Intra-Day Market Update

It just doesn't get any closer than that!!

We had our stop at 1533 even to lock in profits and it rallied to 1532.99 before turning lower yet again.

We are out at the close today.

Good day - 15 points captured!

Intra-Day Market Update - Tighten the Stop

Tighten your stop up on your Puts and/or Futures to 1533 even basis the S&P 500 cash.

Lock in at least 4 3/4 points!

Intra-Day Update 10/30

Add to the short position and/or Puts.

Keep a close stop from here of a buck or so.

Intra-Day Update - Sell Short...Tight Stop

Lets short it here, with a tight one point stop.

Intra-day 10/30/07

Will be looking to get short again in the 1435.75 - 1437.75 area.

Will make the assessment at the time.

This move surely looks counter-trend!

Pay Very Close Attention If The S&P Moves Into These Sell Zones In The 1:30 pm area, plus or minus 3 minutes or so. If everything lines up on the sell side at this time we could be in for a quick 7-10 points down!

Intra-Day Update - 1534.30 Profit Stop

Remain patient with the buy stop at 1534.30 basis the Cash S&P 500.

It is make or break time here!!

INTRA-DAY BOUNCE REFERENCE

INTRA-DAY MARKET COMMENT 10/30/07

Tighten the stop significantly on all ultra short term Puts and Short Futures positions.

We have a handy profit and the market is starting to look like it wants to bounce from here.

We can always sell the bounce.

I am moving my stop to capture 85% of the profit.

EQUITY MARKET COMMENT 10/29/07

Scalpers should look for some early lower prices with the break down from the channel, an attempt back into the channel, a rally failure to reach the top and yet another violation of the lower line.
While today presented very sparse scalping opportunities, the pattern near the end of the day may present us with some good downside movement at or near the open.

Equities being held in check by the invariably strong 62% retracement.

Another listless day, even with the positive bias as market participants wait for the

Federal Reserve decision on interest rates.

It would not surprise me to see continued quiet trade tomorrow and most of the day Wednesdays, all the models continue to advocate selling strength and this is exactly what I will continue to do.

Put/Call ratios continue to run very bullish, so it is fairly evident that the market should be unable to enter a period of sustainable rally.

One more push lower continues to be the intermediate term call and at this point with the wide spread bullishness, I don't know if the August Lows will be violated or not. It will have to be a day by day process, but sentiment is in dire need of an adjustment towards bearish before anything can happen on the upside.

I continue to look for a low to be put into place in the time window of 11/2 through 11/9.

Not very much time really for the amount of price action that needs to be covered.

REMAIN DEFENSIVE AND SELL RALLIES/ KEEP THE HEDGE IN PLACE JUST IN CASE THE HAMMER DECIDES TO FALL.

ONE MORE ITEM TO MENTION....... THE PROBABILITY MODEL DICTATES THAT IF TUESDAY IS AN OUTSIDE DAY (HIGHER HIGH,LOWER LOW) THEN WATCH OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEY COULD BE BLOODBATHS.

FORD - Buy Puts For Final Seasonal Push Lower

It is time to buy Puts on Ford Stock as it is ready to move lower and put in a very reliable seasonal low.

I remain firmly bullish on the stock long term, but intermediate to short term the stock continues to carve out a base from which to start a secular advance.

I will be adding the puts to the option portfolio on or near the open tomorrow.

Intra-Day Update 10/29

Stochastics (Blue Circle) are telling us that they cannot keep this market propped up much longer.

Look for a sharp sell off into the close.

HNI - Add To The Put Position

Daily pattern is starting to look very bearish.

Add to the existing Put Positions on HNI.

November 45 Puts currently 2.40/2.65

Intra-Day Update 10/29

Here is an opportunity to scalp 5-10 points on the short side.

Using a tight stop, as if it is going to break low it should do so now.

Intra-Day Market Update 10/29

Not much going on today as the market seems to be in a holding pattern awaiting the Fed decision.

I was going to fade the strong opening this morning, but it was simply to quiet and that tends to make me cautious about a position either way.

I will contemplate a short position should the trend lines be violated with a pick up in activity.

Remember, there is never any harm in going through an entire trading session and not making a trade either way. This may just end up being one of those days.

SHORT MARCH 08 SUGAR

We are short March 2008 Sugar from the open at 10.12.

