GMTN as $7 is merely the minimum target, however, it never hurts to lock in a substantial profit when one is put on the table.
We are currently nearing the $7 minimum target level and thus we want to put a stop in place to protect the profits.
A sell stop of $6.50 on a closing basis should do the trick. This will lock in a 20% return should the stock turn lower, but it is also far enough away to keep the position in place and capitalize on still higher prices.
I do anticipate higher prices for GMTN as $7 is merely the minimum target, however, it never hurts to lock in a substantial profit when one is put on the table.
Equity Market Comment 2/26/08
Today market made the breakout day on the closing basis for the wedge pattern.
If we can get some follow through on this break and send confirmation then we have some excellent upside targets.
More than likely the market will continue its uptrend as we saw some fairly decent put buying action while the market continued higher. We also are coming into the strongest day of the week with Wednesday and also the 2nd best day on the end of the month pattern.
If the S&P 500 can manage to take out todays highs at 1387.34 then the odds of an up day shoot through the roof to 81% and an average .73% return which translates into about 10.5 S&P 500 points.
While we do remain in a bullish phase both on a technical and seasonal level we do have a change in trend date late in the day on March 4th or early trading of March 5th. I anticipate this will be nothing more than a normal pullback, but dependant upon how far the market continues to rally here it could scare a few people, which is just what we need. I will address this scenario as we draw closer to the date.
Wedge on the High, Low and Close chart had its breakout yesterday.
The follow through of today made the closing chart breakout as well.
The Phase Model currently shows some modest bullishness with the following ratings:
If we can get some follow through on this break and send confirmation then we have some excellent upside targets.
More than likely the market will continue its uptrend as we saw some fairly decent put buying action while the market continued higher. We also are coming into the strongest day of the week with Wednesday and also the 2nd best day on the end of the month pattern.
If the S&P 500 can manage to take out todays highs at 1387.34 then the odds of an up day shoot through the roof to 81% and an average .73% return which translates into about 10.5 S&P 500 points.
While we do remain in a bullish phase both on a technical and seasonal level we do have a change in trend date late in the day on March 4th or early trading of March 5th. I anticipate this will be nothing more than a normal pullback, but dependant upon how far the market continues to rally here it could scare a few people, which is just what we need. I will address this scenario as we draw closer to the date.
Wedge on the High, Low and Close chart had its breakout yesterday.The follow through of today made the closing chart breakout as well.
The Phase Model currently shows some modest bullishness with the following ratings:3 Bullish
2 Bearish
1 Neutral
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