We have a good area to short the market with a tight stop of course.
Monday, September 10, 2007
LOW RISK SHORT AREA - ULTRA SHORT TERM
Seeing as Mondays time frame for a low passed without event, the probabilities of further decline remain high.
We have a good area to short the market with a tight stop of course.
We have a good area to short the market with a tight stop of course.
Sunday, September 9, 2007
WHY THE PERMA BEARS WILL BE WRONG AGAIN
With all the talk of the 1987 all over again and the perma bears coming out of the woodwork preaching their doom and gloom of the most recent mortgage problems, I thought it fitting to show some very strong evidence as to why we will NOT go into a bear market and quite the contrary should have a great rally.
The chart below is of the Commercial Traders (Blue Line) and you can clearly see they are very heavy buyers and have been very heavy buyers. This is the smart money that is in the know months before anything hits the press and the public reacts. You can bet your bottom dollar if they thought this problem would snowball into a potential financial collapse then they would not be such heavy buyers.
The action of the Commercial Traders is very bullish for equities.
The Green Line below is the Commodity Fund Traders who typically ride the major trend until its extinction. The Fund Traders are wrong about 90% of the time at major turning points in the markets. As you can see, they have been very strong sellers, which is also very bullish for stocks.
The combination of the Commercials being such heavy purchasers of equities and the Fund Traders being such heavy sellers points to one inescapable fact. Equities will not enter into a bear market and should over the next 12-18 months have an incredible run in prices.
The chart below is of the Commercial Traders (Blue Line) and you can clearly see they are very heavy buyers and have been very heavy buyers. This is the smart money that is in the know months before anything hits the press and the public reacts. You can bet your bottom dollar if they thought this problem would snowball into a potential financial collapse then they would not be such heavy buyers.
The action of the Commercial Traders is very bullish for equities.
The Green Line below is the Commodity Fund Traders who typically ride the major trend until its extinction. The Fund Traders are wrong about 90% of the time at major turning points in the markets. As you can see, they have been very strong sellers, which is also very bullish for stocks.
The combination of the Commercials being such heavy purchasers of equities and the Fund Traders being such heavy sellers points to one inescapable fact. Equities will not enter into a bear market and should over the next 12-18 months have an incredible run in prices.
NEW FEAR INDEX
The chart below tells the story of the fear index.
The Red Line is the S&P 500 and the black line is the fear index, which is nothing
more than a measure of investors flocking into the safety of Fixed Government
Securities.
When we see the flocking into government securities as equity prices are in a potential free fall, the fear index will move to a level showing the outright bearishness of market participants.
The fear index currently tells us that we had a climax bottom on August 16th.
This also confirms the outlook for a final re-test which we are nearing the end of right now.
The Red Line is the S&P 500 and the black line is the fear index, which is nothing
more than a measure of investors flocking into the safety of Fixed Government
Securities.
When we see the flocking into government securities as equity prices are in a potential free fall, the fear index will move to a level showing the outright bearishness of market participants.
The fear index currently tells us that we had a climax bottom on August 16th.
This also confirms the outlook for a final re-test which we are nearing the end of right now.
Friday, September 7, 2007
Ultra Short Term Work Calls For More Decline 09/07/07
The 50% retrace of the ultra short term trend today continues to call for lower prices probably right from the get go Monday Morning.
Remember, use this weakness to cover the rest of your hedge and purchase good quality stocks and options as the next move to the upside should be a great one!
Remember, use this weakness to cover the rest of your hedge and purchase good quality stocks and options as the next move to the upside should be a great one!
Thursday, September 6, 2007
NEW COMMODITY ALLOCATIONS 9/6/2007
See commodity outlook sidebar for latest commodity trades and updates.
Equity Market Comment 09/06/2007
The S&P 500 rallied to the 1480 level and retreated, so it appears that the ultra short term counter rally is complete.
From here the market should complete the retest with downside targets of:
1451
1432
1412
The most logical being 1432 and 1412.
