Ultra Short Term Sell - BUY PUTS

We are going to buy puts in steps here, as it is quite aggressive in the face of such strength.

Now that the target has been achieved I am going to put on 1/3 of my position with a stop at 1561 on the S&P 500.

As the market begins to go with the first trade I will then add to the position as this occurs.

Remember, this is a very aggressive trade, but also one that could score big today and perhaps be out for the week-end.

Ultra Short Term Trade - Sell Signal Just Around The Corner

One more push to new highs for this move and it will be time to sell the rally short and/or purchase at the money OEX puts.

Look to 1557.50 - 1558.25 as a solid area to enter bearish positions.

Yearly Model Forecast

Over the past 3 months or so I have talked about the Yearly Model Forecast and the dates it calls for either highs or lows.

While the model cannot be used to predict price, it can predict time and also the possible characteristic of the move from date to date.

The dates for the model are as follows:

LOW - 3/14
HIGH - 6/13
LOW - 8/23
HIGH - 9/28

From this point the model shows a very sharp decline from 9/28 to 10/16, with the final low for the year coming in on 11/2.

From 11/2 until the end of the year, the trend should be up, with a very strong December.

So to go over all the dates again -

3/14 Low
6/13 High
8/23 Low
9/28 High
11/2 Low
12/30 High

We shall see how it plays out, but so far this year the results have been quite good.

I will post a chart with the dates on it on Friday.

Bio-Tech Index - Rough Patch Ahead

The Bio-Tech index looks to be in some trouble here.

How severe the break will be is as of yet unknown, but the fact remains that it will be rectified
lower and more than likely sharply.

Commodity Watch List 10-4-2007

Copper and Hogs are entering the Watch List status and should be monitored for buy signals.

Hogs even if they are to have a counter trend rally offer about 9 cents potential which is quite a move.

Copper offer the potential of a mini collapse as prices are on their third try to break through their highs and should it fail this time you will have quite a few commodity funds running for the exits.

As of now I have no positions in place, but they need to be monitored closely.

Equity Market Comment - 10/4/07

While the market has yet to break, the put/call ratios over the last 4 days are starting to show some serious short term bullishness.

I continue to maintain my hedge in equities and expect a correction off the August 16th low.

While I do anticipate this move to be only a correction, once the decline begins I will get a better pulse on the intermediate term health of the market.

SMCI - Add To Short Position

SMCI is forming a pattern that should resolve itself to the downside and typically it should happen quickly.

Currently SMCI is short in the Aggressive Equity Trading Account and I added to the position near the close today.

TNH - Waiting To Add To Positions

Although TNH still needs to decline 2 more days before it confirms it is in a corrective mode, it always pays to try and be one step ahead.

Look to add to the long positions on a retracement of this first leg up.
The blue lines on the chart below should offer you some guidance.

The true upside potential of Terra Nitrogen is truly staggering and as I have stated before, if you thought the move from the low 20's to 140 was big, just wait for this next leg up to get started full force.

For those of you who do not feel comfortable buying into a limited partnership, which is what TNH is, there is the stock of the parent company TRA Terra Industries that is always an option.

Although TNH has offered better returns on its capital appreciation and the rich dividend, some people just feel more comfortable owning the actual equity. Long Term options are also an option with TRA as well.

Either way you slice it, both TNH and TRA should offer some stellar returns in the not so distant future.

COMMODITY TRADING ACCOUNT ALERT

CLOSE OUT THE LONG LUMBER POSITION WITH A 21% PROFIT.

WHILE IT MAY MOVE HIGHER HERE, THERE ARE SIMPLY TOO MANY POTENTIAL PITFALLS TO WARRANT HOLDING THE POSITION ANY LONGER.

STLD - AGGRESSIVE SHORT OR PUT BUYING OPPORTUNITY

Below is about as clear cut a stock to be sold short or put options purchased.

DEATH PATTERN!!

The beauty of this stock is not all the technical sells it has given, but the fact that it also gives us a very limited risk exposure with the triple top and unorthodox inverted head and shoulders pattern.

Place the protective stop just above the triple top highs.