Looking for a quick and fast break to confirm the short.

Keep the stop close as sugar is definitely at a crossroads and if the sell signal is indeed valid,
then the break should begin no later that tomorrows session.

Candadites For Short Sales or Put Buying

For those of you who do not feel comfortable enough trading the Spyders (SPY) because of the volatility, I am going to offer an alternative with a list of stocks that should out pace the markets either to the upside or the downside.

The basis of which ones to look into will be solely based on the current equity market outlook, which at this time is bearish.

Below is a list of stocks that can either be sold short or puts bought on the stock.

Currently, with three weeks until option expiration, going out to November is still a safe play.

There is some homework on your part with these stocks as you will have to bring a chart up and determine which one or ones offer the best risk reward ratio. Personally I trade the entire basket, but as I have stated in the past, I am very aggressive and that simply might not be your cup of tea.

Ryland Group (RYL) 28 3/8

Anworth Asset Management (ANH) 6 7/8

Biovail (BVF) 19 3/4

Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) 47 1/16

Church & Dwight (CHD) 47 5/8 My Personal Favorite!

Innovative Solutions & Support (ISSC) 20 3/8

Equity Market Comment 10/28/2007

Friday, I posted two charts, one current and one from about 2 weeks ago.
With those two charts I emphasised the striking similarities between the price pattern.

I did not post the entire chart from the comparison module, only the structure that currently has completed.

Below you will find the remaining price pattern from the comparison and if you look back to the post on Friday you can plainly see what the next major move should be for the S&P 500.
DOWN.....DOWN.......DOWN

Nothing is ever etched in stone in equity analysis and this is one of the major reasons I am so passionate about analyzing not only equities but commodities as well. There is always something new coming around the corner and your analysis is dynamic not static so you always have to be on your toes.

It is also important to remember that being right is nice, but making money is really what it is all about. If you follow your plan and execute it without a hitch then the $$$$$ will be sure to follow. This means being able to flip sides in an instant should the work dictate such action. This seemingly easy task of flipping sides I will tell you was the hardest thing for me to master and even now at times it can become a struggle, but I have a pretty good handle on it. It also means being able to take losses when they come and not let hope get the best of you. Losses are invariably going to come your way, and at times you may have a string of 5 or 6 of them, but if your plan is solid and you have put forth the necessary effort of study then these losses actually become an asset of sorts.

How did I get on this subject anyway?
I could write and entire book on the psychology of trading and the school of hard knocks, but that should be for another time.

The point of this post is to emphasise that we may be on the verge of some very nasty downside action and there will be some great volatility to capture both on the upside and the downside.

I realize that my current short term analysis of equities puts me in the huge minority of what people are expecting from the markets over the next 5-8 days, but being in this position actually makes me feel a little better. I always want to be in the minority camp if I can. To me, there is just simply way to much talk about the extremely strong seasonal time frame we are entering and while this may be true, there are some serious differences in market conditions from now compared to the last 9 or 10 Novembers.

In short, be careful and stay ready to make some serious coin on the volatility that should be on its way.

LUMBER - Getting Close To A Buy!

There are quite a few commodities that are starting to set up for trades.

Our job is to find the ones with the best risk to reward and not spread our capital to thin trading too many contracts at one time.

Keep an eye on Lumber, as even a counter trend rally at this point will offer some excellent profits.

Sugar - Sell Short At or Near The Open 10/29/07

Time to sell Sugar Short at or near the open on Monday.

Notice the very wide range on Friday.
Then take a look back on the chart and tell me what you see after each and every time
price action behaves like this.

Now add in the fact that all the momentum gauges have struggled higher as price has worked higher and the short term ultra bullishness of the small speculators and you have the makings
for an intermediate term decline.

REPEAT....REPEAT.......REPEAT

THE EVIDENCE JUST KEEPS ROLLING IN!!!

THE CHART AND NOTES SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES!

Pattern Repetition

Below you will find two charts.
The top chart is the action we want to use to give an idea of where we are headed.

The bottom chart is the current most recent market action ending with today's close.

Now take a look at the two charts......... Do they look just slightly similar in their nature?

No question about it!
Not perfect mind you, but enough similarity to catch your attention.

I will post the rest of the chart we are using as the forecast gauge Saturday or Sunday so you can have some type of idea what is just around the corner for prices.