Look back to Tuesdays post for the potential bottoming dates.
From here the market should complete the retest with downside targets of:
1451
1432
1412
The most logical being 1432 and 1412.
Look back to Tuesdays post for the potential bottoming dates.
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
New Commodity Transactions & Aggressive Equity Trades 09/05/2007
Check the sidebar for the selling of the long in cotton and a reverse short.
Check the new equity recommendation.
Check the new equity recommendation.
USEC Corp. - BUY Initial Position
USU is starting to look like it has put in its low.
Begin to purchase the stock or stock options now, with a 1/3 allocation to your full line.
Begin to purchase the stock or stock options now, with a 1/3 allocation to your full line.
Equity Market Comment - 09/05/2007
The first leg down of the decline to test the lows looks to have been put into place.
From here I would expect a rally to the 1480 area on the S&P 500. It may not happen right away, but if the market does rally to this level and then rolls over it will be an indication that the final leg of the re-test is getting under way.
I realize that there are quite a few resistance levels on the chart below, but don't let that confuse you. The main area that deserves attention is the 1480 area.
From here I would expect a rally to the 1480 area on the S&P 500. It may not happen right away, but if the market does rally to this level and then rolls over it will be an indication that the final leg of the re-test is getting under way.
I realize that there are quite a few resistance levels on the chart below, but don't let that confuse you. The main area that deserves attention is the 1480 area.
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Don't Get Pulled Into This Near Term Strength!
NEW TARGET TIMES FOR CORRECTIVE LOW -
Mon. 9/10/07 10:30 am
Tues 9/11/07 12:00 pm
Weds. 9/12/07 1:00 pm
While I would certainly like to see the times on these days prove to be correct, the nuts and bolts of the work is based on the dates. The actual times are just gravy, so please do not get the impression that I am trying to pinpoint this to the exact second.
Mon. 9/10/07 10:30 am
Tues 9/11/07 12:00 pm
Weds. 9/12/07 1:00 pm
While I would certainly like to see the times on these days prove to be correct, the nuts and bolts of the work is based on the dates. The actual times are just gravy, so please do not get the impression that I am trying to pinpoint this to the exact second.
Monday, September 3, 2007
Equity Comment 09/03/2007
There is alot of information on tonights chart of the DOW, so make sure your print it out for reference.
In a nutshell:
1. Look for the market to correct here and begin to cover your remaining hedged positions.
I do not think the correction will be very deep, but anything is possible. Aggressive traders can look to go short in here. We went short on Friday.
2. The market made an impulse move off the lows, so this decline should be nothing more than a corrective wave and the major intermediate term low should be in place.
3. If the most recent lows are taken out, I will get downright bearish and continue to apply my hedge. However, the data that we are getting from the commercial traders does not point to a time for any type of bear market, not to mention that the camp of here goes 1987 all over again is growing in size. It may have some similarities time and price wise, but the mother of all indicators....THE COMMERCIAL TRADERS NET INDEX is nowhere close to where it was in 1987. In 1987, the big boys were selling strongly in both July and August! Just the opposite holds true today. They have been very strong buyers and they make the big money so it would be silly to bet against their positions.
In a nutshell:
1. Look for the market to correct here and begin to cover your remaining hedged positions.
I do not think the correction will be very deep, but anything is possible. Aggressive traders can look to go short in here. We went short on Friday.
2. The market made an impulse move off the lows, so this decline should be nothing more than a corrective wave and the major intermediate term low should be in place.
3. If the most recent lows are taken out, I will get downright bearish and continue to apply my hedge. However, the data that we are getting from the commercial traders does not point to a time for any type of bear market, not to mention that the camp of here goes 1987 all over again is growing in size. It may have some similarities time and price wise, but the mother of all indicators....THE COMMERCIAL TRADERS NET INDEX is nowhere close to where it was in 1987. In 1987, the big boys were selling strongly in both July and August! Just the opposite holds true today. They have been very strong buyers and they make the big money so it would be silly to bet against their positions.