TQNT - Add To Short Position

Adding to the short position in TQNT as the charts is without question calling for lower prices and the indicators are saying this is near the start of the decline.

Soybeans Have Broken!

The beans broke today with a vengeance and slid right through any short term support there might have been.

The grain markets as a whole have the potential to become a blood bath to the downside, so keep those short positions in place!

Great Currency Trade Opportunity - SHORT EURO

There is some good potential for a short sale on the Euro here.

A good trade could very easily turn into a superb trade if in fact this is a secular turn in the trend of the U.S. Dollar which very well could be the case.

NEW AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO TRADE - Short CSIQ

Here is a new Short Position that was added to the Aggressive Equity Portfolio today.

Take note of the huge volume in the stock as it moved higher and then today shows a long Black candle, which usually leads to lower prices.

Commodity Trading Account Update

While the commodity trading account was struggling a bit through the last half of September, the positions in the portfolio have really begun to turn around.



Among the best positions to turn around are the cocoa and cotton that were quite a ways under water and have finally begun to go our way. As a matter of fact the cotton trade is even as of today. The cocoa trade is starting to take off as cocoa begins to move into a potential crash mode as was seen in the action today.

Below are the closed trades in the commodity account and while the performance is below my expectations, it still carries a pretty good annualized return and the tracking of the account is still in the early stages. These performance numbers should do even better as the current open positions in the account improve.

LONG LUMBER - STOPPED 9/12/07 LOSS (-17.3%)
LONG COTTON - SOLD 9/05/07 PROFIT +29%
SHORT GOLD - STOPPED 8/31/07 LOSS (-11%)
LONG LUMBER - STOPPED BREAK EVEN
SHORT SOYBEANS - STOPPED 8/23/07 PROFIT +17%
LONG HOGS - STOPPED 9/18/07 LOSS (-15%)
LONG COPPER - SOLD 09/21/07 PROFIT +78%

RETURN SINCE INCEPTION 08/01/07 - +11.52%
ANNUALIZED RETURN..... +68.16%

3 Winning Trades
3 Losing Trades
1 Break Even Trade

Aggressive Stock Trading Account Update

There has been quite a bit of action in the Aggressive Stock Trading Account over the last week.

While I have been trying to drain down the number of positions in the account as I really do not like to carry more than 10 stocks at a time, it has been a struggle to reduce as the opportunities just keep on flowing.

Below I have listed the current results of the portfolio.
It has been doing very well, hopefully I can keep these results consistent.

Remember that these are very aggressive trades and thus the high returns.
Because these are high aggressive trades only risk capital should be utilized.

CLOSED AGGRESSIVE EQUITY TRADES

LONG ALIF - Stopped Out 8/28/07 Loss (3.7%)
LONG IRS - Closed 08/28/07 Gain +8.55%
LONG DNR - Closed 09/17/07 Gain +7.05%
LONG SNTA - Closed 09/17/07 Gain +26%
LONG KBH - Stopped Out 09/20/07 Loss (5.2%)
SHORT CROX - Stopped Out 09/24/07 Loss (4.1%)
LONG VLCM - Closed 09/25/07 Gain +6.43%
LONG INAP - Closed 09/25/07 EVEN
LONG KEI - Closed 09/25/07 Gain +4.1%
LONG BCTE - Closed 09/26/07 Gain + 26.4%
LONG TNXI - Closed 10/02/07 Loss (1.60%)
SHORT CMA - Closed 10/02/07 Gain +1.60%
SHORT DKS - Closed 10/02/07 Loss (.84%)
LONG PUDC - Closed 10/02/07 Gain +21.87%

RETURN SINCE INCEPTION 08/01/07 ... + 86.56%
ANNUALIZED RETURN...- +173.82%
8 Winners
5 Losers
1 Break Even

One item of importance here is the fact that the portfolio has achieved excellent results while only sporting a 57% win ratio.

This feature alone shows clearly that if you are selective, cut your losses short and let your profits run your investment returns will soar.

NEW DOW HIGH DOES NOT NEGATE A TEST OF THE AUGUST LOWS

ULTRA SHORT TERM EQUITY MARKETS COMMENT

ULTRA SHORT TERM SELL SIGNAL - S&P 500

As the S&P drifts higher, the momentume begins to wane considerably.