I'll give you a hint right now..... The outcome falls right in line with my daily work.

I don't want you to get the wrong idea here, these patterns do not always work, but when they line up with other technical work then the odds increase more that price will continue to roughly follow the past price patterns.

Here Is One For The Lesson Book

I strongly urge you to print this out and keep it for future reference, as this invested head and shoulders is very close to perfect.

The only real flaw in the pattern is the slight upward slope.
A near perfect pattern would have a horizontal neckline.

The reason I am posting this pattern is because it comes up again and again on 1, 5 and 15 minute S&P 500 charts. When it does, you have a very reliable pattern to trade with a very predictable price target.

Ultra Short Term Update

Exit the long position established earlier and put another portion of the short position into place.

We have some very nice confluence in here and we need to take advantage of it.

12 points on the long side!! Not Bad for a days trading! :)

Ultra Short Term - Maybe a Test Of the Days Highs

Ultra Short Term - Begin to Sell Short

While the market came about 1.5 points short of the lower end rally target, the action since the strong open is starting to look like the high is in.

I am going to start putting together my short and put positions here, but only about 1/3 of the total I want to purchase. The other 2/3 portion will be added as more confirmation comes in that indeed the high is in!

Stopped Out Of Short Position In Cotton

We were stopped out of the short position today in copper for a $415 loss per contract or a negative 33% ROI.

I will try and get short once again on any strength in cotton.
It looks like it wants to make a 2-3 day move higher and then we can find a spot to go short.

EQUITY MARKET COMMENT 10/25/07

Over the past 3 days, the market has had plenty of opportunities to break the 1490 level on the S&P 500, but has been resilient. Not in a constructive manner mind you, but rather a set up of sorts while all the locals get short.

The probability model because of the late day action and the inability to break the market sharply lower has flipped to a 76% chance of a sharp one day rally, perhaps the entire cycle can be completed intra-day.

This should be a very playable move higher with the potential for 20 S&P 500 points.
Do not get too excited though as equities continue to exhibit all the signs of moving counter to the intermediate term trend, which is down.

For intermediate term traders, continue to sell strength and use this up coming rally as a shorting opportunity as nothing in the daily work has changed to warrant a shift in the intermediate term focus.

ONE FOR THE DATA FILES

All I really have to say tonight about this 3 day pattern is for you to print it out and keep it in your files.

I will go more in depth on it tomorrow.

By The Way, this is the last three days!

Equity Market Comment 10/24/07

While I would simply love to express the opinion that the recovery rally today was a bullish event, that scenario just simply does not fit into the current scope of things.

The move back up, while impressive, was simply the final leg of a complex corrective pattern on the Ultra Short Term time frame. While there is still a chance for further rally tomorrow, odds favor that the end of this complex correction pattern occurred today and that means that lower prices are right around the corner.

The market at one point today was down better than 188 points and still there was NO PUT BUYING. The longer this continues, then the longer the equity markets will be held hostage from starting a new intermediate term leg higher.

As I was watching the action today, I really thought that we could break down to the 1478-1480 area on the S&P 500 cash index, but the late short covering rally stopped and reversed the decline. This in turn gave the probability model something else to ponder as it had called for the market to finish at the lows, not the highs. However, being the versatile model it is, the model adapted and now calls for a sharp drop to 1472-1474 perhaps lower than that, with next support at 1469 and 1460.

Continue to sell strength and remain defensive.

SHORT DECEMBER COTTON

The intermediate term model gave a sell signal today after a 10 day stretch of lingering in the Neutral zone.

Typically a sell signal that is generated from such a series of points in the Cotton Model leads to very good sell signals. The move lower however should begin or continue in this case straight away if this is a good signal.

This type of set up is great as it leaves nothing to chance. We know that a tight stop can be used because of the fact that cotton needs to move sharply lower now.

The Commercial Traders are very heavily short cotton and the chart looks like it wants to fall out of bed.

We are Short Dec. Cotton at 63.82, with a Buy Stop at 64.65

British Pound Secular Shift Into Decline?

The jury is still out on this one, but the evidence continues to mount in favor of all the major currencies putting in major secular tops and the U.S. Dollar putting in a major secular bottom.

Nowhere is this theory more visible then in the British Pound, which is my favorite to trade anyway. The past 2 days especially have seen volatility increase dramatically, first to the upside, gather quickly to the downside.