Friday, August 31, 2007
PIVOT POINT AUTO TRADER
There is going to be a new addition to the blog and it will be a completely automatic trading program based on Pivot Points.
Everything will be completely Black and White and will leave no room for second guessing.
The program will be based on aggressive trading principles, so please utilize only trading resources allocated for this purpose.
If you have any particular stocks that you might like put into the program just drop me a line and I will see what I can do. The candidates for the program must be stocks of an active nature and sell above $5.
Everything will be completely Black and White and will leave no room for second guessing.
The program will be based on aggressive trading principles, so please utilize only trading resources allocated for this purpose.
If you have any particular stocks that you might like put into the program just drop me a line and I will see what I can do. The candidates for the program must be stocks of an active nature and sell above $5.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
Equity Market Comment - 08/30/2007
I continue to look for the market to move lower in the process of a re-test of the lows.
There does remain upside potential to 1484-1486 before the decline gathers steam.
If the S&P 500 gets to these levels, it will be a low risk shorting opportunity.
The Downside target of 1414 to 1412 has come up through numerous calculations so there is some confluence amongst targets.
There does remain upside potential to 1484-1486 before the decline gathers steam.
If the S&P 500 gets to these levels, it will be a low risk shorting opportunity.
The Downside target of 1414 to 1412 has come up through numerous calculations so there is some confluence amongst targets.
New Commodity Recommendations
New Commodity Recommendations Are Listed On The Sidebar Today.
There Are Some Great Opportunities.
There Are Some Great Opportunities.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
SHORT OCT Crude
Crude Oil is in an area that a low risk short can be put in place.
Keep the stop tight.
Keep the stop tight.
Corus Bankshares - Incredible Value Long Term
CORS is also on the buy list for new purchases once the re-test is complete and the all clear is given.
Take a look at how well run this bank is and the extreme undervalued nature of the stock price.
While the sector has had its share of challenges recently, the stock should give an incredible return over the long term. This is all without even mentioning the almost 7% yield on the dividend.
Take a look at how well run this bank is and the extreme undervalued nature of the stock price.
While the sector has had its share of challenges recently, the stock should give an incredible return over the long term. This is all without even mentioning the almost 7% yield on the dividend.
Dean Foods - Buy Candadite
Since the sell signal that we got on Dean Foods the stock has been in an ongoing decline.
It is starting to look attractive in this area and has also made the cut in our fundamental screening as well.
With this in mind Dean Foods is going on the buy list once the dust settles on this re-test.
It is starting to look attractive in this area and has also made the cut in our fundamental screening as well.
With this in mind Dean Foods is going on the buy list once the dust settles on this re-test.
08/29/07 Equity Comment
The markets certainly seem to be coming together as anticipated, although at a faster clip then I had expected.
In one day the S&P 500 reached its upside target, a feat that I had thought would take 2 or 3 days at the minimum.
The scenario now calls for one more push lower to complete the re-test of the S&P 500 lows at 1370. I am looking for 1412 on the S&P 500 for the final re-test target level. It will be at this point that all of my hedges will be covered and more equity purchases will be on the fore.
These market movements have occurred so quickly that I have yet to post the buy list, but I will try and get around to it over the next couple of days if not the holiday weekend.
In one day the S&P 500 reached its upside target, a feat that I had thought would take 2 or 3 days at the minimum.
The scenario now calls for one more push lower to complete the re-test of the S&P 500 lows at 1370. I am looking for 1412 on the S&P 500 for the final re-test target level. It will be at this point that all of my hedges will be covered and more equity purchases will be on the fore.
These market movements have occurred so quickly that I have yet to post the buy list, but I will try and get around to it over the next couple of days if not the holiday weekend.
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Add To Short Position In Corn
It has been a very busy day in the commodity markets with all kinds of set ups and near set ups approaching.