Look for the market to reverse sharply here.

Personal Financial Oasis: Start Saving in Your 20's

Personal Financial Oasis: Start Saving in Your 20's

NASDAQ - In Need Of A Pull-Back

LOW RISK SOYBEAN TRADE - SELL SHORT

The price action in the Soybean Market is clearly indicative of a swing high and should lead to some type of decline. How strong the decline will be should be answered in the trading on Monday.

We have been selling the beans short over the last few days and added strongly to our short position today.

Beans look to be in a very low risk short selling area.

A Simply Incredible Bullish Outlook C.O.T. Report

As all of you readers know, I am a huge follower of the Commitment of Traders Report and I utilize this very reliable indicator to the fullest.

The data that came out today, really helps to clarify the current condition of the equity markets.

All I can say about the Intermediate to Long Term is BUY BUY BUY!!!

While I still anticipate a decline from current levels to retrace at least half of the market rally from the August 16th low, I would have to say that my analysis of a potential 15-20 % correction is stock prices has lost just about all of its merit!!

As you can see by the chart below, The Commercial Traders or Smart Money were massive and I mean massive buyers of equities over the past week. As a matter of fact, their buying was the strongest in over 10 years!!!

These Commercial Investors as we have seen time and time again are always on the right side of the market in equities, so it is very safe to conclude that if the market were to be about to decline 15-20% then we would NOT see such strong buying by these Smart Money Players.

What this tells us is that the August 16th low in the S&P 500 should be the ultimate intermediate term low and that the next major move in the averages will be higher.

I am however, keeping my hedge in place until we complete the short term correction I anticipate, probably in the 4-7% area.

Equity Market Comment 09/27/2007

Things seem to be setting up nicely for the start of a decline.

While I expect 1 more rally day, the upside in this market is very limited and very near completion on a short term basis at the minimum.

The Evolution of The Blog Continues

As my readership continues to increase almost on a daily basis, I find myself looking for better ways of constructing the blog and offering a wide variety of investment advice.

With this in mind, I will be launching a new feature that will strictly be geared towards Option Trading.

The Option Trades will be of only the highest quality and offer the best risk to reward relationships I can find. All options will also be run through a value model in order to make sure we are not overpaying for the options.

Keep in mind that option trading should only be done with risk capital as these vehicles are highly leveraged. This leverage offers the potential for some incredible returns and I think all of you will be very pleased with the performance.

This new feature should be up and running over the next week and I look forward to any feedback readers may have.

Equity Market Comment - 9/27/07

The last hurrah rally for a while looks to have started today.
I anticipate this to be a very short rally maybe as short as a high this Thursday.

From there I continue to expect a decline of some magnitude and the nature of that decline will tell us much about what to expect in the future.

The yearly model calls for a major low in the 10/16 to 11/2 time window and the Seasonal Patterns call for a low in the October 26th area. So if we are to get a larger correction, it could get a bit scary as there would be much price erosion to take place in a relatively short time frame.

Remain 100% hedged in your personal investments and make sure you move to 100% cash in your 401K. Either way, a large or medium sized correction, your move to 100% cash will protect your profits and no taxes either!

Take some time to look at the commodity trading portfolio and the aggressive stock trading portfolio as they have been doing very well. I began to post the results as of August 1 of this year so it is still early, but there are some positions in both portfolios that could offer some incredible returns.

ISIL - Keep It On Your Watch List

Although the probabilities are that ISIL will move back down to $30 before it breaks out, it continues to warrant monitoring as once the breakout occurs the move up should be strong and quick.

Cotton - Low Risk Shorting Opportunity

While I have been selling Cotton for about the last 1/3 of this rally, it has reached a very low risk shorting area.

Those of you who have not shorted the cotton are being presented with a great opportunity here.

A WORTHY PATTERN TO USE ON EVERY STOCK AND EVERY MARKET

The hook pattern on the stochastics indicator is one of the most reliable indicators for short term trading.

I have placed a close up of the pattern so you can see exactly what constitutes that pattern.