Now certainly there is no guarantee as to which way it is going to break short term, what I am mainly concerned with is the price action on the whole and it really is starting to look like a break down is on the way.

A break of 202.14 would put me into the market on the short side as the pattern looks like if it does break that it will break fast and hard.

Take a look at the attached chart, it really has something to say!

Stopped Out Of December Copper

Stopped out of the Short Dec. Copper position today with a 41% return on investment.
Once again, the stop did the duty it was asked to do.

I am looking for a counter-trend rally here to carry in the 3.62 to 3.66 area on the December contract.

From this counter-trend rally high I will look to sell short again for the potential collapse in prices.

With the stop out in Copper, the commodity account is completely in cash and awaits another high probability position.

Equity Market Comment 10/23/07

The market pretty much followed script until late afternoon.
If you had sold the strength early in the morning, there was over 10 S&P 500 points to capture.

The last 2 hours of trade ended up in 2 stop outs of trying to establish short positions, so all in all there was 7 points on the short side captured.

While equities have held up a bit better than I had expected, they remain in a very vulnerable position and this bounce we have had off the lows looks to be counter trend all the way. Thus the market remains in the sell strength mode.

Take a look at the two charts below as they show where we are now and also where I think the strength will run its course. 1528 on the S&P 500 cash is the most likely target.

One of the major tip-offs that this most recent rally from the lows is counter-trend came today as the market moved sharply higher right out of the gate and then proceeded to give all those gains back and more. While it did recover to the highs of the day, the fact that buyers were unable to keep the market up strongly after the open is the sure tip-off that lower prices are in the offing. If this move had been a rally in the direction of an up-trend then the market would have never given back its gains.

The other tip-off that we currently remain in the sell strength mode is the weakness in the hourly momentum off the lows. The market has really struggled to get where it is and that is not a sign strength.

So, to sum things up...... Continue to sell strength and watch the 1527-1529 area on the S&P 500 cash index for a sell short point. Look for one last push down to new lows below 1490 on the S&P 500 to complete the first leg down of this intermediate term decline. Currently I have a downside target of 1478-1480 for the end of the first leg down. This target may change dependant upon the final level this current rally carries to.

Equity Market Comment 10/22/07

While a more neutral close on the S&P 500 would have completely confirmed the current probability model, the fact that it did not miss by much lends some credence just the same.

The close we saw today is telling us to look for early strength tomorrow, but to use that strength to get short once again. The work remains fully in the sell strength mode.

With Apple's strong earnings announcement this evening after the close the market should follow the pattern of early strength, giving way to lower prices and perhaps sharply lower prices.

As for the action intra-day today, it turned out much the way I had expected with the early weakness followed by closing strength. Tuesday I think will be just the opposite, but we will take it as it comes to us.

Bottom line is to remain defensive!

December Copper Short Position

Copper currently is the only commodity position we have in play and because it has moved in our favor so quickly and such a long ways I am advising the stop moved up to protect at least 1/2 of the profits.

I am moving my stop down to 3.53 even as this was the low 2 days ago.
This stop will lock in about 2/3's of the current profit.

The reason I am moving my stop in such an aggressive manner is that many times and especially in copper, the commodity will try and make up for some of the lost ground it lost so quickly. By placing the stop where I am I effectively protect my profits from a potential run away move to the upside.

Our copper positions are currently showing us almost a 55% return on investment in just about a week.

Weekend Equity Market Comment 10/21/2007

THE 1987 CRASH CROWD ARE BACK

IN VOGUE

Those of you who have been following the blog know that I do not embrace this so-called 1987 repeat scenario of a stock market crash.

It is not because I do not think the past repeats into the future, Lord knows I have much of my work devised on just this premise.

The problem I have is that you cannot simply follow price patterns alone all of the time.

In order to confirm those price patterns and especially one of the stock market crash variety, you have to see if other factors are similar.

The most important of these factors are Value and Smart Money Behavior.

While there are other factors you could find to use and trust me, the 1987 crowd will data mine until it says what they want it to, you have to use what is most important to the market and what effects prices and without question it is value and Smart Money Behavior.

Neither of these measures even come close to being similar in nature as to 1987. As a matter of fact, it is quite the opposite that holds more water. Smart Money is completely opposite to Fall of 1987 and Valuations are 1/2 what they were in 1987.