Sitting on a substantial profit from our long term sell signal in corn, it looks like it is time to add short contracts to the position as corn looks very vulnerable in here. Add to the December contract at your discretion.
Soybeans offer a short sale opportunity as well, but corn has the stronger sell signal.
Sitting on a substantial profit from our long term sell signal in corn, it looks like it is time to add short contracts to the position as corn looks very vulnerable in here. Add to the December contract at your discretion.
Soybeans offer a short sale opportunity as well, but corn has the stronger sell signal.
Very Aggressive Cotton Trade
Very Aggressive traders can purchase another December Cotton contract as it looks as if the first leg down has been completed.
While I had originally anticipated that Cotton would wage one more rally to new highs before the downside action would begin, it appears now that the most recent high at 68.80 is in fact the top and we have just completed the first leg down.
A rally back to 62.75 looks like a logical move from here.
Please understand that this is a very aggressive trade and is not for every commodity trader.
Set the Sell Stop at 56.60 for a total risk of $450 per contract.
While I had originally anticipated that Cotton would wage one more rally to new highs before the downside action would begin, it appears now that the most recent high at 68.80 is in fact the top and we have just completed the first leg down.
A rally back to 62.75 looks like a logical move from here.
Please understand that this is a very aggressive trade and is not for every commodity trader.
Set the Sell Stop at 56.60 for a total risk of $450 per contract.
New Commodity Alert
Risk is very limited in here and I did receive numerous buy signals today on the Dollar.
We are long the Leveraged Powershares Dollar fund and have the stop basis the cash dollar index at 80.50 on a close only.
We are long the Leveraged Powershares Dollar fund and have the stop basis the cash dollar index at 80.50 on a close only.
USEC Corp - Getting Close to the Buy Zone
Keep and eye on USU as the market continues the re-test of the lows.
It is one of the stocks that we are going to re-purchase once this short term decline is out of the way.
The lows just below $13 should be strong enough to hold any further selling in the stock.
It is one of the stocks that we are going to re-purchase once this short term decline is out of the way.
The lows just below $13 should be strong enough to hold any further selling in the stock.
Equity Market Comment
The short term decline continued today with quite an impressive show I must say.
I continue to believe that this is merely a re-test of the lows, but it should also serve to get the few bullish stragglers into the bear camp. Just in time for a sustainable rally to ensue.
I continue to believe that this is merely a re-test of the lows, but it should also serve to get the few bullish stragglers into the bear camp. Just in time for a sustainable rally to ensue.
Get ready to unwind the majority of your hedge on this re-test!
Short Term Long Stopped Out
Appears we were a little early, but the close stop once again kept our loss very limited.
Look to buy back in on if a rally ensues in the last 20 minutes of trading.
Look to buy back in on if a rally ensues in the last 20 minutes of trading.
Short Term Trade Opportunity
The market has sold off and looks to have completed the first short term leg down.
Aggressive traders can go long in here and buy call options with a stop just about a point below the most recent lows of today.
Aggressive traders can go long in here and buy call options with a stop just about a point below the most recent lows of today.
Monday, August 27, 2007
Equity Market Comment
The stock market appears to have begun the process of testing the lows established in mid August.
While some of the models have yet to give sell signals, there seems to be enough evidence that we are entering into a short term decline.
The model continues to call for Sept 5Th as the date for the low to occur. So from here to now it would be prudent to get all our hedges covered as the market declines and to begin a process to add to existing quality equity positions.
I will be positing my buy candidates in the next few days.
While some of the models have yet to give sell signals, there seems to be enough evidence that we are entering into a short term decline.
The model continues to call for Sept 5Th as the date for the low to occur. So from here to now it would be prudent to get all our hedges covered as the market declines and to begin a process to add to existing quality equity positions.
I will be positing my buy candidates in the next few days.
Sunday, August 26, 2007
New Addition To The Blog - Commodity Outlook
In an effort to make my blog more useful and also to save time, I have added a new feature that will be located over on the right hand sidebar.