You are looking for the line to move below 80 and then turn back up from just below 80. Once the pattern turns down one more time you have a very high probability for a price decline.

This pattern will work in all stocks and commodities and while it is very simple, it is very powerful.

Below, you will see the full chart of Ford with the hook patterns I have spoken of. I have also marked all of the pattern completions with the Blue Line.

The results speak for theirselves.

TNH - Decline in The Near Future

TNH may be setting itself up for a substantial decline that will allow a great entry price.

Much like the equity markets TNH is looking like the lows of mid-august may be breached.

I will be supplying targets for the decline.

If you were one of the lucky ones that bought the stock at $66 when it hit my downside target then I would most definitely recommend you sell the stock now and await another purchase opportunity.

A Short Sale For The Conservative Investor

Here is a great short sale opportunity for even the most conservative investor.

Confirmation from the Bond Market on Weakness in Equity Prices

The chart of the 10 year note yield looks as if it wants to move lower, which translates into higher bond prices. This chart helps to confirm my theory of a potential mini collapse in stock prices.

I will also be winding down all of my long stock positions in the aggressive trading portfolio as I started today. This will leave only trading positions that will be in line with the prevailing trend.

Equity Market Comment 09/25/2007

The equity markets are really starting to take form in here and in quite a clear voice the markets are saying one more rally before the potential mini meltdown.

Keep your hedges in place and dependant upon the nature of the decline we may even institute a short position to capitalize on a sizable intermediate term correction.

Take it one day at a time however and see if what the market is telling us is true.

The daily chart is clearly indicating 1-2 more days of rally to be followed by an intermediate term decline.

Of what magnitude we will have to wait and see, but there is some serious potential for a decent sized decline that perhaps could take out the lows established on August 16th.

Fording Coal - Hedge The Position.... Re-Print

CURRENT CHART

Back on September 24 2007, I issued advice to hedge the FDG position and hedge it in such a way that the dividend would still come our way while synthetically we were out of the stock.

I am not re-posting this as an I told you so, but to re-iterate the downside targets.




FDG has been a good one not only with a stellar dividend, but also some great capital appreciation.

Lately though, the stock has begun to show signs of Distribution and is looking more and more like a 30% correction in the stock price will be in the cards.

This correction does not take anything away from my $60 target for the stock, but it does tell us to buy protective puts as a measure to lock in our profits without selling the stock and still being able to collect the dividend.

FORD - Take Your Profits

From the screaming buy point of $7.50 to the current price of $8.48 give us a very nice 13% Gain in about 2 weeks.

Regardless of what the Contract Talks are, the chart of Ford is looking much like it needs to work lower and perhaps test $7.50 again, so take your profits.

Equity Market Comment - 09/24/2007

Remain 100% hedged until we see exactly what the characteristics are of this decline.

I am hopeful that we should only see a partial retracement of the rally from the Mid August lows, especially with all of the institutional support the market has, however, as of late there have been more and more indications of potential further decline.

HOW QUICKLY INVESTORS WENT FROM VERY BEARISH TO WILDLY BULLISH

Below is a chart with the Rate of Change applied to bullish sentiment.

You will notice that investors went from very bearish to wildly bullish at the fastest pace in
over 4 1/2 years.

This to me represents a lack of conviction on both sides of the market, which thus translates into uncertainty and we all know how much the market hates uncertainty.

This phenomenon does not bode well for a market that would continue to rally.

Copper - Take Profits

Sell Long Position In Copper for a nice profit.

The market looks confused here and I would rather take the profit and wait then remain in the market during its period of direction searching.

Indecision In The Cocoa Market

We made an average down move yesterday in Cocoa and Sold yet another contract short today as well.

There is some serious uncertainty in the cocoa market and the price pattern looks to have the potential for a monstrous decline.

Equity Market Comment - 09/21/2007

There are still simply too many concerns to overlook in the current condition of equities in order to get intermediate term bullish.

The first is the lack of a re-test of the August 16th low. This is not healthy and is a sign of an emotional low, not a structurally sound low.

The second is the continues lack of participation in this entire move higher from the Mid-August Low as it shown by the chart below.