So while I do anticipate this correction to go further and the possibility of the decline getting pretty scary from time to time, I welcome all of the talk of 1987 all over again, it will help to erase the huge complacency we currently have in equities and turn some hardcore bulls over to bearish.

The sentiment at this point is the leading factor we need to see swing back to the bearish side before I can safely give an all clear for stocks. For now, keep your hedge in place and stay tuned, it could get very interesting. Don't forget also that early to mid November is our time frame for a low in stock prices.

TAKE A LOOK AT THE CHARTS BELOW AS THEY WILL

HELP TO CLEAR A MUDDIED MARKET

ARNC - 92% In One Day!

Good News for those of you who were aggressive enough to make the purchase.

ANRC was up 92% on Friday!
Go figure, the Dow was down 366 points and this stock almost doubled!

I have a target of 15 cents on the stock and that is still a nice move from here, but even I am not aggressive enough to purchase any and I am pretty darn aggressive.

The problem with a stock like this is that it is very easily manipulated and it is very easy for the locals on the curb to throw you a bone and then take the meat.

The other problem I have with stocks like this is that in my early years (19) I played these quite a bit. Some worked out and some were complete busts. On the whole I saw the entire process as rigged and it was hard enough to make money in the market without somebody else stepping on your face. Can you tell it left a bad taste in my mouth!

There were times also that I had some incredible profits in some of these penny stocks and my selling created a quagmire of sorts as the more I sold the faster the price dropped and I am talking about 30 to 40% with each order. So getting out of these stocks can be a real challenge to say the least.

Anyway, if you had the guts to get in on this one then you might do quite well, as a matter of fact 92% in one day might be enough for you, but if you do decide to perhaps sell a quarter of your position or half or all of it for that matter, test the waters first. Put in an order for 5,000 shares and see what happens to the price. If it acts solid and the selling does not push the stock down sharply then start unloading the stock in blocks and try and not to upset the apple cart.

Equity Market Comment 10/20/2007

The probability work has been completed, both on a daily and weekly basis.
Both models are in agreement that lower prices are on the near term horizon.

While my original post on Friday had eluded to the possibility that a short term low was put into place Friday, the probability work has altered that prognosis.

The work is calling for a rally day on Monday, but nothing spectacular. As a matter of fact there should be some morning weakness carrying over from Friday, so day traders will want to buy the weakness. Then a rally of about 1/3 the damage done on options expiration should close out Monday. It is quite typical for the Monday after expiration to attempt some type of reversal. If we see the market close near the middle of its high and low range on Monday then the probability work will be right on cue.

It is all downhill from there with a strong drubbing over the next 5-8 days. Of course there will be some rally days mixed in there, but the net result should be sharply lower prices.

I remain hedged against further decline and with these new developments in the work I am going to hold onto the short positions in the Aggressive Equity Trading Account.

One of the keys to this scenario will be the area that the market closes on Monday. Should the market close at or near the middle of its trading range then consider the probability model dead on and brace yourself for some potentially ugly stock prices.

Take the time also to read the commentary on the chart below as it sheds some light on the potential intermediate term direction of stock prices.

Daily Equity Comment Part 1 10/19/07

While it was evident after yesterdays daily pattern that a decline had about an 85% probability, I have to admit that while I have been short term bearish I did not expect such a large decline.

I certainly am not complaining, as it took a crap day trading week on my part and turned it completely around and them some! : )

It also helped out our aggressive equity trading account which as you know has been comprised of nothing but short positions since last week. I will be taking most of the short trades off the table however as the market looks close to a short term low here.

The decline on the whole however is not complete as this entire decline from 1570 on the S&P 500 took the form of 5 waves down and a correction will not terminate when 5 waves down is the first pattern to develop.

This brings into play of a counter trend move back up, perhaps making up 50 to 62% of the decline followed by one more leg down.

There simply is too much bullishness right now to even begin thinking of a sustainable move to the upside.

I am confident that this correction should weed out most of the complacency.

Aggressive Equity Trading Account - Cover CSIQ Short

Cover the short sale in CSIQ and sell any put options you may have acquired as well.

All the short positions in the Aggressive Equity Trading Account made great progress with the large decline we saw today.