It will list all of the commodities that I see as potential trades and the condition of these markets.
It will also give instructions such as Buying Weakness or Selling Strength as a guideline to the health of each individual market. There also may be a reference to a specific trade that was put into place and the net result or ongoing status of such trade.
Each entry will also have a date that will indicate when the last update of that particular commodity was. The list will also be put in order of importance, with current trades at or near the top and upcoming opportunities just below that.
This should really help to save time in the assessment of each market, although from time to time there will be posts on specific commodities with charts as needed.
If you have any suggestions on how to make this blog better in any way shape or form, please feel free to drop me a line. I have gotten some great feedback and this new feature is in answer to quite a few reader suggestions.
It will list all of the commodities that I see as potential trades and the condition of these markets.
It will also give instructions such as Buying Weakness or Selling Strength as a guideline to the health of each individual market. There also may be a reference to a specific trade that was put into place and the net result or ongoing status of such trade.
Each entry will also have a date that will indicate when the last update of that particular commodity was. The list will also be put in order of importance, with current trades at or near the top and upcoming opportunities just below that.
This should really help to save time in the assessment of each market, although from time to time there will be posts on specific commodities with charts as needed.
If you have any suggestions on how to make this blog better in any way shape or form, please feel free to drop me a line. I have gotten some great feedback and this new feature is in answer to quite a few reader suggestions.
Dow Jone Transports & 10 Year T-Note Yields
I have talked about this in the past, but I thought a re-post would be a good idea considering the correlation continues.
THE LONG TERM PERSPECTIVE ON INTEREST RATES
The monthly chart of the 10 year notes yield has some very bullish implications for interest rates.
According to this long term chart, we should see rates work lower and dramatically so over the next 12- 18 months.
Take a look at the chart and see for yourself.
According to this long term chart, we should see rates work lower and dramatically so over the next 12- 18 months.
Take a look at the chart and see for yourself.
TNH Update
Terra Nitrogen offers some excellent value and the most recent pullback followed by the 8 day rally has confirmed the bullish posture I currently have taken on the stock.
Look to purchase the shares on a pullback.
Look to purchase the shares on a pullback.
Friday, August 24, 2007
Short Term Top
While the reflex rally off the most recent lows was quicker than I had anticipated, it has reached a point where caution must be adhered too.
I continue to believe that an intermediate term low was put into place on August 16-17 and that a re-test of these lows should prove successful. However, there is a bit of short term complacency hitting equities right now and a decline in prices would be just what the doctor ordered to weed out this short term bullishness.
Short term Stock positions and call options should be closed out and preparation for the last leg of removing the hedges from stock positions as the market moves lower should be the battle plan at this time.
I continue to believe that an intermediate term low was put into place on August 16-17 and that a re-test of these lows should prove successful. However, there is a bit of short term complacency hitting equities right now and a decline in prices would be just what the doctor ordered to weed out this short term bullishness.
Short term Stock positions and call options should be closed out and preparation for the last leg of removing the hedges from stock positions as the market moves lower should be the battle plan at this time.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
New Aggressive Stock Pick
Below you will find ALIF that will be added to the Aggressive side of the Equity Portfolio.
This is a highly speculative issue, but it offers some incredible return numbers.
The stock has potential all the way to $8 and with a stop at or very near the most recent lows the risk is very limited.
Take a look at it!!
This is a highly speculative issue, but it offers some incredible return numbers.
The stock has potential all the way to $8 and with a stop at or very near the most recent lows the risk is very limited.
Take a look at it!!
Strong Intermediate Term Bottom Confirmation
The turning up of the Point and Figure Sentiment chart is great news for long term investors.
This helps to confirm that the most recent lows made are in place and a re-test should not break below these established lows.
This is very reliable.
Even more reliable for a confirmation of an intermediate term trend shift from down to up is the move higher in the Three Line Break chart of sentiment. The key here is the turning up after a new low was put in place on the sentiment chart.