The third is the very quick back to bullishness amongst market participants. It seems that everybody is expecting a strong rally here.

Fourth, the time frame we are currently in, as it usually leads to either a stall pattern in prices or weakness. While I do not expect a crash, the market could be setting up for an ugly October that may very well see a correction of 15-20%.

Fifth, the price pattern from the lows is most likely in counter trend fashion, which stipulates that the intermediate term trend remains down.

Now, all of these concerns could be rectified if the market is able to test the lows with ideally a 61.8% decline of this most recent rally, so any pullback here (and one does seem eminent) will tell us much about what is to come.

In the meantime, I remain 100% hedged on core positions, but I continue to look for short term trading opportunities on both the long and short side of stocks.

As usual we let the market tell us what it wants to do as it know about 100% more than us.

ISIL - Breakout Candadite

Equity Market Comment 09/20/07

With this swing high we can expect at least some type of decline in here.
The nature of this decline will give us some very valuable clues as to where equity
prices should head next.

Take a look at yesterdays comment for some very interesting revelations.

Equities - A Cause For Some Concern

While I do not subscribe to the current philosophy of a replay to 1987 carried by many, I do have some reservations as to whether or not the low made in mid August at 1370 on the S&P 500 is actually the ultimate low or simply the first leg down.

It is exactly this concern that has made me keep my hedge in place and while the market has been in a rally phase over the last 10 days there is very substantial evidence that this uptrend is at or near its completion.

The concern comes into play with the counter trend rally structure that has formed off the lows.
The price action has not been indicative of a new trend underway and thus sends a warning that the 1370 area on the S&P 500 may be only the first stop in a larger correction.

The key sign we need to look for is a penetration of the .618 retrace level off the lows. If this price level is breached and closed below then the odds increase that 1370 on the S&P 500 will be taken out.

I will be giving more specific price levels in the near future and as of now, the purchasing of new stocks for intermediate term profit has been put on hold.

If you did not take advantage of the last hedge we put in place back in June 2007, then you have another opportunity here to protect your portfolio holdings.

Understand that I am NOT advocating a Crash of any kind, but simply a deeper correction then first anticipated.

Soybeans Into The Action Plan

SHORT SOYBEANS ON A CLOSE BELOW 9.60 BASIS THE NOVEMBER CONTRACT.

ADD TO SHORT COTTON TRADE

NEW COMMODITY TRADES AND ADJUSTMENTS POSTED.

PLEASE CHECK THE OPEN AND CLOSED COMMODITY TRADES LISTING.

AGGRESSIVE EQUITY TRADES

NEW AGGRESSIVE STOCK PURCHASES TODAY WITH KB HOMES THE HIGHLIGHT.

CHECK THE OPEN EQUITY TRADES FOR THE NEW TRADES.

Equity Market Comment - 09/18/2007

Although the market continues to move up, the underlying strength remains highly suspect.

I have yet to get sucked into this rally as all the internals continue to call for a constructive re-test of the lows. Even the internals today for such a large move were very weak.

Keep your powder dry however and do not get sucked into the short term euphoria.

SOYBEANS - On The Watch List For A Short Sale

A strong downside reversal on Tuesday will signal a trend shift in the Soybeans.

Look to go short on any substantial weakness.

COCOA - Near Term Collapse Possible

Cocoa looks to be on the verge of a potential collapse.

On the next negative close, add to the existing short position.

ULTRA AGGRESSIVE PLAY

Here is a stock that has some serious potential to double and in short order.

Please keep in mind that this is a very aggressive play and a tight stop is necessary.

Actually a tight stop is necessary in any trade!

Equity Market Comment - 09/17/2007

Had a productive trading day in the equity markets as we remain short from 1479 and 1480.

I continue to anticipate lower prices to close out the re-test.

Get prepared to enter your buy orders on the stocks that were posted under the Trend Analysis Mutual Fund Post of a few days ago.

Increase Short Position - Ultra Short Term

We have about as close to a perfect set up here on the Ultra Short Term as you will get.

Increase the short position for a potential drubbing into the close.

Low Risk Put Buying Opportunity 09/17/07