However, I am getting some preliminary indications that today or early Monday morning may mark the conclusion of the first leg down. I will go more into this subject in my daily equity market comment.

I am going to begin to take most of the short positions off the table starting today and into Monday Morning.

CSIQ gave us returns of +10.25%, +20.80% and +19.52% in just a bit over 2 weeks, so no complaints here.

Use the weakness we should see on the open Monday to close this position.
I will be posting the other short positions to take profits on over the weekend.

STLD - Stopped Out of Put Options

We were stopped out of the STLD Nov. 50 puts at 3 1/2. These puts were purchased at 4 1/4, so we ate about a 17% loss, which is right where we wanted to have protection too.

Here is some great real time experience for you about exactly how important stops are in protecting your capital, and this is especially true in option trading.

Without this stop, we would currently be sitting on these puts at 2 1/4 which is almost a 50% loss.
Not to mention that the stock looks to have broken out from a triple top on heavy volume, so it should continue to rally.

Nobody ever likes taking a loss, but they are something we all have to get used too and in the event we are in error on our analysis, as was the case here, taking a 17% loss really is much better then letting it bleed to 50%.

So, I will say it for the 100th time.... USE A STOP and protect yourself. Tell yourself this over and over to get it into your head because there are still times I might not put a stop in (very rarely) and most of the time I really wish I had!!

Close The Short Cotton Position - 10/18

Cotton has simply gained to much short term strength in here and I would much rather lock in the profits then take the risk of them evaporating.

After taking into consideration all three positions, a loss and 2 gains, we will walk away with about 41% on our money. Not bad, but it could have been better had I exercised a little more patience on the first short position.

All in all the commodity positions are doing pretty well this year.Better than the equity side, but as I have said before, commodities are much easier andmore reliable to trade. I realize this goes against the popular misconception of investment lore that says commodities are fraught with risk, but if you crunch the numbers you will find that stocks harbor much more risk.

Equity Market Comment - 10/18/07

The market action was not as volatile as I thought it would be, but overall I think the market behaved pretty much along our expectations.
This lack of volatility today, should lead to an increase in volatility on the actual option expiration day Friday.

The daily price pattern is calling for lower prices on Friday and maybe sharply lower.

Look to sell any early strength as it looks like that might be the direction of choice over the first half hour. Take all of this with a grain of salt also as this is going to be option expiration and anything can happen!

The chart below is very interesting and quite rare for that matter. Tuck it away in your archives as a reference tool for the future!

Some Danger Flags on Stocks

I have some concern about how completely in stride investors seem to be taking this most recent decline we have begun.

While it is early in the decline, you can plainly see by the blue line that there is still a very large amount of call buying going on and that translates into investors thinking stocks will not go down.

Complacency like this can be very dangerous and while it does not send an all out sell signal on stocks, it does wave a red flag.

I will keep a close eye on this as well as the sentiment polls that are also showing most investors bullish. More so than in 2004!!

So, while these are negatives, we still have the smart institutional money on our side and until that trend reverses course I must remain in a long term bullish allocation.

Soybeans - Near Term Collapse Approaching?

Soybeans seem to be running out of steam here and there are still a slew of negative conditions to send the beans tumbling.

It is still to early to put a short position into place, but much like lumber, it needs to be watched very closely.

LUMBER - Buying in the Face of Doom and Gloom!

Lumber broke down out of the consolidation zone it had been in the last 3 weeks.

While from a technical perspective this is very negative, these technical rules change after a commodity has already had a long sustained move in one direction or the other.

Lumber has had a move from 313 to 226, so we can say the downside move has been extensive.

It is precisely at these times that we should be looking for lumber to reverse course and begin a major move in the opposite direction. The market may just be faking everybody out, trying to get all the traders short before it begins a move to the upside.

No position has been put into play as of yet, but it needs to be monitored as it could send its signal to buy at anytime.

Equity Market Comment 10/17/2007

Quite a wild ride today with the market reversing course several times.

Too bad I was on the opposite side 3 times today.
No matter, my stops protected me, but it still doesn't feel good going 0 for 3.

Tomorrow is another day and it should offer some excellent trading volatility once again.

The two day pattern we had on the S&P 500 today projects a sharp rally tomorrow, with perhaps the entire rally and collapse happening in the same day.

Hopefully the volatility will treat me better tomorrow! : )