EQUITY MARKET COMMENT - 6/16/2008

Remember, we are only looking for a counter trend rally in here before yet another sharp sell off.

Currently it appears that the market is quite close to the 50% and 62% upside targets for the counter trend rally, so if you had planned on playing the rally now is not a good time to even make this attempt.

On the ultra short term trend, the market movement and the days close indicate a high probability of Tuesday being a down day. Not the start of the next leg down, but a tradeable move on the short side just the same. Look for the week to have a general upward bias as we complete the counter trend rally in the 1375 to 1387 area on the cash S&P 500.

Intermediate term traders will be looking to get short once again once these price levels have been obtained. If you still have some volatile issues on the long side of your portfolio then use the muted strength we may see this week to either sell them outright or hedge them with options.

The main focus here is that the market remains mired in a bear market and until we see signs otherwise, we need to trade it as such by selling strength and being very careful if we try and trade the counter trend rallies.