All in all, these signals tell us that once the re-test of the lows begins, then it will be time to cover the rest of our hedged positions and look to add to the long side of our portfolios.
This helps to confirm that the most recent lows made are in place and a re-test should not break below these established lows.
This is very reliable.
Even more reliable for a confirmation of an intermediate term trend shift from down to up is the move higher in the Three Line Break chart of sentiment. The key here is the turning up after a new low was put in place on the sentiment chart.All in all, these signals tell us that once the re-test of the lows begins, then it will be time to cover the rest of our hedged positions and look to add to the long side of our portfolios.
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
LUMBER - Might Be A Run To The Downside
Stopped out of the long position in Lumber today at break-even.
It appears it is a good thing we had the stop in as the price action looks as though it might try and test the lows in the low 230's. I even had a passing thought of going short in here.
I didn't however as it does not coincide with the commercial traders positions.
It appears it is a good thing we had the stop in as the price action looks as though it might try and test the lows in the low 230's. I even had a passing thought of going short in here.
I didn't however as it does not coincide with the commercial traders positions.
Equity Update - Rally Continues
It is starting to look more and more like equities will rally to the 1484-1489 area basis the S&P 500 before the re-test of the lows begins.
I had really anticipated this rally process to take a bit longer and also not be so one sided in the trend, but as is always the case... THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT!
During the re-test of the lows we will finish up removing the hedges from our core positions.
I will also put together the buy list to execute on the Test.
I had really anticipated this rally process to take a bit longer and also not be so one sided in the trend, but as is always the case... THE MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT!
During the re-test of the lows we will finish up removing the hedges from our core positions.
I will also put together the buy list to execute on the Test.
Short Term Trade - Stopped Out Even
The short term sell that was put in place seemed to go our way almost at once and actually had I stepped the stop down it actually would have garnered a profit, but I didn't so it broke even.
I cannot really complain about it though as once more a stop loss placement has saved money.
This is exactly why it is imperative to use stop loss orders and especially in short time frame trading. Trading without stops short term is very near suicide!
I cannot really complain about it though as once more a stop loss placement has saved money.
This is exactly why it is imperative to use stop loss orders and especially in short time frame trading. Trading without stops short term is very near suicide!
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
TNH - Opportunity Knocks Once More
Terra Nitrogen has some incredible Long Term prospects and it will offer yet another opportunity to get on board before the real fireworks start.
EQUITY MARKET COMMENT - Make Up My Mind Already!
WHICH SIDE OF MY MOUTH AM I GOING TO TALK OUT OF TONIGHT!
Well, both actually! : )
After I had posted today's equity market comment I ran into something rather interesting with the short term model that has been so accurate, but was off the mark the last couple of days.
It actually is telling us two things and both at opposite ends of the spectrum.
One side is calling for lower prices tomorrow and the other side is calling for a subdued rally tomorrow. I say a subdued rally based on all the volatility we have had over the last 3 weeks.
Here is the Meat and Potatoes of this whole snafu.... It simply does not matter which scenario plays out as we can work it to our advantage either way.
This is what I mean.... Should the market have a decent rally of say 6-9 S&P points then it becomes a very low risk short position and we already know that the market should move lower before it rallies in earnest, so should it move sharply lower then we can go long and/or cover more of our hedges.
So in a matter of speaking, this confusion and double speak can be used to the advantage.
Well, both actually! : )
After I had posted today's equity market comment I ran into something rather interesting with the short term model that has been so accurate, but was off the mark the last couple of days.
It actually is telling us two things and both at opposite ends of the spectrum.
One side is calling for lower prices tomorrow and the other side is calling for a subdued rally tomorrow. I say a subdued rally based on all the volatility we have had over the last 3 weeks.
Here is the Meat and Potatoes of this whole snafu.... It simply does not matter which scenario plays out as we can work it to our advantage either way.
This is what I mean.... Should the market have a decent rally of say 6-9 S&P points then it becomes a very low risk short position and we already know that the market should move lower before it rallies in earnest, so should it move sharply lower then we can go long and/or cover more of our hedges.
