The fundamentals are also improving and the combination of this and a strong technical position should prove very beneficial to the stock.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
AGL - BUY ALERT 09/11/07
AGL has some serious upside potential as it has lost all of the downside momentum it had garnered since the double top.
The fundamentals are also improving and the combination of this and a strong technical position should prove very beneficial to the stock.
The fundamentals are also improving and the combination of this and a strong technical position should prove very beneficial to the stock.
Equity Market Comment 09/11/07
While this last leg down in the equity markets has taken a longer path than I had anticipated, I still remain firm in my view that there will be one more push lower before the next major leg up will begin.
The target of 1409-1412 on the S&P 500 comes up again and again in my work on all different time frames, so keep a close eye on this level.
The word for now remain CAUTION!
The target of 1409-1412 on the S&P 500 comes up again and again in my work on all different time frames, so keep a close eye on this level.
The word for now remain CAUTION!
Monday, September 10, 2007
Caution on Notes and Bonds
The very strong move we have seen in the fixed income market may be coming to an end on an intermediate term basis.
This is NOT to say that the bull market is over, but with the hefty move in prices and the profit therein, it would be wise to exercise caution in here and take some if not most of the chips off the table.
This is NOT to say that the bull market is over, but with the hefty move in prices and the profit therein, it would be wise to exercise caution in here and take some if not most of the chips off the table.
NEW COMMODITY TRADES AND WATCH LIST UPDATES
Average down the Long Dollar Position as a potential panic selling climax may have occurred today.***************************************************************************
See Sidebar for most recent trade action.
Long October Hogs at the close today.
Long October Hogs at the close today.
Equity Market Comment 09/10/07
We continue to look for the re-test of the lows to terminate on Tuesday or Wednsday of this week with the 1412 level coming up quite frequently in the work.
Get ready to make your purchases.
Get ready to make your purchases.
LOW RISK SHORT AREA - ULTRA SHORT TERM
Seeing as Mondays time frame for a low passed without event, the probabilities of further decline remain high.
We have a good area to short the market with a tight stop of course.
We have a good area to short the market with a tight stop of course.
Sunday, September 9, 2007
WHY THE PERMA BEARS WILL BE WRONG AGAIN
With all the talk of the 1987 all over again and the perma bears coming out of the woodwork preaching their doom and gloom of the most recent mortgage problems, I thought it fitting to show some very strong evidence as to why we will NOT go into a bear market and quite the contrary should have a great rally.
The chart below is of the Commercial Traders (Blue Line) and you can clearly see they are very heavy buyers and have been very heavy buyers. This is the smart money that is in the know months before anything hits the press and the public reacts. You can bet your bottom dollar if they thought this problem would snowball into a potential financial collapse then they would not be such heavy buyers.
The action of the Commercial Traders is very bullish for equities.
The Green Line below is the Commodity Fund Traders who typically ride the major trend until its extinction. The Fund Traders are wrong about 90% of the time at major turning points in the markets. As you can see, they have been very strong sellers, which is also very bullish for stocks.
The combination of the Commercials being such heavy purchasers of equities and the Fund Traders being such heavy sellers points to one inescapable fact. Equities will not enter into a bear market and should over the next 12-18 months have an incredible run in prices.
The chart below is of the Commercial Traders (Blue Line) and you can clearly see they are very heavy buyers and have been very heavy buyers. This is the smart money that is in the know months before anything hits the press and the public reacts. You can bet your bottom dollar if they thought this problem would snowball into a potential financial collapse then they would not be such heavy buyers.
The action of the Commercial Traders is very bullish for equities.
The Green Line below is the Commodity Fund Traders who typically ride the major trend until its extinction. The Fund Traders are wrong about 90% of the time at major turning points in the markets. As you can see, they have been very strong sellers, which is also very bullish for stocks.
The combination of the Commercials being such heavy purchasers of equities and the Fund Traders being such heavy sellers points to one inescapable fact. Equities will not enter into a bear market and should over the next 12-18 months have an incredible run in prices.
NEW FEAR INDEX
The chart below tells the story of the fear index.
The Red Line is the S&P 500 and the black line is the fear index, which is nothing
more than a measure of investors flocking into the safety of Fixed Government
Securities.
When we see the flocking into government securities as equity prices are in a potential free fall, the fear index will move to a level showing the outright bearishness of market participants.
The fear index currently tells us that we had a climax bottom on August 16th.
This also confirms the outlook for a final re-test which we are nearing the end of right now.
The Red Line is the S&P 500 and the black line is the fear index, which is nothing
more than a measure of investors flocking into the safety of Fixed Government
Securities.
When we see the flocking into government securities as equity prices are in a potential free fall, the fear index will move to a level showing the outright bearishness of market participants.
The fear index currently tells us that we had a climax bottom on August 16th.
This also confirms the outlook for a final re-test which we are nearing the end of right now.
