Since the 2001-2003 Tech Bubble the moving averages on this indicator have been making higher highs and higher lows.
I interpret this as a bullish indication of a lack of investor conviction about this entire rally from October 2002. It is as if the uninformed money is simply waiting for the other shoe to drop or at the very least keeping a strong hedged equity position.
I have also overlayed the S&P 500 on the chart below along with the moving averages of the CBOE Put/Call ratio. This will help you to see the correlation of high bullish and high bearish sentiment at different market junctures. Please click on the chart and check it out!
If you have a different take on the analysis, please feel free to let it rip, I am always very open-minded.
Good Luck on Your Trading!!
The P/C ratio is activity, correct? How do we know that the recent flurry isn't put selling, capturing the elevated vols of the last couple of weeks? Just a thought? Unfortunately there's not a P/C based on positions. I'd take a close look at vix to see if that jibes with high levels of put buying. I'm not dis-agreeing that there could certainly be folks buying puts and remaining bearish, but P/C ratios don't necessarily "prove" it. The CFTC reports do show elevated shorts returning after a considerable period of net long specs (as of last tuesday). It will be interesting to see today's report, even more interesting to see next week's after the strong rally wednesday!
ReplyDeleteHave a great weekend.
JA
Dear JA,
ReplyDeleteThanks much for your insights and your visit to my blog, I sincerely appreciate it.
What I was trying to get across with the weekly put call ratios, was a longer term shift towards a bearish or hedged stance. Not necessarily on a short term basis of the last few weeks, but the last few years. Of course, the indicator may have established a new range and that is something I have been looking at.
You mentioned the C.O.T. numbers.
If you have not already, go to www.timingcharts.com and check out their site. You can make your own C.O.T. index with variables of your choice. I also have a link to their site on my blog.
Once again, thanks much for your insight and feel free to come back anytime and agree or refute my analysis.
Sincerely,
Matthew Ash
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