So in a matter of speaking, this confusion and double speak can be used to the advantage.
Commodities Update
Sugar - Remain on the sidelines. Looking for a place to go long October Sugar.
Lumber - Very close to our break even stop, but still holding onto the Long position. Look to roll out to the November Contract on any rally from here.
Soybeans - Move stop to 8.50 even to lock in profit. Beans should work lower from here and if they don't we want to look to capture some of the profit we have on the books.
Corn - Hold the Long Term Short Position
Crude Oil - Still on the sidelines as we were looking for a spot to get short. This opportunity may have come and gone, but no bother, the markets are full of opportunity. I continue to look for lower crude prices.
U.S. Dollar Index - Continue to sit on the sidelines for more downside pressure in which we can establish a long position. I think the U.S. Dollar is going to be the surprise of 2007!
Lumber - Very close to our break even stop, but still holding onto the Long position. Look to roll out to the November Contract on any rally from here.
Soybeans - Move stop to 8.50 even to lock in profit. Beans should work lower from here and if they don't we want to look to capture some of the profit we have on the books.
Corn - Hold the Long Term Short Position
Crude Oil - Still on the sidelines as we were looking for a spot to get short. This opportunity may have come and gone, but no bother, the markets are full of opportunity. I continue to look for lower crude prices.
U.S. Dollar Index - Continue to sit on the sidelines for more downside pressure in which we can establish a long position. I think the U.S. Dollar is going to be the surprise of 2007!
COTTON - Long Trade
Cotton came very close to stopping us out today, but did not hit our stop.
Keep the stop in place and tight as this market needs to continue to prove itself.
Remember also that this is a very aggressive trade.
Keep the stop in place and tight as this market needs to continue to prove itself.
Remember also that this is a very aggressive trade.
EQUITY MARKET COMMENT
While the equity markets seem to be drifting away from our short term model that has worked so well, they currently look a bit weak.
I would look for the market to work lower to the support levels of 1423, 1413 and 1403.
The time frame for these prices remains at 8/30/07. As usual however, if the price objectives are met before this date then we still have the all clear to enter back into our short term Long and Call positions.
So currently I would continue to recommend caution in the equity markets.
I would look for the market to work lower to the support levels of 1423, 1413 and 1403.
The time frame for these prices remains at 8/30/07. As usual however, if the price objectives are met before this date then we still have the all clear to enter back into our short term Long and Call positions.
So currently I would continue to recommend caution in the equity markets.
Monday, August 20, 2007
Cotton - BUY
Cotton is looking good for the start of its move back above the most recent highs.
I will be keeping a close stop as it is make or break time.
I will be keeping a close stop as it is make or break time.
Blackstone - Offers Some Great Value
I did not like Blackstone at the IPO, but it is offering some great value in here.
Look to purchase on a test of the most recent lows.
Look to purchase on a test of the most recent lows.
Equity Market Comment
While I had expected a little harder day down in the S&P 500 today, the structure continues to follow the short term model.
The model continues to call for Tuesday to be a big down day and should set the low for the next couple of weeks.
This could be a great short term trading week as today was a good one.
I still am of the opinion that the Low is in place for equities and after a retest of these lows it should be off to the races. I don't see a 1987 scenario as I am starting to hear more and more of, but I am keeping my eyes and ears open just in case this scenario begins to show some validity.
The model continues to call for Tuesday to be a big down day and should set the low for the next couple of weeks.
This could be a great short term trading week as today was a good one.
I still am of the opinion that the Low is in place for equities and after a retest of these lows it should be off to the races. I don't see a 1987 scenario as I am starting to hear more and more of, but I am keeping my eyes and ears open just in case this scenario begins to show some validity.
Targets for Short Term Trade
The chart below should give some grest ideas as to when to get out of your short term long positions.
Watch the 50% and 62% areas very closely.
Watch the 50% and 62% areas very closely.