Friday, September 7, 2007
Ultra Short Term Work Calls For More Decline 09/07/07
The 50% retrace of the ultra short term trend today continues to call for lower prices probably right from the get go Monday Morning.
Remember, use this weakness to cover the rest of your hedge and purchase good quality stocks and options as the next move to the upside should be a great one!
Remember, use this weakness to cover the rest of your hedge and purchase good quality stocks and options as the next move to the upside should be a great one!
Thursday, September 6, 2007
NEW COMMODITY ALLOCATIONS 9/6/2007
See commodity outlook sidebar for latest commodity trades and updates.
Equity Market Comment 09/06/2007
The S&P 500 rallied to the 1480 level and retreated, so it appears that the ultra short term counter rally is complete.
From here the market should complete the retest with downside targets of:
1451
1432
1412
The most logical being 1432 and 1412.
Look back to Tuesdays post for the potential bottoming dates.
From here the market should complete the retest with downside targets of:
1451
1432
1412
The most logical being 1432 and 1412.
Look back to Tuesdays post for the potential bottoming dates.
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
New Commodity Transactions & Aggressive Equity Trades 09/05/2007
Check the sidebar for the selling of the long in cotton and a reverse short.
Check the new equity recommendation.
Check the new equity recommendation.
USEC Corp. - BUY Initial Position
USU is starting to look like it has put in its low.
Begin to purchase the stock or stock options now, with a 1/3 allocation to your full line.
Begin to purchase the stock or stock options now, with a 1/3 allocation to your full line.
Equity Market Comment - 09/05/2007
The first leg down of the decline to test the lows looks to have been put into place.
From here I would expect a rally to the 1480 area on the S&P 500. It may not happen right away, but if the market does rally to this level and then rolls over it will be an indication that the final leg of the re-test is getting under way.
I realize that there are quite a few resistance levels on the chart below, but don't let that confuse you. The main area that deserves attention is the 1480 area.
From here I would expect a rally to the 1480 area on the S&P 500. It may not happen right away, but if the market does rally to this level and then rolls over it will be an indication that the final leg of the re-test is getting under way.
I realize that there are quite a few resistance levels on the chart below, but don't let that confuse you. The main area that deserves attention is the 1480 area.
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Don't Get Pulled Into This Near Term Strength!
NEW TARGET TIMES FOR CORRECTIVE LOW -
Mon. 9/10/07 10:30 am
Tues 9/11/07 12:00 pm
Weds. 9/12/07 1:00 pm
While I would certainly like to see the times on these days prove to be correct, the nuts and bolts of the work is based on the dates. The actual times are just gravy, so please do not get the impression that I am trying to pinpoint this to the exact second.
Mon. 9/10/07 10:30 am
Tues 9/11/07 12:00 pm
Weds. 9/12/07 1:00 pm
While I would certainly like to see the times on these days prove to be correct, the nuts and bolts of the work is based on the dates. The actual times are just gravy, so please do not get the impression that I am trying to pinpoint this to the exact second.
Monday, September 3, 2007
Equity Comment 09/03/2007
There is alot of information on tonights chart of the DOW, so make sure your print it out for reference.
In a nutshell:
1. Look for the market to correct here and begin to cover your remaining hedged positions.
I do not think the correction will be very deep, but anything is possible. Aggressive traders can look to go short in here. We went short on Friday.
2. The market made an impulse move off the lows, so this decline should be nothing more than a corrective wave and the major intermediate term low should be in place.
3. If the most recent lows are taken out, I will get downright bearish and continue to apply my hedge. However, the data that we are getting from the commercial traders does not point to a time for any type of bear market, not to mention that the camp of here goes 1987 all over again is growing in size. It may have some similarities time and price wise, but the mother of all indicators....THE COMMERCIAL TRADERS NET INDEX is nowhere close to where it was in 1987. In 1987, the big boys were selling strongly in both July and August! Just the opposite holds true today. They have been very strong buyers and they make the big money so it would be silly to bet against their positions.
In a nutshell:
1. Look for the market to correct here and begin to cover your remaining hedged positions.
I do not think the correction will be very deep, but anything is possible. Aggressive traders can look to go short in here. We went short on Friday.
2. The market made an impulse move off the lows, so this decline should be nothing more than a corrective wave and the major intermediate term low should be in place.
3. If the most recent lows are taken out, I will get downright bearish and continue to apply my hedge. However, the data that we are getting from the commercial traders does not point to a time for any type of bear market, not to mention that the camp of here goes 1987 all over again is growing in size. It may have some similarities time and price wise, but the mother of all indicators....THE COMMERCIAL TRADERS NET INDEX is nowhere close to where it was in 1987. In 1987, the big boys were selling strongly in both July and August! Just the opposite holds true today. They have been very strong buyers and they make the big money so it would be silly to bet against their positions.
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