Short Term Trade - Long
Downside target achieved.
Go long with a stop just below the most recent lows at 1430.61.
1429.80 would be a good stop point.
Take profits on any sharp rally! This is going to be a hit and run trade.
Go long with a stop just below the most recent lows at 1430.61.
1429.80 would be a good stop point.
Take profits on any sharp rally! This is going to be a hit and run trade.
Short Term Trade Opportunity
While today and Tuesday should prove to be sharply lower, there still will remain short term opportunities.
One such opportunity seems to be emerging.
One such opportunity seems to be emerging.
Sunday, August 19, 2007
Weekend Equity Market Comment
A wild week in the equity markets would be putting it mildly, but behind what seemed to be chaos and lack of order, there emerged a bottom.
I do not think this will be a V bottom however and quite honestly I think most of the initial thrust off the lows was completed on Friday. There may be some slight follow through on Monday and actually that would be very healthy, but I really think that this week is going to be a very volatile week.
Take a look at the short term equity model forecast for what the week might hold in the cards.
This model is only a guide and should be used as such, but it has been very good to me lately and I have no reason to doubt it.
Until we hash out this entire bottoming process I am going to keep my intermediate term outlook as Neutral. Long Term will remain Bullish and Short Term as of now is leaning towards bearish.
This bottoming process should give us all plenty of time to slowly remove our hedged equity positions and begin to start the selective process of what to purchase next, as I really do think that once this bottoming process is in the next leg up could be a barn burner!
I do not think this will be a V bottom however and quite honestly I think most of the initial thrust off the lows was completed on Friday. There may be some slight follow through on Monday and actually that would be very healthy, but I really think that this week is going to be a very volatile week.
Take a look at the short term equity model forecast for what the week might hold in the cards.
This model is only a guide and should be used as such, but it has been very good to me lately and I have no reason to doubt it.
Until we hash out this entire bottoming process I am going to keep my intermediate term outlook as Neutral. Long Term will remain Bullish and Short Term as of now is leaning towards bearish.
This bottoming process should give us all plenty of time to slowly remove our hedged equity positions and begin to start the selective process of what to purchase next, as I really do think that once this bottoming process is in the next leg up could be a barn burner!
Commodity Update
SUGAR - Looking for a place to get back on the long side. Our first attempt was met with a stop out and a loss of $275 per contract.
LUMBER - Came very close to our sell stop, but did not make it. We remain long from 274.
COTTON - Continue to look for a final rally to new highs in cotton to put a low risk short sale into place. On the aggressive short term front look to go long right in here for the final thrust up. The final downside target was 56.93 and it touched 56.95 on Friday. I am not going to quibble about 2 ticks!
SOYBEANS - Short from 8.70 1/4, Stop at break-even. Remain short.
CORN - Hold Long Term Short Position
CRUDE OIL - Stopped out of the short Friday for a loss of $312. We will be looking for yet another opportunity to sell short.
U.S. Dollar Index - Pull back we have been looking for may have begun on Friday. Look to buy the weakness. Targets for position initiation will be posted Monday.
HOGS - Hogs remain on the watch list, but nothing yet to make us jump in.
LUMBER - Came very close to our sell stop, but did not make it. We remain long from 274.
COTTON - Continue to look for a final rally to new highs in cotton to put a low risk short sale into place. On the aggressive short term front look to go long right in here for the final thrust up. The final downside target was 56.93 and it touched 56.95 on Friday. I am not going to quibble about 2 ticks!
SOYBEANS - Short from 8.70 1/4, Stop at break-even. Remain short.
CORN - Hold Long Term Short Position
CRUDE OIL - Stopped out of the short Friday for a loss of $312. We will be looking for yet another opportunity to sell short.
U.S. Dollar Index - Pull back we have been looking for may have begun on Friday. Look to buy the weakness. Targets for position initiation will be posted Monday.
HOGS - Hogs remain on the watch list, but nothing yet to make us jump in.
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